Connor Hellebuyck is going to win the Vezina Trophy again and possibly even the Hart Trophy, but it doesn’t seem like his team can win their first-round series against the St. Louis Blues with him between the pipes.
It’s time for Eric Comrie to take to the crease and try and stabilize a series that’s spiralled out of control, partly due to Hellebuyck’s profound struggles.
Hellebuyck’s Back-to-Back Disastrous Starts in St. Louis
Hellebuyck, of course, started Games 3 and 4 in St. Louis with his team staked to a 2-0 series lead.
He finished neither.
In Game 3, he got yanked after giving up six goals on 25 shots and committing an atrocious puck-handling miscue that resulted in a goal just after his team got some life by scoring to cut the lead to 3-1.
He was unable to bounce back in Game 4, getting lit up for five on 18 shots — including two in the late second and one in the early third to turn a close game his team had controlled overall into a laugher — before once again giving way to Comrie.
Through four games of the now-tied series, he owns an ugly 4.24 goals against average (GAA), .817 save percentage (SV%,) and a negative 6.8 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
This isn’t about Hellebuyck not being as dominant as he was in the regular season. This is about him not even being close to average for an NHL goaltender. His negative 6.8 GSAx means he’s given up almost two goals more per game (1.7, to be exact) than he should have.
The team didn’t play well defensively in front of him in Games 3 and 4, to be sure. However, he looks lost in the crease and like he doesn’t trust himself. He looks unable to fight through screens, which the Blues have scored eight of their sixteen goals on.
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His teammates in front of him are playing in a way that indicates they don’t trust him either. They seem to have gotten away from their identity partly because they can’t trust him to make a stop.
Hellebuyck’s Long History of Poor Postseason Performances
The “here we go again” feeling hasn’t just crept in. It’s roared in like an EF5 tornado.
Hellebuyck entered the postseason looking to dispel the narrative that he folds in the playoffs. He was mediocre in Game 1 but found his game in time, and was good in Game 2. But the “narrative” now seems more like a simple and stone-cold reality. The incongruity between his regular-season play and playoff play is just confounding.
Last year, Hellebuyck was awful in the first round against the Colorado Avalanche, posting a 5.23 GAA, .864 SV%, and negative 6.9 GSAx. In 2023, he struggled in the first round against the Vegas Golden Knights, posting a 3.44 GAA, .886 SV%, and negative 2.9 GSAx.
In his last nine road playoff games, he is 1-8, has a 4.58 GAA, .861 SV%, and has been pulled three-straight times.
This isn’t a coincidence anymore. In the postseason, teams need their best players to be their best players. Hellebuyck doesn’t seem to have the mental strength to be his best when the lights are brightest.
At the other end, Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington has been strong since a shaky Game 1, now owning a 2.29 GAA and .907 SV%.
Comrie Gives Jets Best Chance to Win Game 5
Jets head coach Scott Arniel said after Game 4 that he still is “100 per cent confident in Connor Hellebuyck.” It’s hard to see why.
He still has time to change course and start Comrie in Game 5 Wednesday evening in Winnipeg. The backup had a good season in his own right, with a 2.39 GAA, .914 SV%, and a pair of shutouts. He’s stopped eight of nine shots in relief of Hellebuyck in the postseason, with his sole goal against coming on the power play.
Turning to the backup has worked elsewhere. Edmonton Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch went to Calvin Pickard for Games 3 and 4 of their series with the Los Angeles Kings after Stuart Skinner struggled and lost Games 1 and 2; Pickard’s won both his starts and now the series is even.
Even if the Jets fail again in Game 5 to follow their blueprint of success by playing shutdown defence, it’s hard to see Comrie doing much worse. If he does just as poorly, Arniel can go back to Hellebuyck for an elimination Game 6.
The playoffs aren’t about loyalty. This isn’t about Hellebuyck’s 2.00 GAA and .925 SV% in the regular season. It isn’t about what awards he’s going to win. It isn’t about the fact he makes eight times the money Comrie does. It isn’t about letting Hellebuyck “work through it.” There isn’t time.
It’s about avoiding a third-straight first-round exit and stopping a Presidents’ Trophy-winning season from going down the drain.