The St. Louis Blues will begin the new season on Thursday, Oct. 12 on the road against the Dallas Stars. After starting last season at 3-0-0, the Blues quickly fell apart, losing eight in a row, and missed the playoffs by a boatload of points.
This is a crucial season for head coach Craig Berube and general manager (GM) Doug Armstrong as they try to guide the Blues back into playoff contention. Our team of Blues writers here at The Hockey Writers is here to preview and predict the season. This article covers predictions from myself, Stephen Ground, Mike Meyer, and Owen Singh.
Who Will Score the Most Points?
Ethan – Pavel Buchnevich
The one thing holding Pavel Buchnevich back from leading the Blues in points over the past two seasons has been not staying healthy. He has elite upside and the ability to score over 40 goals and record just as many assists. I would be surprised if he doesn’t surpass the 80-point mark this season.
Stephen – Jordan Kyrou
I think Jordan Kyrou will continue to lead the team in points, as he did last season, but I think he’ll take a step up from 75 to the 90 range.
Mike – Jordan Kyrou
This will be tough. If Buchnevich can stay healthy, it should be his for the taking. However, with Kyrou now at 25 years old and over 250 career NHL games could have him poised to surpass 40 goals and over a point per game pace.
Owen – Jordan Kyrou
Kyrou will begin another season as the Blues’ premier offensive talent, with his 75 points in 2022 and 73 points in 2023 both leading the team last season. Kyrou’s coveted ability to drive the play on the rush while posing a threat in his shot imposes disadvantages to defenders, whether through developing a shooting lane or allowing further puck advancement on the play. An entire season with the passing-attuned Robert Thomas should only bolster his overall production, which is already well sustainably by the product of his play.
Who Will be the Blues’ Most Valuable Player (MVP)?
Ethan – Robert Thomas
As the number one center, Robert Thomas is the Blues’ most important player. He’s set up for success with the likes of Buchnevich and Kyrou on the wing alongside him. He may not lead the team in scoring this season, but I expect him to be their MVP with his two-way performance and overall impact.
Stephen – Joel Hofer
Blues fans were too content with extremely poor goaltending last season, all too ready to blame it all on the defense. But Jordan Binnington hasn’t been serviceable for two seasons now. If that continues, at least the Blues have a better alternative than Thomas Greiss this season. While management probably doesn’t want to thrust Hofer into the spotlight too soon, his 2020 WJC performance proves that when the pressure is on, he usually performs at a high level.
Mike – Brayden Schenn
The Blues MVP this season will be Brayden Schenn. This is his team now after being named captain ahead of the season. He may not score the most points of any player on the roster but will lead by example. He has the capacity offensively and defensively to be a consistent 200-foot player who does what it takes to make him the team’s MVP.
Owen – Robert Thomas
Despite lacking the consistent play-attacking and shooting abilities required to be a particularly diverse offensive talent, Robert Thomas has continually displayed his ability to perform at a high-end, top-line level across all zones. A great possession sustainer in the offensive zone, Thomas directs the play with great control, occasionally even bending the speed and flow of the game through his possession and play-making style alongside the holistically excellent execution of his passing.
A down year defensively in 2022-23 is not a trait that is likely to repeat the next season, considering his typically quality defensive results across most of his career. The stability and control exercised by Thomas at his best may see him within the boundaries of an elite player by definition, allowing him to amplify his teammate’s production to levels near unrivaled in the league.
The Most Surprising Player
Ethan – Joel Hofer
The Blues need Joel Hofer to show out this season with the question marks surrounding Jordan Binnington’s play over the past couple of seasons. I believe he will surprise a lot of people with how NHL-ready he is at 23 years old.
Stephen – Torey Krug
Whether Blues fans like it or not, Torey Krug is here to stay, and he’s saying all the right things about why he invoked his no-trade clause this summer. Look for him to be ultra-motivated to succeed this season, as was Vladimir Tarasenko in a similar situation a few seasons ago. I believe Krug will have his best season yet as a Blue, but fans will have to be open-minded enough to see it.
Mike – Sammy Blais
Sammy Blais came back to St. Louis and took the return by storm scoring nine goals and 20 points in 31 games. If provided the opportunity, Blais has the chance to really be a true difference maker playing up and down the lineup.
Owen – Jakub Vrana
Jakub Vrana’s most recent full season came back in the 2020-21 season, with battles across several spectrums of his life preventing him from enjoying some of the promise instilled through his game. Now, Vrana has an opportunity to return to such heights in his upcoming first entire season with St. Louis, which was nicely previewed in a 20-game stint with the club last season.
