The Colorado Avalanche dismantled the Winnipeg Jets 5-1 in Game 4 of their first-round series and took a commanding 3-1 series lead to put the Jets on the brink of elimination. The Avalanche – and goaltender Alexandar Georgiev – hunkered down after a demoralizing 7-6 loss in Game 1 and outscored the Jets 16-5 in the following three games, winning all three by a margin of at least three goals.
The most surprising development is the play of Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, who is in line to win his second career Vezina Trophy but has been uncharacteristically poor to start the postseason. He ranks 13th in save percentage (SV%) and 15th in goals-against average (GAA) out of 16 qualified goaltenders (minimum two games played), while also being near the bottom in goals saved above expected (GSAx).
There is little room for error in the crease in a short series lasting between four to seven games. It’s a harsh lesson that the Jets have learned in unforgiving fashion.
Though the Avalanche have outscored (15-10) and out-chanced (57% share) the Jets at even strength, much of the difference has come in the realm of special teams play. Colorado’s power play has been unstoppable, generating momentum at key points throughout the series while their penalty kill has held steady in the face of a Jets power play which fired at a 26% clip during the month of April (ninth in the league over that time).
I highlighted the effectiveness of the power play as one of the Avalanche’s keys to success against the Jets prior to the start of the series and in tandem with the penalty kill, has bore fruit through the first four games – let’s dive in.
Avalanche Power Play Firing on All Cylinders
The Avalanche entered the playoffs with the fifth-best power play in the NHL during the regular season, converting on 24.5% of their opportunities (fifth in the league). That trend has continued to start the postseason with the Avalanche scoring at least one goal on the power play in three of the first four games of the series.
In total, the Avalanche have scored on six of their 15 total opportunities (40%) to rank fourth in the first round by efficiency and sit behind only the Edmonton Oilers (53.3%), Vegas Golden Knights (50%), and the Boston Bruins (46.2%).
| Game # | Single Game | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2/2 (100%) | 2/2 (100%) |
| 2 | 0/3 (0%) | 2/5 (40%) |
| 3 | 2/6 (33.3%) | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| 4 | 2/4 (50%) | 6/15 (40%) |
While just having the power play firing on all cylinders is positive in isolation, its impact has been magnified by the game situation in which they have scored. Game 1 was a write-off despite going a perfect 2/2 with the man advantage, but in both Game 3 and Game 4, the Avalanche’s power play has significantly tilted the ice in their favor.
The Jets took a 2-1 lead into the third period of Game 3 but promptly conceded a pair of powerplay goals in the first five minutes of the final frame after a number of penalties, the initial two of five unanswered goals by the Avalanche.
The Avalanche power play broke a 1-1 deadlock in the second period of Game 4, and also capitalized in the final minute of the frame to give Colorado a commanding 4-1 lead heading into the third.
The Jets had two clear-cut opportunities to wrench back control of the series but a lack of discipline, disorganization while shorthanded, and sub-par play from Hellebuyck have resulted in uninspiring performances in key moments.
The Avalanche have demonstrably worked a Jets penalty kill which ranked 21st in the regular season (77.1%), with the goals a logical conclusion of creating shots and chances at a frenzied pace.
| Statistic (For Per-60) | Avalanche | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 72.1 | 2nd |
| Scoring Chances | 80.7 | 3rd |
| High-Danger Chances | 40.4 | 4th |
| Expected Goals | 11.4 | 5th |
The usual suspects have driven the Avalanche’s success on the power play, with five skaters posting at least one point with the man advantage.
Superstar defenseman Cale Makar has tallied four such points (one goal and three assists) to tie him with Evan Bouchard among blueliners, but he leads all defenders in all-situations scoring in these playoffs with eight points. His output through four games has also put him in the company of Bobby Orr.
Nathan MacKinnon, a presumptive Hart Trophy finalist this season, is tied for third among all skaters with five points (one goal and four assists) on the power play.
Despite likely still feeling the lingering effects of a concussion suffered near the end of the regular season, winger Mikko Rantanen has tallied two assists with the man advantage and has grown into the series.
