The Tampa Bay Lightning’s top-six forward core is shaping to be one of the best heading into the 2024-25 season. Despite losing Steven Stamkos, the Lightning found a better option in Jake Guentzel on the wing. With the addition of Guentzel, the Lightning has formed one of the best lines in hockey. This trio also features two superstars, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov.
Related: Revisiting the Lightning’s Blockbuster Trade for Blake Coleman
Moving past the top line, many will argue that the Lightning’s forward depth is extremely weak. However, one name that gets overlooked is 25-year-old Brandon Hagel. When general manager Julien BriseBois brought the young winger to Tampa Bay, analysts deemed the Chicago Blackhawks winners of the deal. Two seasons later, the Lightning ended up with the best asset of the trade. Hagel had the best season of his career in 2023-24 and signed a bargain of an extension with the Lightning for the next eight years at an annual average of $6.5 million. With all the offensive studs on the first line, can Hagel drive the second line himself? Let’s turn to the numbers to find out.
Hagel’s Impressive Offensive Production
An all-star winger in the National Hockey League has many attributes. Some include dominant offensive production in all situations, 5-on-5 play driving, or strong play in all three zones. Luckily for the Lightning, Hagel has all these features in his game.
First, he ranked tied-30th for points in all situations amongst forwards last season. If we switch the situation to 5-on-5, where scoring is more difficult, Hagel moves even higher up the ranks. His 48 5-on-5 points finished tied for 13th amongst all NHL forwards last season. The best part about his 5-on-5 production is his primary-to-secondary assists ratio. Commonly labeled as a secondary scoring piece on the team, one would expect most of Hagel’s points to consist of primary assists, especially spending time with Point and Kucherov. However, Hagel notched 23 primary assists at 5-on-5 (tied-7th) compared to nine secondary assists, proving he was more vital to the Tampa Bay offense than the public eye believed.
Debunking the “Carried by Kucherov” Theory
While players can post insane point totals, their on-ice possession metrics can hinder them from being elite-caliber players. How did Hagel drive play last season? Using Natural Stat Trick’s on-ice player statistics page, we can look at numerous play-driving statistics to answer this question. With all Lightning players who played over 250 minutes at 5-on-5, Hagel led the team in expected goals-for percentage at 53.87% (xGF%). Furthermore, he ranked in the top two in scoring chances for percentage (SCF%) and high danger Corsi for percentage (HDCF%).
Fans will quickly point out that Hagel shared over 400 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time with the league’s leading scorer last season, inflating his on-ice possession metrics. However, NaturalStatTrick’s line tool adds a new layer of context to debunk the theory of Kucherov carrying Hagel. While Kucherov and Hagel made each other better on the ice together, both players performed relatively the same without one another. In Kucherov’s minutes, the Lightning played at a high-flying offensive pace. On the other hand, Hagel’s minutes were low-event hockey against the opponent’s top units around the league. Kucherov and Hagel finished around the 50% mark in expected goals for percentage, scoring chances for percentage, and high-danger Corsi for percentage without each other at 5-on-5. In short, Hagel does not need superstar talent around him to impact the game. One may deem his ability to change the game in different ways more impressive than a pure offensive scorer.
Hagel Deserved Selke Recognition For His Defensive Efforts
To round out his dominant offensive production and play driving, Hagel is a monster on the defensive side of the puck. He still managed to post a 75-point season with his upper-echelon defensive play. If Hagel sacrificed some of his defensive play for offense, he could be in the point-per-game range. When Hagel is on the ice, the Lightning allow expected goals at a rate eight percent better than the league average this season, according to Hockey Viz. Moreover, he is posting these defensive results against the opponent’s best offensive weapons. His centerman Anthony Cirelli also fills this shutdown second-line mold like a glove. Hagel and Cirelli also form a penalty kill unit and defend together short-handed for head coach Jon Cooper. Hagel posted defensive results good enough for the Selke conversation last season, and his defensive game continues to go completely under the radar.
Swiss Army Knife Forward Has Zero Flaws
After a contextualized analysis, we can conclude that the Lightning winger has no flaws in his game. Hagel is a Swiss army knife player who can do it all. He can go out there and score a goal, make a pass, block a shot, kill a penalty, and even drop the gloves. His energetic play style brings tenacity to this transition of the Lightning roster in recent years. After following up his 30-goal, 64-point campaign two seasons ago with 75 points and two-way dominance last season, Hagel belongs in the conversation as one of the top left wingers in the NHL. While Tampa Bay has a weak bottom-six heading into next season, count on Hagel to drive a solid second line for the Lightning and continue to improve.
