The Stanley Cup Playoffs begin on April 19, and there is still a lot to be determined when it comes to the wild card teams and what the exact matchups will be. As of March 29, thanks to a 5-1 win over the Seattle Kraken, the Dallas Stars have clinched a playoff spot and don’t have to worry about if they will be in, but who they will be playing.
The Stars have eight games remaining in the regular season and sit four points back of the Winnipeg Jets for first in the Central Division and eight points ahead of the Colorado Avalanche, who sit in third place in the division. Percentages certainly lean towards the Stars and Avalanche having an early rematch of last year’s second-round matchup, which the Stars won 4-2. However, if the Stars do find a way to win their division, they could play the Minnesota Wild or the St. Louis Blues. Mathematically, there’s still a chance the Calgary Flames or Vancouver Canucks could squeeze their way in, but the way the Blues are winning right now, it seems unlikely.
Related: Avalanche Likely to Face the Stars in the 1st Round of the Playoffs
If you’re a diehard NHL fan, or even a general fan, it might seem obvious that the Stars would love to skip the Avalanche in the first round if at all possible. If they do play Colorado, what does that matchup look like? What if they play the Wild or the Blues? Let’s dive in.
Dallas Stars’ Roster Heading Into the Postseason
Before we do, let’s take a quick look at where the Stars’ roster is as we head into game 75 on Thursday night. We’re not going to dwell too long on it, but rather the teams that they could be facing. If you are a Stars fan or follow our coverage at all, you’ve heard all about it.
Simply put, the Stars are really good and have saved their best hockey for the final few months of the season. Since Jan. 1, no team has won more, scored more, or had a better penalty kill. Not to mention, they have the third-best penalty kill. Here’s to hoping it’s not out of their system before the postseason starts. It hasn’t always looked pretty, especially recently. But they’re winning, and that’s what matters most.
The Stars have three 30-plus goal-scorers (Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, and Mikko Rantanen), and if Matt Duchene, who has 29, and Roope Hintz, 27, can score a little more in the next couple weeks, they’ll have five. Evgenii Dadonov, Jamie Benn, and Mason Marchment all have over 15 goals, and Mikael Granlund has 20. If Marchment hadn’t missed almost two months with an injury, he could have been pushing towards 30. Oh, and that Tyler Seguin guy is expected to be back at some point in the first round, maybe sooner.
On the back end, Miro Heiskanen’s absence is a big topic of conversation, and getting him back will be huge. Whenever that happens. That being said, Thomas Harley has stepped in beautifully, scoring 15 goals and 47 points, and helped revamp a power play that was anemic in the first half of the season.
Goaltender Jake Oettinger has had another terrific season, despite a few bumps in March. He is 35-15-3, with a .911 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.47 goals-against average (GAA).
Dallas Stars (2) vs. Colorado Avalanche (3)
First off, let’s compare these teams as a whole up until this point in the season. When looking at the team stats, the Stars seem to have the edge. Through 74 games, the Stars are second in the NHL in wins with 49. Through 75 games, the Avalanche are in a four-way tie for fourth with 45 wins. The Stars are fourth in the NHL with 252 goals scored, while the Avalanche are fifth with 249. The Stars have allowed only 187 goals, which is third in the league. The Avalanche sit just outside the top 10 in this category, sitting in 11th with 208 goals allowed. Head-to-head, the Stars are 1-1-1 against the Avalanche this season.
Special Teams: When it comes to special teams, these two teams are split down the middle. On the power play, the Avalanche have the edge at 25.4%, which is good for seventh in the league. The Stars are 13th at 22.5%. The Stars have the best penalty kill in the league at 84.7%. The Avalanche are 15th at 79.1%.
Home vs. Road: The home of the Avalanche, Ball Arena, has this reputation for being the kryptonite of every opposing team. While that can be true, the real truth is that the Stars have the better home record and would have home-ice advantage if the postseason started tonight. The Stars are 27-7-2 at home, while the Avalanche are 25-11-3. On the road, the Stars are 22-14-2, while the Avalanche are 20-15-1.
