Welcome to a Philadelphia Flyers stats report! In this edition, we’ll look at Jamie Drysdale’s rise, the Flyers’ “right personnel” decisions that may actually be far from it, and Matvei Michkov’s bad puck luck.
Stat One: Drysdale’s Rise
Jamie Drysdale is the gift that keeps on giving for the Flyers. His post-injury resurgence has been remarkable, and something that cannot be understated. Just take a look at his first 39 games as a member of the team at 5-on-5 (among defensemen with at least 500 minutes of ice time; between Jan. 10, 2024, and Dec. 7, 2024):
| Stat | Total | Percentile |
| Expected Goals For Per 60 | 2.07 | 7th |
| Expected Goal Share | 42.64% | 5th |
| Goals For Per 60 | 0.98 | 1st |
| Goal Share | 23.81% | 1st |
In the fifth and first percentiles for expected and actual goal share, it’s okay to tell it how it is. Drysdale was not an NHL-caliber player—very far from it, being outscored 32-10. Sure, not helping matters was his unlucky PDO (sum of save percentage and shooting percentage; he had the worst in the sample), but his results were a bit worrying even for a young, injury-stricken defender.
That makes his shift since Dec. 8 all the more impressive. He’s a completely different player (among defensemen with at least 200 minutes of ice time):
| Stat | Total | Percentile |
| Expected Goals For Per 60 | 3.30 | 97th |
| Expected Goal Share | 61.46% | 96th |
| Goals For Per 60 | 3.75 | 98th |
| Goal Share | 54.55% | 65th |
When an offensive defenseman is in the 97th and 98th percentiles for expected and actual goals per 60 minutes, it means something. Just to give you an idea, the top ten for expected goals contains, minus Drysdale: Thomas Harley, Evan Bouchard, Noah Hanifin, Adam Fox, John Carlson, Mattias Ekholm, K’Andre Miller, Alex Pietrangelo, and Lane Hutson. Quite simply, he’s been fantastic.
While I don’t have the numbers on it, what I’ve especially noticed is Drysdale’s boost in rush contributions. He’s the best defenseman at starting rushes on the team for my money, which leads to goals. From last night (Jan. 16):
The boys are buzzin' in the second frame. 🫡#PHIvsNYI | #LetsGoFlyers pic.twitter.com/U663sLxHgG
— Philadelphia Flyers (@NHLFlyers) January 17, 2025
With the data outlined above, I think a lot of Drysdale’s struggles were mental. While a valid excuse, injuries don’t make a near-99th percentile offensive generator one in the single digits. But you know what does? Not being there mentally; not trusting your instincts. With Drysdale at his peak confidence, it’s time for everyone to take notice.
Stat Two: Finding the “Right Personnel”
Bill Meltzer of NHL.com got an interesting quote from John Tortorella regarding a Jan. 14 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Flyers had a 2-1 lead late in that contest, but a timely Blue Jackets goal knotted up the score. Columbus came away with two points following a shootout win.
Tortorella said that he felt he had the “right personnel” on the ice when his squad conceded the game-tying tally: Scott Laughton (who hopped off the ice for Owen Tippett at the last second, negating a minus), Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny, Cam York, and Jamie Drysdale. Unfortunately for his side, a turnover all but directly led to a goal in the back of his net. The man who committed it hasn’t exactly had the best track record in these up-by-one-goal situations—that’s what I want to cover.
Some teams like to hunker down when they lead by a goal. It’s not that the Flyers go full-protection mode, but they aren’t going out of their way to bury the dagger, either. At 5-on-5, they have been outscored 22-12.
Taking a one-goal lead to victory has been a challenge for the Orange and Black, but not for rookie Matvei Michkov. On the flip side, it’s been a struggle for Laughton. Since Nov. 1, here are their results (among forwards with at least 50 minutes of ice time):
| Stat | Michkov’s Total (Percentile) | Laughton’s Total (Percentile) |
| Expected Goal Share | 66.93% (98th) | 34.20% (8th) |
| Goal Share | 60.00% (73rd) | 0.00% (1st) |
| Shot Attempt Share | 53.33% (86th) | 37.75% (10th) |
| Ice Time | 67:13 (28th) | 104:57 (58th) |
How’s that for irony? The rookie—who isn’t fluent in English, mind you—with a perceived weakness defensively plays some of his best hockey when preserving a slim lead. More often than not, the Flyers have added to it. In the 98th percentile for expected goal share and holding a positive goal differential, he should be out on the ice as much as possible. Well, the 28th percentile for ice time isn’t that. Philadelphia is actively avoiding putting one of its best up-by-one weapons over the boards.
Then, we get to Laughton. He has scored zero goals in these situations and allowed seven, which ties him for the worst plus/minus of any forward. Yet, somehow, he’s in the 58th percentile for ice time. Laughton’s neutral-zone turnover against the Blue Jackets highlights a problem in Philadelphia (and with Tortorella’s quote):
Z TIES IT WITH HIS 50TH POINT OF THE SEASON!!!!@FanaticsBook | #CBJ pic.twitter.com/LsLBk4Hemq
— Columbus Blue Jackets (@BlueJacketsNHL) January 15, 2025
With all due respect to his game, the Flyers are a worse hockey team when Laughton is on the ice in these situations. That’s unavoidable, of course—you can’t just bench him. But willingly icing a player who is regularly victimized by his opponents isn’t good for anyone. His role is more or less to survive, but that isn’t a winning formula for him.
Don’t take it from me. Take it from the scoreboard. The Flyers lost because they objectively had the wrong personnel. Will Michkov get more usage, or will it stay down?
Stat Three: How Puck Luck Is Underrating Michkov
Michkov, who was a point-per-game player on his 20th birthday back in December, now has 32 points in 44 games this season. As highlighted in the related piece below, that aligns with players like Leon Draisaitl and Matthew Tkachuk when they were his age, adjusting for the era. He’s been far from disappointing even though I personally felt he’d be closer to a 75-point pace per 82 games than the 60 he’s looking at now.
Related: Flyers’ Matvei Michkov Is Playing Like a Future Superstar Despite Skid
I would normally take the fault for that one, but the reality is that Michkov is a 60-point player despite some of the worst luck possible. He should be on pace for about 75 (had he not been a healthy scratch for two games).
At 5-on-5, Michkov’s on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%) is just 7.63. This means that he and his linemates are scoring on 7.63% of their shots—that’s the issue. Not helping matters is an individual points percentage (IPP) of 65.00, meaning he’s getting points on 65.00% of Flyers goals he’s on the ice for. We can safely call this unfortunate puck luck.
Especially for a player of Michkov’s caliber, these metrics should be a lot higher. For reference, let’s apply the numbers of teammate Bobby Brink. He’s looking at an oiSH% of 12.12 and an IPP of 75.00, neither of which are league-wide outliers. However, they’d boost Michkov substantially.
If Michkov had the 5-on-5 oiSH% and IPP referenced above, he’d be sitting at 43 points in 44 games. That’s the best-case scenario, of course—I hand-picked Brink for a reason. But even if we look apply the “puck-luck” metrics of fellow rookie forward Macklin Celebrini (who plays for a San Jose Sharks team that struggles with shooting percentage), Michkov would have 38 points in 44 games. That’d put him at 71 points per 82 games, just a hair shy of my projection in the summer.
Related: Making the Case for Each 2024-25 Calder Trophy Contender
With the Flyers past the midway point of their season, they have a few interesting stats that have built up. Drysdale’s rise, the team’s ineffective usage patterns when they hold a one-goal lead, and Michkov’s poor luck underrating his rookie campaign are all worth noting.
Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
