The Columbus Blue Jackets are not looked at favorably when it comes to their chances in 2024-25. Most every Vegas book and oddsmaker has them finishing last in the Metropolitan Division.
It doesn’t just end there. Many hockey experts feel the Blue Jackets will once again struggle once the new season starts. Even Bleacher Report tried projecting the order of the 2025 NHL Draft. The Blue Jackets held the first pick.
It’s obvious that the vast majority of pundits believe it’s going to be a long season on the corner of Front and Nationwide in downtown Columbus. The question we are going to consider today in Part 5 of our Summer series is two-fold. Why are they so down on the Blue Jackets? And then we’ll ask what factors could help the team exceed what little expectations there are.
Reasons Why Experts Predict Last Place
State of Goaltending/Defense
The Blue Jackets will be running it back in net with some combination of Elvis Merzlikins and Daniil Tarasov. Should something happen to one of them, Jet Greaves appears to be first in line for a callup.
Coming off consecutive 300-goals against seasons isn’t going to give anyone confidence. The Blue Jackets are turning to the same tandem to make a vast improvement.
Considering a lot of the same defense is coming back too, most experts are not sure where the improvement will come from. It’s the same top-four, Zach Werenski, Ivan Provorov, Damon Severson, Erik Gudbranson along with the likes of Jack Johnson, David Jiricek, Denton Mateychuk or Jake Christiansen filling in the rest of the group.
While on the surface this seems less than ideal, there are a couple of reasons to be cautiously optimistic. First, there is the familiarity factor. The 2023-24 season proved to be the first season with that top-four together. Coming back and knowing what to expect in Season 2 points to some improvement.
But then second, and something that will be interesting to watch in the new season, is the impact of new head coach Dean Evason on the Blue Jackets. His teams are known to play a system that is low-event hockey and much more structured than what the team previously had.
While there will certainly be an adjustment taking place, the Blue Jackets could look much different in that regard once they get settled in. If they are able to adapt to Evason’s system and play a tighter-checking game, that could lead to fewer shots against and an easier workload for the goaltenders.
The Blue Jackets did make a couple significant changes to the defense in the offseason when they moved on from both Adam Boqvist and Jake Bean. This will allow them the option to start both Jiricek and Mateychuk on the big club should their Training Camp performance warrant it.
Ultimately, this will be a team effort that decides if there’s enough improvement on defense to make a significant improvement in the standings. If they buy into and adapt to Evason’s structure, they could surprise some people.
Enough Scoring?
Experts will look at the Blue Jackets and wonder if they’ll have enough scoring to keep up in the race. It’s a valid question especially given the Patrik Laine situation remains unresolved as of this writing.
Chances are a deal won’t net the Blue Jackets a goal scorer to the caliber of Laine. They do hope to get someone back who can play everyday and contribute. That remains to be seen what they can do.
We know Johnny Gaudreau will be near the top of their scoring. Sean Monahan will join him in the hopes of rekindling their chemistry from their days with the Calgary Flames.
A lot is going to depend on the talented youth. Is Adam Fantilli ready for a breakout in Year 2? What about Kent Johnson? He just signed a new three-year deal and is a big part of the future.
Others will have to step up. Kirill Marchenko, who could potentially see top-line duty comes to mind. Are we about to embark on a career season for Yegor Chinakhov? It’s a big year for him in particular.
Why can you be cautiously optimistic about this season’s Blue Jackets from an offensive standpoint? It’s because their center depth hasn’t been this deep ever.
It didn’t GM Don Waddell very long, but he was able to reshape the lineup in a way that center ice is no longer an issue. The Blue Jackets can now run out Monahan-Fantilli-Cole Sillinger-Sean Kuraly down the middle. This doesn’t include the likes of Boone Jenner or Dmitri Voronkov.
This lineup has the potential to be somewhat underrated given that center depth. Scoring could be a challenge at times. It is for most teams in spurts. But being able to put a lineup together with players in more natural positions will yield results. Laine is not playing center on this team.
It’s reasonable to expect an uptick in scoring just based on some key adjustments the team has made during the offseason.
State of the Metro
This is the area where most experts point to as the reason why the Blue Jackets are projected to finish last in their eyes. The rest of the division is pretty good.
The question they ask is which teams could reasonably finish below the Blue Jackets? Based on their projections, the answer is no one.
Luckily for everyone, the season isn’t played in projections or on a piece of paper. It’s decided on the ice. Any team is a major injury or two away from their season being flipped upside down.
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While there are reasons to believe the other teams in the Metro will be good, they all have concerns of their own. Will Matvei Michkov and the Flyers take the next step? How much do the Pittsburgh Penguins have left with their core? The Capitals added a lot of players. Will it translate on the ice? Will Jacob Markstrom meet the expectations in the Devils’ net? The Rangers and Hurricanes should be good. Can they stay healthy? How will the Islanders factor into all of this?
Here’s the bottom line. It’s all projections until it’s played on the ice. While the Blue Jackets have many questions facing them, it’s not a slam dunk that their season is already lost either. Certain variables working in their favor could lead to some surprises.
The Blue Jackets will enter 2024-25 under new leadership and refreshed looking to put the past as far behind them as possible. With Evason highly motivated to prove he’s a good coach, there is a path for these Blue Jackets to at least be in the playoff race come February or March.
The experts may eventually be right. But since it’s only August, it’s way too soon to call anything definitively.