Roster: A big knock on Colorado heading into this season, and even dating back to before the 2024 Playoffs, was their depth and their goaltending. Credit to general manager Chris MacFarland, the Avalanche have completely revamped their roster on the fly as this season has progressed, completely changing both. They added Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle, and Jack Drury as a two, three, four punch down the middle of the ice, and the wings in the bottom six are much improved as well. Compared to Duchene, Johnston, and Mavrik Bourque for the Stars, who are the second, third, and fourth line centers, I would give a slight edge to Colorado when it comes to experience, but when it comes to skill, I trust the production that the Stars have down the lineup. Granlund has been playing both the center position and on the wing for the Stars as well.
There is no doubt that this offense lives and dies on the sticks of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. The former could win his second Hart Trophy and the Art Ross, and the latter could win the Norris Trophy. MacKinnon has 30 goals and 110 points, while Makar has 28 goals and 85 points. While MacKinnon is a horse that will just skate through you and barrel towards the crease, Makar is just as special defensively as he is offensively. Whatever edge you give the Stars, or any opponent they face, it has to have an asterisk beside it that says, ‘But the Avalanche have MacKinnon and Makar’.
While having both of them is clearly a blessing, the curse is that MacKinnon has contributed to 44% of their offense and Makar to 34%. That is a lot to put on two guys. Martin Necas’ production is right up there with Makar, scoring 26 goals and 80 points. After them, the next highest point getters are Nelson with 23 goals and 51 points and Artturi Lehkonen with 27 goals and 43 points, and they are the only other players to have over 20 goals and over 40 points. If Valeri Nichushkin plays for the rest of the regular season, he will have played in just over half of their games, and it’s safe to assume he’ll have more than 19 goals and 30 points.
Goaltending: Since coming over in a trade with the San Jose Sharks, Mackenzie Blackwood has taken the ball and run with it as the starting goaltender for the Avalanche. In 33 games with Colorado, Blackwood is 21-9-3, with a .919 SV% and a 2.14 GAA. Scott Wedgewood has played very well since coming over from the Nashville Predators as well, in case the Avalanche feels the need to go to him at some point in the playoffs. Wedgewood has a 10-4-1 record in 15 starts, with a .919 SV% and a 2.01 GAA. The only issue is that neither of them has started in the playoffs, and only Wedgewood has played in a playoff game. Take that for what it’s worth.
Prediction: Everything that you have read so far is fact. For the most part. Here is my opinion, for whatever it’s worth. Despite the Avalanche having arguably the best center and defenseman in the NHL, I would still give the edge to the Stars. Their production through four lines is much more reliable, and I would take the experience of Oettinger between the pipes over what we’ve seen from the Avalanche goaltending since the trades.
The only caveat here is the defense. As a whole, I do like the Stars’ defense better. However, if Heiskanen is not back from injury, the impossible task of containing MacKinnon and Makar is going to become that much harder.
Dallas Stars (1) vs. St. Louis Blues (WC 1/2)
If the Stars do win the division, it is most likely that they would be the No. 1 seed in the conference. But, since the Vegas Golden Knights are only four points back, that is not a guarantee, so the Stars could face either of the wild card teams. As of now, the Blues are in the first wild card spot but are only one point up on the Wild. Also, they are only five points behind the Avalanche for third in the Central, so I guess crazier things have happened. But for now, we’ll put them as a wild card team.
Since head coach Jim Montgomery’s first game with the Blues on Nov. 25, his team has been slowly climbing to what is now one of the hottest teams in the NHL. In their first 22 games, the Blues went 9-12-1 and were in the bottom third of the league in every category we mentioned in our previous matchup. In 54 games under Montgomery, the Blues are 32-16-6, the sixth-best record in that stretch. In those same 54 games, they are sixth in goals scored and seventh in goals allowed. Oh, and they’re currently on a 10-game winning streak. Despite not being in the top three of the division, this team is poised to give anyone they play in the playoffs some serious trouble.
Head-to-head, the Stars are 3-0-0 against the Blues this season.
Special Teams: As a whole, their special teams are still not great. On the power play, they are 19th in the NHL at 21.0%. On the penalty kill, they are at 73.4%, which is 28th.
Home vs. Road: Overall, their records at Enterprise Center and on the road are pretty good and almost exactly the same. They are 21-14-3 at home and 20-14-4 on the road.
