Just days before the New York Islanders’ 2024-25 regular season begins, Noah Dobson is still without a long-term deal. He will be a restricted free agent (RFA) after the season. Ideally, Islanders would have signed their star defenseman to an extension, one with eight seasons attached to it in the $7 million average annual value (AAV) range, at some point this offseason to get it out of the way. They didn’t and general manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello is playing with fire as he runs the risk of not re-signing Dobson in the 2025 offseason; if he does, it will come at a higher AAV.
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Sure, the Islanders have leverage, as they can match any offer. However, the sour negotiations between RFA Jeremy Swayman and the Boston Bruins were a grim reminder of how things can go south. Not signing Dobson now could hurt the Islanders in the future, especially if negotiations stall.
At the same time, this is a bet by Lamoriello and a bet by Dobson, one that can work out for both the GM and the player. While Dobson could struggle and regress this season, thus lowering his price tag, all signs point to the young skater who is entering his prime to have a big season; it’s something Lamoriello is hoping for all well. His great play could also be the reason the Islanders are one of the best teams in the NHL. A contract year tends to bring out the best in some players and the Islanders’ top defenseman looks to be one of them for whom it does.
Dobson Puts Together a Career-Best Season
Dobson is a great passer who moves the puck up the ice well and has a strong defensive game. If he can continue to do those things at a high level and become a scorer, he will become invaluable to the team. Dobson has a great shot, and he must use it more often to take the Islanders to the next level; scoring 20 goals and 60 or more assists.
However, a big season defensively could make the Islanders’ blue line one of the best in the league. He’s shown signs that he can be an elite defenseman and could end up in the Norris Trophy conversation this season. The Vancouver Canucks’ Quinn Hughes had a similar trajectory, and when he rounded out his game and became an elite scoring threat from the point, he won the Norris. Dobson will be in the same discussion if he continues to improve in a contract year
Lamoriello Leans on Dobson’s Big Play
In the 2023 offseason, Lamoriello took criticism after he signed Scott Mayfield and Pierre Engvall to seven-year contracts. Both have aged poorly – Mayfield’s game is declining and Engvall was placed on waivers this week. Lamoriello’s already on the hot seat and the next move or mistake from the long-time GM could be his last with the Islanders.
The Islanders have a few big names heading into contract years, including Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri, and Alexander Romanov. This team is pressed against the salary cap so they likely will likely only be able to afford two of those skaters and this season will determine which two they will re-sign. Lamoriello is playing the waiting game with all of them, but this strategy will pay off with Dobson, in particular. Sure, Nelson plays a key offensive role, but Dobson is the most impactful player, playing at a high level in all three zones and helping both the defense and the offense.
It’s common for GMs to bet on skaters to have their best seasons as they head into free agency. The Florida Panthers did it last season with a handful of key skaters — notably Sam Reinhart, who scored 57 goals — and the Colorado Avalanche relied on Nazem Kadri and Darcy Kuemper in 2022 to lead them to the Cup. Lamoriello typically tries to extend players before they enter free agency but this season, he’s following a different blueprint with the hopes it makes the Islanders one of the best teams in the league.
Islanders Can Sneak Up On Eastern Conference
The Metropolitan Division isn’t as good as it used to be. The Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers are expected to fight for the top spot, while the New Jersey Devils will be hot on their heels. There will be a lot of close games this season, and Dobson will be the difference-maker. With him, the Islanders could pile up wins and be in the same discussion.
Why the optimism? An elite season from Dobson will allow the offense to find more scoring chances off the rush. Similarly, his presence on the point will open up the offense and turn the power play into a strength. Additionally, his strong defensive play will help out the goaltenders while providing stability at the top. A Norris-caliber season from Dobson will help the Islanders take the league by surprise and look like a juggernaut.
Dobson Could Get Rewarded This Offseason
A big season from Dobson will force Lamoriello’s hand. His current contract is a three-year deal with a $4 million (AAV) and his next deal will be in the $7 million range; but if he’s in the Norris Trophy conversation, he’ll be paid like it – Cale Makar’s AAV is $9 million and Adam Fox’s AAV is $9.5 AAV.
The debate about whether he’s worth that money will become a hot topic if he has a breakout season. At the same time, the Islanders will want to keep a core part of their roster who, at 24 years old, is entering his prime. A bad season from Dobson will likely result in a deal with a lower AAV (in the $6 million range) with five or six seasons attached to it but a remarkable season could allow him to ask for an eight-year contract in the $9 million range.
Islanders Understand Contract Years
The Panthers bet on a handful of players heading into a contract year, hoping they would have the best seasons of their career. They had Sam Reinhart, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Brandon Montour heading to free agency at the end of the season. The bet was that they would all have great seasons. They did and it’s why they won the Cup. While Ekman-Larsson and Montour left in free agency, signing with the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Seattle Kraken, the decision to have them play out their contract years paid off.
The Islanders have four of their top skaters heading into the final seasons of their contracts with Dobson and Nelson highlighting the list while Palmieri and Romanov are also on expiring deals. All four skaters could have remarkable seasons to put this team near the top of the standings and possibly in the Stanley Cup conversation.
