As a rebuilding team rife with young talent, the Canadiens are progressing almost as a collective unit. Poised to improve in terms of points for the third straight season, the Habs may very well still miss the playoffs, but they’re going to realistically be a much better team as most of their players are projected to as well.
Related: Canadiens Realistically on the Rise in Atlantic Division in 2024-25
Of course, there are always exceptions. Some players who had decent seasons in 2023-24 probably won’t be able to build on that success. That’s just cold, hard logic. Here are the likeliest Canadiens candidates to regress in 2024-25:
5. Rafael Harvey-Pinard
In Rafael Harvey-Pinard’s defense, he gets ranked here as a direct result of an offseason injury. Normally, he wouldn’t make the cut, even if only by virtue of the underwhelming 10 points he scored in 45 games last season, albeit buried at the bottom of the lineup for large portions of it. It would be hard for him to not put up more simply based on the two goals he scored and his 7.7% shooting percentage (S%; after hitting 24.1% in 2022-23).
Now that Harvey-Pinard is out four months, though? This isn’t a reflection of his capability, just circumstances, of which he could become a victim. As his future with the organization had been hanging by a thread (looking at Jesse Ylonen, who didn’t even get qualified after scoring four goals), he’s at risk of losing his spot in the lineup altogether.
4. Brendan Gallagher
In sharp contrast, with a no-movement clause in his back pocket, Brendan Gallagher isn’t going anywhere. Part of the reason he has arguably the worst Canadiens contract heading into 2024-25 is because of it (and his $6.5 million hit). However, it’s because his 31-point season (77 games) in 2023-24 is kind of a best-case scenario moving forward.
Gallagher has only 31 goals over the last three seasons (170 games). He used to be good for that amount over a complete campaign. Based on the injuries he’s accumulated, it would almost be a miracle were he to play another, second straight complete season (with the five games he missed coming as a result of a suspension).
However, to his credit, Gallagher did just score a respectable 16 goals. In fact, finding chemistry with Joel Armia and Alex Newhook, he scored five goals and 10 points in his last eight games, but the Canadiens shouldn’t expect him to continue to score at that pace. If the Canadiens are even slightly healthier there won’t be the same spot at the top of the lineup available to him. Even if they aren’t and there is, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to make sustained good use of those minutes (production-wise) over an entire season, now that he’s yet one more year older.
3. Joel Armia
The story of Joel Armia’s 2023-24 season has been told to death at this point. To summarize, he found his way back to the NHL after initially getting cut, going on to impressively score a career-high 17 goals (66 games), earning recognition as the Canadiens’ candidate for the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy as a result. What’s one more time, I suppose?
Well, if we’re talking about repeating the season in question (and not the story of it), it’s a far bigger deal. Armia had scored 14 points in each of the previous two seasons (13 total goals). So, by scoring the career-high goals he did and almost doubling that overall output (25 points) in one year, he’s kind of set impossible expectations for 2024-25.
Armia does have the benefit of it only being 25 points. He’s scored more before, including with the Canadiens (30 in 2019-20). However, that was a long time ago, back when everyone had certain illusions of his ceiling as a former first-round draft pick.
Now, everyone has acknowledged Armia for what he is: a bottom-six, penalty-kill specialist, with sure, some offensive talent… but more inconsistency. Barring another string of injures, he’s not going to fall upward into a pseudo top-six role again. The hope for everyone’s sake is, with it being a contract year, the pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) finds another gear to earn big money. It’s unlikely he does though, even if he has realistically (re-)earned a roster spot at this point.
2. Jake Evans
Jake Evans is another player who was forced to play above his weight last season due to injury. Moving up from the role of de facto fourth-line centre, he similarly responded in kind with 28 points, one off the career-high 29 he notched in 2021-22 (when the Canadiens led the league in man-games lost).
It is possible Evans ends up with Gallagher and Josh Anderson as his linemates (the second-most-common combination in 2023-24) again… just probably not with the career-high 16:01 in ice time per game he got (when he played 14:29 in 2022-23). With the team’s centre-ice position set to comprise Nick Suzuki, a returning Kirby Dach, Christian Dvorak and Evans, there isn’t room for him to move up the lineup if the Canadiens stay healthy.
Even if the Canadiens trade Dvorak, who like Evans is another pending UFA, it would presumably be to give Newhook more of a look at centre instead. So, a victim of the organizational depth they have accumulated, which is a good thing, Evans is at a crossroads in his career and with the Habs, who also have centre Owen Beck knocking at the door.
There is unfortunately, for Evans, a scenario that plays out where he ends up the odd man out this season instead. However it plays out in reality though, it’s unlikely to make much of a difference. He needs ice time to produce at even a quasi-notable pace for an outside shot at earning an extension. He’s not in a position to get either one.
1. David Savard
You can understand why general manager Kent Hughes would want to hold onto David Savard, another pending UFA, up until the trade deadline. He’s the team’s lone stay-at-home presence on defense. He also brings veteran leadership. There’s also a relative shortage of righties, especially after he traded Johnathan Kovacevic to the New Jersey Devils.
The problem is, between the two pending UFAs, Hughes ideally would have kept Kovacevic. Maybe the Devils simply preferred him. However, what is abundantly clear is that Savard is unlikely to replicate his offensive performance of 2023-24, when he scored 24 points, which were the most he had scored since 2018-19 (when he also scored that much). Ditto for his six (eight) goals. The difference is he had the benefit of 82 games in 2018-19 to score that much with the Columbus Blue Jackets. He only played 60 in 2023-24.
If Savard weren’t 34, that might be cause for optimism he could sustain that success. However, his 11.1 S% says otherwise. So, to capitalize as much as possible on the offensive floodgates breaking, Hughes maybe should have traded him like yesterday. Of course, Savard does still have a lot going for him as a veteran with a Stanley Cup under his belt, even if he played a sixth-ranked 14:07 on defense on that 2021 Tampa Bay Lightning championship team (20:14 last season for the Canadiens).
Ultimately, Savard simply isn’t the top-pairing player he is on the Canadiens on other teams. And, even though this piece was written through the lens of how players will perform as members of the Habs this coming season, Savard just doesn’t have the track record or skill at this stage of his career to justify optimism in his ability to produce like he just did. The sooner he gets traded, presumably to a contender, that much will become much clearer.