Related: St. Louis Blues 2023-24 Player Projections: Jakub Vrana
While Vrana has perhaps fairly lacked the touting to his encouraging game, he will demand it across the season through his skating-centered shooting and play-driving. If he stays healthy, Vrana could legitimately instill himself as one of the Blues’ most important players, which would be incredibly convenient in supplying the production lost in the trades of Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly.
The Most Disappointing Player
Ethan – Justin Faulk
After a brutal defensive season in 2022-23, Justin Faulk is believed to be a bounceback candidate this season. However, I don’t see him reviving any of the defensive prowess that he showed in 2021-22. I hope to be wrong, but I’d be surprised if the 2021-22 version of Faulk shows up for a full season in 2023-24.
Stephen – Colton Parayko
To be blunt, it’s hard for any player on this team to be “disappointing,” considering the incredibly low bar most of them set for themselves last season. But the people still clinging to hope that Colton Parayko has another gear he can tap into and be a cornerstone defenseman will certainly be disappointed. This seems to be the player he is now. For better or worse.
Mike – Jake Neighbours
While the scapegoat for the team is Parayko at this point, the most disappointing player at the end of this season could be Jake Neighbours.
While the 21-year-old has performed well with the opportunities provided to him, his expectations set by fans may be a bit ahead of his NHL skill. Neighbours is a player who is not guaranteed an NHL spot this season and could even start the year with the Springfield Thunderbirds of the American Hockey League (AHL).
Owen – Jordan Binnington
Despite the desires of everyone around this club, there is no reasonable indication to suggest Binnington will return to the elite form merely hinted at after the 2019 Cup run. Discouragement is only amplified by the poor defensive structures around him, which apply additional pressure onto a goaltender who has not performed at an elite level in several seasons, and the fact he is approaching his age 31 seasons with a promising goaltender in Joel Hofer threatening the starting role on the team.
Final Team Points Tally & Playoff Prediction
Ethan – Miss (90 points)
I don’t expect the Blues to be a serious contender in the top three of the Central Division, but there’s no reason for them not to be a wild-card contender. However, I don’t believe this team will be good enough defensively or in net to get back into the playoffs.
Stephen – Miss (88 points)
About half the fanbase seems to think the team will magically take a big step forward without any significant roster changes this offseason. They will not. They probably slightly underperformed their talent last season (hence the jump from 81 to 88), but not significantly. This is not a playoff team. It’s a rebuilding team, and even if they overperform and make the postseason, they’re probably a first-round exit.
Mike – Miss (88 points)
Without a single change to the team’s defense that plagued them last year, this is a question that could see little to no change after this season. With two changes to the coaching staff, they could see a small bump in performance. However, they will need to show they are ready to commit more on the defensive side of the game before they can truly turn things around.
There’s an outside chance they make the second wild card spot. It will be tough for them to make the playoffs this year based on the competition in the Western Conference. The central division will be tough to predict but the Blues have the talent to secure a wild card spot. No, they do not make the playoffs. Final answer.
Owen – Make (94 points)
St. Louis may be an incredibly frustrating team at times this season, but the offensive talent oozing from the club should ultimately uphold the team in playoff contention (given that they remain healthy).
With how competitive the top half of the Central Division appears to be entering the season, between an Avalanche team among the best in the league and certifiable playoff contenders in the Stars and Wild, St. Louis is most reasonably projected to find themselves as a wild card team ranking fourth in the division. Usually, a position of this type would entail a team earning 90-98 points across the season; six of the eight wild card teams in the last two seasons finished within this interval, with three of those in the Western Conference.
Serious concerns with the back end of the team prevent this prediction from being truly ambitious. Perhaps the Blues steal a series by leveraging their high-end offensive talent or ride one of their goaltenders playing well in a stretch, but the lack of stability will result in a lack of sustainability for the club, leading to their ultimate demise. While it would be foolish to wholly reject a vision of cup contention, it is truthfully unlikely when assessing the current roster.
Blues Unlikely To Contend for a Stanley Cup in 2023-24
It’s pretty clear that the Blues won’t contend for a Stanley Cup this season, and perhaps even the playoffs. However, there’s reason for optimism moving forward with the number of young, high-upside forwards on the roster. It’ll be interesting to see how the Blues front office define “success” as the season approaches.
