Early on in the 2023-24 NHL season, both the Philadelphia Flyers and 25-year-old goaltender Carter Hart alike have had incredible success. With both of them having their best seasons in quite some time, it might seem as though the netminder has to remain with the team as long as possible.
A restricted free agent (RFA) at the end of the season, Hart and the team have to make a decision on the contract. Fortunately, his youth makes him a prime candidate to remain with the team for a while. However, the Flyers’ young goaltending behind him puts his long-term future in Philadelphia in some jeopardy. It hasn’t always been the case, but the goaltending in Philadelphia is one of their biggest strengths.
In the end, Hart might be the odd man out, given the fact that he is the oldest of the potential starting goaltenders that might arise. What netminders could be the future, and what does that mean for him?
Alexei Kolosov
If any goaltender in the organization has a chance to be even better than Hart, it can be found in Alexei Kolosov. In the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) last season, the Belarussian netminder was sitting at a solid .912 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.55 goals-against average (GAA) despite having a subpar 13-21-5 record. This time around, he’s doing much of the same with a .911 SV% and a 2.28 GAA, holding a record of 11-12-0.
The 21-year-old has been a mainstay in goal for his Dinamo Minsk club. He likely won’t be ready to come over to North America until at least next season, but he has the potential to be a starter in the NHL somewhere down the line. It’s not easy to directly correlate KHL output to what he would produce in the NHL, but the intangibles are there.
It has remained true since Kolosov was selected in the third round of the 2021 NHL Draft that he is both solid with positioning and possesses elite quickness. His athleticism is NHL-caliber at this very moment. There is definitely some maturation that needs to be done to get him up to the standards of the most difficult hockey league to perform in, but everything is in place for him to do that. His style is exciting, and it might only be a couple of seasons before he’s ready to take his game to the next level.
Carson Bjarnason
Selected in the second round of the 2023 NHL Draft, the Flyers felt highly of Western Hockey League (WHL) netminder Carson Bjarnason. The 18-year-old has a subpar .900 SV% and 3.20 GAA, but those don’t speak to how well he has played. He’s had some highs and lows, but his Brandon Wheat Kings squad has used him heavily all season. Sitting at just under two dozen starts, he’s handled a sizable workload.
Since Bjarnason is so young, the expectation should be that there are some inconsistencies. He’s had a few exceptional games this season, but the WHL is simply a difficult league for a goaltender to play in; that drops his numbers. His .900 SV% puts him around league average, so there still shouldn’t be concerns with him right now.
Related: Flyers Farm Report: Sandström, Petersen, Gahagen, and More
With Bjarnason being 18 years of age, the wait for him to come over to the NHL — assuming he does at all — could be four or five more seasons. That should be plenty of time for him to develop and get him ready for the future.
Yegor Zavragin
Yegor Zavragin, a third-round selection in the 2023 NHL Draft by the Flyers, is looking like a fantastic pick so far. The Russian netminder hasn’t quite made his way to the KHL, yet given his age, but he has dominated both the Junior Hockey League (MHL) and All-Russian Hockey League (VHL). Both those leagues are steps below the KHL, but he has been incredible in them.
In the MHL, serving as the easiest of the two leagues, Zavragin has a .945 SV% with a 1.63 GAA; he has essentially been unstoppable within his age group. Going to the VHL, which contains some older players, it has been much of the same. Riding a .957 SV%, a 1.11 GAA, and an undefeated 8-0-0 record, Zavragin has been incredible. Sooner rather than later, he will be ready for the KHL to take his game up another notch.
Sam Ersson
Getting to the man of the hour, 24-year-old goaltender Sam Ersson has taken over the reins on several occasions during Hart’s extended periods of absence this season. After a slow start in October, he has been dominant when given the chance to perform.
From his appearances in goal from Nov. 1 through Dec. 19, he has held a SV% of .924. He started off the season as one of the league’s worst performers in terms of goals saved above expected (GSAx) but has since leveled off what was a disastrous start to the season. Though he is not much younger than Hart, Ersson has the potential to be a true starter for the Flyers.
Ersson doesn’t hold the same amount of star power as someone like Hart, but he does hold his own in net. The team around him hasn’t been shy in letting him face breakaways and odd-man rush chances, but he has been cool as a cucumber recently.
At this point, Ersson isn’t going to take over Hart’s job unless the latter misses more time. The main takeaway should be that he is more than capable of handling a starter’s workload. Through the Flyers’ first eight games of December, Ersson started five of them. Over the course of a full 82-game season, that would place him at 51 games in total — around what a starting goaltender would play.
Ersson isn’t perfect, but he is one of the hottest goaltenders in the league at this moment. It is abnormal for a true backup to be as good as he has played, so perhaps calling him one is inaccurate to his skill level. If the opportunity presented itself, he could truly be the full-time starter for an NHL team.
What This Means for Hart
Hart could be the best of all these goaltenders when their peak or prime is considered, but the Flyers need to maximize their trade value as much as possible. By hanging onto him for his entire prime, they will be minimizing what they can get in exchange for him down the line.
Instead of using the assets they could get in a Hart-centered trade to build around the offense or defense, they would essentially be putting their sensational prospects in net to waste. That risk would only pay off if one of the aforementioned goaltenders takes the next step, but chances are that they do. Hart is sensational and will likely be elite for years to come, but the return for him could help round out the Flyers’ prospect depth.
The good news for the Flyers is that not only will it take a bit for their young netminders to become starter-worthy in the NHL, but Hart is young enough to where they can give him an extension and ride out his success for the next few seasons. With that being said, it might be unwise to keep him in Philadelphia through his 30s. By that point, the Flyers’ youngsters will be more than ready to take the spotlight. There is star potential in some of them.
Trading a goaltender like Hart isn’t an easy thing to do. Not only has he overseen some of the worst seasons of the Flyers in recent memory, but he was one of the bright spots on some of those teams. He’s no longer the same 20-year-old phenom when he entered the league. Not only has he evolved, but the organization around him has, too. With goaltenders in the prospect pool galore, he does not have to be the franchise goaltender in Philadelphia for the rest of his career for the team to achieve success.