Apart from the proverbial big three, Valeri Nichushkin (three powerplay goals) and Artturi Lehkonen (one goal and one assist) have both provided much-needed depth scoring and have this Avalanche outfit looking closer to its zenith in the 2022 Playoffs. It’s Nichushkin’s net-front presence in particular that has wreaked havoc around the Jets’ crease, with the Russian winger tied for the playoff lead in goals on the power play.
If they hope to extend this run and challenge for another Stanley Cup, that type of production will have to continue. Judging by the outcome of the first four games, it’s in no danger of stopping.
Avalanche Penalty Kill Holding Strong in Key Moments
When it was announced that utility winger Logan O’Connor had been ruled out for the remainder of the season, there was doubt that the Avalanche could fully replace their leading penalty-killing forward.
In response, general manager Chris MacFarland attempted to recreate O’Connor in the aggregate, trading for Yakov Trenin and Brandon Duhaime to supplement the weakened penalty kill. While Duhaime hasn’t seen much shorthanded usage in the postseason, Trenin leads all Avalanche forwards in average ice time on the penalty kill (2:15 per game) and has spearheaded a surprisingly effective shorthanded effort.
| Game # | Single Game | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1/2 (50%) | 1/2 (50%) |
| 2 | 3/3 (100%) | 4/5 (80% |
| 3 | 1/2 (50%) | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| 4 | 4/4 (100%) | 9/11 (81.8%) |
Since the Game 1 debacle, the Avalanche have killed off eight of the Jets’ nine power plays in Games 2 through 4, denying their opponents any chance of generating momentum and mounting a comeback in what could be a last stand for this Winnipeg core.
With the Jets holding an early 1-0 lead in Game 2, the Avalanche took a pair of penalties in the middle of the first period. Instead of conceding a goal or two, which would have given the Jets both a multi-goal lead in the game and potentially a massive 2-0 lead in the series, Colorado’s penalty kill emerged unscathed from both infractions and remained within a goal heading into the first intermission.
Duhaime took a penalty late in the third period with the score sitting at 4-2. It’s not inconceivable that the Jets could have scored and applied a ton of pressure in the hopes that the Avalanche would capitulate, but the penalty kill stood tall and maintained the two-goal lead before Nichushkin iced the game with an empty-net tally.
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Game 4 was much of the same, with an unsuccessful challenge after the Jets tied the game at 1-1 leading to an Avalanche delay-of-game penalty. In a position to take the lead, Winnipeg’s power play once again came up empty and instead uplifted the Colorado bench. A pair of penalties in the third period gave the Jets two chances to put a dent in the Avalanche’s 4-1 lead, but they failed and Nichushkin later completed his hat-trick with another empty-net goal.
The discrepancy in special teams success is best illustrated by a statistic that seems almost too far-fetched to be true. Through four games, the Jets’ power play has only scored one more goal (two) than the Avalanche’s penalty-killers, with Devon Toews scoring a short-handed goal on an empty net in Game 3.
It’s not just stellar goaltending from the much-improved Georgiev that’s kept the Jets’ offensive weapons at bay. The Avalanche’s penalty kill has effectively shielded their wounded netminder in terms of both volume and quality with disciplined forechecking and careful stickwork.
| Statistic (Against Per-60) | Avalanche | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 40 | 5th |
| Scoring Chances | 30.8 | 1st |
| High-Danger Chances | 9.2 | 1st |
| Expected Goals | 5 | 3rd |
There is a reason why the media, fanbases, front offices, and any other organizational decision-makers harp on acquiring players who can supplement and bolster their special teams. Results in those game states can swing a game or a series, and the Avalanche have found themselves on the positive side of the ledger in this Central Division clash.
Avalanche Poised to Advance to Second Round
The NHL playoffs provide an experience that is unparalleled in the wide world of sports with unpredictability serving as an underlying theme of the annual postseason bonanza.
The Jets are not a pushover and the Avalanche should not get ahead of themselves until win number four is secured. Winnipeg finished fourth in the overall league standings for good reason, tying for the NHL lead in goals against per game and having one of this generation’s greatest goaltenders in the fold.
Many teams have come back from a 3-1 series deficit before, and the Avalanche’s first-round implosion at the hand of the Seattle Kraken a year ago should serve as a dire warning. Special teams have contributed to a commanding lead, and will need to deliver once more for the Avalanche to close out the series in Game 5.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and the NHL.