Flyers Gash Playoff Hopes by Demoting Emil Andrae

This one was a shocker. On Dec. 20, the Philadelphia Flyers sent 22-year-old defenseman Emil Andrae down to the American Hockey League (AHL).

Usually, there’s at least some rational explanation for why something like this occurs. A cold streak, not earning enough ice time, and similarly not being a qualified NHL player can get someone sent down to the minors. Unfortunately for Andrae, he was mainly a victim of the team needing “flexibility”, per Jordan Hall of NBC Sports Philadelphia.

But it shouldn’t have come down to that. Parting ways for an extended period of time puts a roadblock in the Flyers’ chances of making the postseason, perhaps even eliminating the possibility altogether. They are 14-15-4.

Related: Dear Santa: Philadelphia Flyers’ 2024-25 Wish List

That may sound dramatic, but that has been Andrae’s impact. Let’s look at the potential ramifications this decision could have, assuming it’s not a short-term one. We’ll look at some numbers, explain them, and go into his importance as a member of the Orange and Black.

Andrae Is Essential to the Flyers

Some numbers back up just how important Andrae is to the Flyers. In fact, he may have entered the Travis Konecny, Matvei Michkov, and Travis Sanheim realm of necessity to the roster. Of course, none of those players would touch the AHL even if they were exempt from waivers like the youngster is.

How can one make that assertion, though? Well, let’s get into some hockey analytics real quick. You may have heard of it, but expected goals percentage (xGF%) is a measure of on-ice dominance, essentially. When a team has plenty of golden opportunities but runs into a hot goalie, for example, they get rewarded for that with a high xGF%. With uncontrollable (and generally luck-based) factors like shooting and save percentage out of the picture, the stat shows how well a particular player is doing.

Another notable statistic to track is relative xGF% (xGF% Rel). Not every team is created equal, so some players are more or less doomed to be outplayed by the opposition—hockey is a team sport. Conversely, guys on top-of-the-line rosters may not have to do much to have a great rating. So, the solution is xGF% Rel—how much better (or worse) are you than most of your teammates?

Among defensemen with 300 minutes of ice time at 5-on-5, Andrae has the best xGF% Rel in the league. Relative to other members of the Orange and Black, his xGF% is through the roof. Surely, it’s not like the three players right below him in the stat are Norris Trophy contenders or anything, right?

Oh, well they actually are. The top four leaders in xGF% Rel are Andrae, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, and Adam Fox. Again, this isn’t just a phony statistic that makes the rookie defender look better than he really is. We see it with the eye test (which will be visited later).

Let’s put his numbers in a table to further explain his impact on the Flyers. It’s pretty remarkable for a player his age and with his lack of NHL experience:

Stat; 5-on-5Flyers with Andrae (NHL Rank)Flyers without Andrae (NHL Rank)
Goal Share (GF%)58.33% (2nd)42.50% (31st)
Expected Goal Share (xGF%)60.25% (1st)46.54% (28th)
Scoring Chance Share (SCF%)57.19% (1st)46.34% (27th)
High-Danger Chance Share (HDCF%)58.33% (1st)47.42% (24th)
Shot Share (SF%)58.70% (1st)48.80% (22nd)
Shot Attempt Share (CF%)54.70% (2nd)45.23% (30th)

Andrae has over 300 minutes of ice time at 5-on-5 alone, so that’s plenty of sample size. If we look at goal share (GF%), which is just plus/minus as a percentage, the Flyers are the second-best team in the NHL with Andrae on the ice. When he’s on the bench, they are the second worst. Furthermore, no other defender on the team has scored more goals than they’ve allowed.

When a team’s win-loss record is posted with and without a certain player in the lineup, that’s generally misleading. But that’s not quite the case with Andrae, considering the statistics provided. The Orange and Black are 11-6-3 when he plays (.625 points percentage; tied for 11th in the NHL) and a depressing 3-9-1 when he doesn’t (.269 points percentage; last in the NHL).

Maybe the Flyers will get it together somewhat now that Andrae is out of the picture. The numbers don’t say they will, but it’s hard to believe they’ll be the worst team in the league. That said, they might not be too far off. The team was last place in the Eastern Conference before his 2024-25 debut yet in a playoff spot as recent as Dec. 13.

Why Andrae Is So Important

We can look at all the numbers in the world to back up the claim Andrae is a tried-and-true NHL player. But why is that the case? Why is he such an analytical darling?

Emil Andrae Philadelphia Flyers
Emil Andrae, Philadelphia Flyers (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

For starters, Andrae was objectively the team’s best defender at turning defense into offense. In Philadelphia, he routinely showed an ability to exit the defensive zone and start an offensive attack the other way. His passing, an impressive trait of his, was vital in making this happen. He always seemed to be one step ahead, showing effectiveness and efficiency with the puck in all three zones. Confident and never losing composure, he made the right plays frequently.

Unlike Sanheim, who has 20, Andrae himself wasn’t putting points on the board with just five in 20 games. But those aren’t necessary to be an impactful two-way defender. The Flyers possessed the puck more when he was out there and did a lot more with it, as well. His presence proved essential in the progression of those around him, particularly defensive partner Rasmus Ristolainen who was having his best NHL season. That could be in jeopardy now.

It’s not that the Flyers are a mistake-heavy team, but Andrae has a level of poise that’s pretty impressive for someone his age. He may be 5-foot-9 and 189 pounds, but size doesn’t matter to him—he goes out there and makes his team better.

The Flyers lost 7-3 to the Los Angeles Kings the night prior to this move, so perhaps that ugly performance didn’t help. Still, Andrae was on the ice for one total goal against and had one in his favor. He was fourth on the team with a 73.20 xGF% at 5-on-5, too. He’s not perfect, but you have to tip your cap to the young Swede—the kid loves to out-shoot, out-chance, and really just out-everything his foes.

Maybe the Flyers choose to bring Andrae back to their lineup promptly. But he should have been one of the last guys on the list of expendables. His value to the team is far greater than anyone could have imagined. Hopefully, the AHL doesn’t stifle his growth.

Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

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