Roster: This forward group is the definition of offense-by-committee. Yes, there are key guys like Jordan Kyrou, Rob Thomas, and Dylan Holloway who are leading the way, but the production really is as spread out as you can get. It’ll be interesting to see how Holloway carries his play into the playoffs. Kyrou’s 32 goals and 63 points are something the Blues need and rely on. It’s the same with Thomas’ 19 goals and 69 points. Holloway’s 26 goals and 63 points are a welcome surprise. The 23-year-old had nine goals and 18 points in 89 regular-season games with the Oilers, so calling this a ‘breakout season’ is the understatement of the century. He did have five goals and seven points in 25 playoff games last year, with seven of those being in the Stanley Cup Final, so this isn’t his first rodeo.
Defensively, this is a steady unit with some offensive upside, but not much. Colton Parayko is the offensive heartbeat of this D-core, but is out week-to-week, and it is unknown when he will come back. Aside from that, they’re not the deepest group, but they don’t have any glaring holes, either.
Goaltending: While his numbers might not jump off the page, Jordan Binnington is a Stanley Cup champion, and his performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off proved that he is finding his form once again. Binnington is 26-21-4, with a .902 SV% and a 2.66 GAA. Since Montgomery took over, to go back to that for a minute, Binnington is 20-12-3. Since the rest of the team is being judged by that timeline, it’s fair that he is as well.
Prediction: I would give the edge to the Stars here as well. From offensive depth to defensive depth to goaltending, all of it. However, this Blues team just will not lose right now. They have found new life and a new identity since Montgomery took over, and it really would not shock me if this team took down some juggernauts on the way to another Cinderella run.
Dallas Stars (1) vs. Minnesota Wild (WC 1/2)
The same can be said for the Wild as we said for the Blues. They could be the first or second wild card, or something crazy could happen, and they could jump into the three-hole. Again, for now, we will slot them as a wild card team.
The Wild were one of the best stories in the 2024 portion of this season. They entered the new year with a 23-11-4 record and were challenging for the division until injuries plagued the team, and they started to slip. Since Jan. 1, they are 18-17-2. If fully healthy, this team can still be a threat, but health is the absolute key.
They are 25th in the NHL in goals scored and 11th in goals against.
The Stars are 2-0-1 against the Wild this season.
Special Teams: Even if they are healthy, special teams might be what bites this team. The Wild are 21st with a 20.2% power play and 31st in penalty killing, sitting at 71.7%.
Home vs. Road: The Wild are one of those weird teams that are surprisingly better on the road than at home. They are 19-17-2 at home, and 22-11-4 away from Minnesota.
Roster: This roster is built to get a lead and hold onto it. They have only three 20-goal-plus scorers, and one of them, Kirill Kaprizov, is out until who knows when. Joel Eriksson Ek is another player who would be a 20-goal scorer, but injuries have hit him hard this season as well. In their absence, Matt Boldy, 25 goals and 63 points, and Marco Rossi, 22 goals and 55 points, have stepped up to carry the load.
Defensively, this is a very tight unit. Specifically, their top four. Again, health is going to be the key. Jared Spurgeon, Jake Middleton, and Jonas Brodin have all missed time this season, and for this team to have a shot, this unit has to get healthy as well.
Goaltending: Filip Gustavsson had a season to forget in 2023-24, especially the first half. This season, he has bounced back and had a really nice year. He is 29-17-5, with a .917 SV% and a 2.50 GAA.
Prediction: It’s a shame that the Wild haven’t been healthier this season. Based on the first half, they were on the way to being a real conversation this postseason. I know I’ve mentioned health a lot when it comes to this team, but it really is the biggest reason why it’s hard to envision them doing any sort of damage come April 19. I would probably favor the Stars regardless, but health just solidifies that position.
Cup or Bust for the Stars
After losing in the Western Conference Final two years in a row, the Stars are ready to make that final push to the Stanley Cup Final. Yes, there are some more favorable matchups than others, but the expectations are still the same, and they are in the perfect position to get the job done. On top of these three teams, if they win the first round, they may have to play the Jets in Round 2. But that’s a conversation for another day.
