With the Anaheim Ducks (6-4) off to a surprisingly hot start going into November, we have to look at what’s changed over last season. New head coach Greg Cronin is proving to be leaps and bounds a better tactician than his predecessor. A renewed commitment to the defensive side has kept the puck out of their net and final scores much closer. Offensively, they’ve jumped up to 3.3 goals per game — middle of the pack, but a stark contrast from a 31st-ranked 2.51 a season ago.
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While there’s plenty of praise to spread around, a lot of Anaheim’s strongest contributors have come from their group of rookies. The Ducks’ rebuild has finally started to see tangible results at the NHL level. Lukas Dostal, Leo Carlsson, and Pavel Mintyukov have been great to start the season, and all three could receive buzz for the Calder Trophy this year.
This year’s Calder class promises to be one of the strongest in years. The Chicago Blackhawks’ Connor Bedard is the odds-on favorite to take home the trophy, but he’ll be forced to be great with the likes of Logan Cooley, Adam Fantilli, Marco Rossi, and several other promising rookies right behind him. Even in a crowded race, I do expect some of the Ducks’ rookies to shine and generate legitimate Calder buzz.
Lukas Dostal
Having appeared in over 20 games for the Ducks over the last two seasons, it’s easy to forget Lukas Dostal is still Calder-eligible. Goaltenders are rarely seriously in the mix for Rookie-of-the-Year honors, with Steve Mason being the position’s most recent recipient back in 2008-09.
Team success plays a huge role in how goaltenders are viewed. The Buffalo Sabres’ Devon Levi is one of the favorites for the Calder this year, but his chances are tethered to how well the Sabres play this season. Being the goaltender that breaks a franchise’s decade-plus-long playoff drought is a strong narrative, and the award’s voting body (the Professional Hockey Writers Association) loves a good story.
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Dostal has already earned some flowers by being named the Rookie of the Month for October by the NHL. Even before John Gibson’s injury on Oct. 30, early signs point to Dostal receiving a more regular workload than Anaheim’s backup has seen in recent years. And while Gibson has mostly shaken the “injury-prone” tag that followed him early in his career, his explosive style in net will make him vulnerable to soft-tissue injuries as he enters his 30s.
It’s an impossible situation to predict in November. Still, if Anaheim maintains their pace while Dostal shoulders a majority of the work in net, he’ll have a case for the Calder not too dissimilar to Levi.
Leo Carlsson
There’s no wider range of outcomes than Leo Carlson’s Calder chances. On one hand, Anaheim’s development plan for him has held him out of games and will continue to do so. But when he’s on the ice, he has the keys to the Ferraris — centering the top line featuring Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras. Terry’s hat trick on Wednesday (Nov. 1) was the line’s most productive night so far, but a 61.2 Corsi For percentage in all situations implies the line is getting plenty of opportunities that should eventually be cashed in.
Carlsson’s biggest obstacle to Calder buzz will be that he plays the same position as Bedard. He’ll have to convincingly outperform the generational prospect in what will likely be fewer opportunities. It’s not terribly likely, but well within the realm of possibility with 72 games remaining.
Pavel Mintyukov
Anaheim’s most outstanding rookie so far has been Pavel Mintyukov. The 10th overall pick in the 2022 Draft, he won a roster spot in training camp and has played a significant role in the Ducks’ defensive turnaround from a season ago.
Despite still being a teenager, he’s shown incredible poise on both ends of the ice. A first-period shift against the Arizona Coyotes on Nov. 1 showcased several of his skills. He used his body to separate the veteran Matt Dumba off the puck, led a breakout the other way and sent a backhand off the post that was promptly cleaned up by Terry. His seven points (one goal, six assists) are tied for third-most among rookies.
As a defenseman, Mintyukov doesn’t necessarily need to outproduce forwards like Bedard, Cooley, or Fantilli, but he’ll have to make the case for a better all-around season. That’s a tall order from such a demanding position — only three of the last 13 Calder winners came from the blue line.
Mintyukov Should Maintain Calder Pace
Mintyukov’s strong start has already vaulted him into the Calder conversation. I would expect this buzz to continue as his role expands. He’s already quarterbacking the top power play unit and only trails Cam Fowler and Jackson LaCombe in ice time.
Regardless of their chances at the Calder, Anaheim’s future is in good hands. A bright sign in their rebuild can be found in the overtime period on Nov. 1. All three rookies — Dostal, Carlsson, and Mintyukov were on the ice at the beginning of 3-on-3 play.
Advanced statistics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
