There are now just two days left in the 2025-26 NHL regular season, and the Edmonton Oilers can still finish anywhere from first to fourth in the Pacific Division standings.
Edmonton’s final position will be determined by the results of a quartet of games: the Vegas Golden Knights vs. the Seattle Kraken on Wednesday (April 15), followed by the Oilers vs. the Vancouver Canucks, the Los Angeles Kings at the Calgary Flames, and the Anaheim Ducks at the Nashville Predators on Thursday (April 16).
The 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs are set to begin on Saturday (April 18), but captain Connor McDavid and his Oilers teammates won’t know who they’re playing in Round 1 until they exit the ice after hosting Vancouver at Rogers Place on Thursday night.
From Edmonton’s playoff seed to its first-round opponent, there are many possibilities. Here’s a look at every scenario:
How Oilers Finish First
There is only one scenario in which Edmonton can place first in the Pacific Division: Vegas must lose in regulation to Seattle on Wednesday, and the Oilers then have to beat Vancouver on Thursday.
While that seems simple enough, the Golden Knights are the overwhelming favourites against a Kraken team that is just playing out the string after being eliminated from playoff contention several days prior. Seattle winning – especially in regulation – would be a massive upset.
There’s a historical angle at play here, too: the Oilers have not finished atop their division standings since 1986-87, when they were part of the Smythe Division.
Should Edmonton end that 39-year drought, the Oilers would book themselves a first-round matchup with the Central Division’s Utah Mammoth, who have clinched the Western Conference’s first wild card spot.
How Oilers Finish Second
Assuming Vegas wins on Wednesday, the most likely scenario will see Edmonton place second in the Pacific Division. For that to happen, they need only to get a single point against a team they should be able to beat, the last-place Canucks.
Should the Oilers lose to Vancouver in regulation, Edmonton can still finish second if both Anaheim and Los Angeles lose their respective games. Those losses can be in either regulation or overtime.
If the Oilers end up in second place, they will have home ice advantage against the third seed, either Anaheim or Los Angeles. Edmonton hasn’t met the Ducks in the postseason since 2017, but has faced off against the Kings in Round 1 each of the last four years.
How Oilers Finish Third
In order for Edmonton to finish third, the Oilers must lose to Vancouver in regulation. Then, one of Anaheim and Los Angeles needs to win while the other must lose, in either regulation or overtime.
Related: Every Possible Opponent for the Oilers in Playoffs’ First Round
In that case, the team that wins would then jump into second place and secure home-ice advantage for a first-round series against the No. 3 seed Oilers.
How Oilers Finish Fourth
The last thing Edmonton wants to do is finish fourth in the Pacific Division, because that would drop the Oilers all the way down to the Western Conference’s second wild card position, where their first-round opponent would be the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche.
Fortunately for the Oilers, the chances of that happening are low. It would require the trifecta of Edmonton losing in regulation, Anaheim winning, and Los Angeles getting two points.
Edmonton has the benefit of controlling its own destiny for home ice advantage in Round 1. Regardless of what happens elsewhere, the Oilers will be hosting Game 1 of their best-of-seven first round series if they simply pick up one point against Vancouver.
The Oilers don’t want to rely on Anaheim or Los Angeles losing on Thursday. While the Ducks and Kings will both be on the road, they aren’t exactly facing the stiffest competition in Nashville and Calgary, two teams that will be missing the postseason.
The Oilers have never been part of a race like this, with so much coming down to the final 48 hours of the regular season. Thursday night will be exhilarating.
