For many weeks, St. Louis Blues fans have had little to do besides overanalyze young players and think about the future. The team’s incredible selloff at the trade deadline cemented their “rebuilding status,” at least for the short term, and even with a series of wins in recent weeks, the team is officially eliminated from playoff contention. So fans are left to watch young players like Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, and Jakub Vrána and hope that their play tells a tale of a brighter tomorrow.
Unfortunately, due to a recent dust-up with head coach Craig Berube, the discussion around Kyrou in particular, has been less than glowing. The coach and fans alike perceived that Kyrou lacked effort on a play against the Nashville Predators, and Kyrou and Berube shared words as the team exited the ice. That has led many fans to argue about Kyrou’s future with the team, and whether he will ever develop into the 200-foot player, they believe he needs to be to succeed in St. Louis.
While a lack of effort will never be tolerated by Blues fans, much less by Berube, the ire directed toward Kyrou is a little misleading. A closer inspection of his stats suggests that while there are holes in his game defensively, he is not quite the liability that many fans believe he is. Moreover, he should be the least of fans’ concerns in evaluating the Blues’ defensive woes.
Kyrou’s Metrics
When fans criticize Kyrou, they are often quick to point out his plus/minus rating, which is abysmal. His minus-35 tally is last on the team and fourth-worst in the league behind only Seth Jones, Andrew Peeke, and Drake Batherson. It’s certainly a troublesome statistic, but plus/minus is also widely perceived as an outdated measurement of player value. Because it is highly situational and doesn’t paint a complete picture, most analysts turn to more advanced metrics to judge a player defensively.
A closer look at Kyrou’s defensive metrics shows a player who is, yes, a lackluster player in his own zone but far from the disaster that many believe him to be. His expected defensive goals above replacement (xDEF) sit at minus-2.7, a poor number but only eighth worst on the team. He’s ahead of Brayden Schenn (minus-2.9), who fans often mistake as the true “200-foot player” they want Kyrou to be. And more troublingly, he’s well ahead of two of the team’s top defenders, Justin Faulk (minus-6.3) and Torey Krug (minus-5.2).
Looking at the complete picture, expected goals above replacement (xGAR), one of the most critical metrics for evaluating a player’s overall impact on his team, Kyrou ranks quite high (11.2), second on the Blues only behind Pavel Buchnevich. Among 24-year-olds with 500-plus minutes played, Kyrou’s xGAR ranks 19th. He’s a terrific young player that the Blues are right to want to build around, which they signaled by signing him and Thomas to matching contract extensions last summer. His defense should develop with age. But even if it doesn’t, he is still a plus player and a huge asset for any franchise.
The Defense is the Problem
Moreover, if one is looking for who to blame for the Blues’ defensive woes, he or she needs to look no further than the team’s defense. We’ve already mentioned Krug’s and Faulk’s abysmal xDEF numbers. Their xGAR numbers aren’t much better, at minus-0.5 and minus-2.9, respectively. Colton Parayko is the Blues’ best defensive player, with an xDEF of 6.7 that leads the team. But he is such a black hole offensively (minus-4.6 xOFF) that his xGAR balances out to a fairly mediocre 2.4. The fact that the three highest-paid defenders on the Blues’ roster have a collective minus-1 xGAR displays clearly that the team’s defense simply isn’t good enough.
Related: Blues’ Defensive Nightmare is Mess of Their Own Making
That’s an unpleasant truth for many Blues fans because it seems like such a difficult one to solve. Unfortunately, the team’s rebuild will not be a quick fix. But a realistic evaluation of the team shows that the defensive problems are a systemic issue that start, at the risk of stating the obvious, with the defense. It is overly simplistic to scapegoat any one (or even several) players, but Kyrou is clearly not at the heart of the issue either way.
Kyrou’s Future is Bright
It is never acceptable for a player to not give 100% on a play. And it can be frustrating to watch a young player with all the skill in the world seemingly “coast” to the end of a rough season. Those lessons are ones that Kyrou has had to learn the hard way. But it is foolish to extrapolate from one or two bad on-ice episodes or an abysmal plus/minus rating and assume that the Blues were mistaken to extend the young forward. He has a very bright future, and will be a central part of the team’s success for years to come.
