It’s been nearly two years since the Tampa Bay Lightning acquired Brandon Hagel in a blockbuster trade with the Chicago Blackhawks.
The price for Hagel, along with two fourth-round picks? Forwards Taylor Raddysh and Boris Katchouk plus two first-round picks (2023, 2024). How has the trade worked out for the Lightning so far? It’s safe to say it’s worked out pretty well.
Brandon Hagel’s Time with the Lightning so Far
Hagel’s time with the Lightning didn’t have the exciting start many were hoping it would have. He didn’t even want to leave Chicago at first, and he felt the pressure of trying to live up to the trade.
“It was probably one of the biggest costs of the deadline,” Hagel said. “You think you want to perform like that. I was never a first-rounder. I don’t want to say they put me in a spot, but I was never in a place where I had expectations from people on the outside, like, ‘What is he going to do?’ Is he going to continue to score? Blah blah. I’ve always started on the fourth line and worked my way up.
“That type of story” (from ‘Brandon Hagel ‘didn’t want to go’ in the Blackhawks’ fire sale — until he heard the destination,’ The Athletic, Feb. 17, 2023).
In 55 games with the Blackhawks during the 2021-22 season, the then-23-year-old Hagel was having a breakout season. He had 21 goals and a total of 37 points. This is in comparison to the nine goals and 24 points he had in 52 games the year prior. On pace for over 30 goals, he was poised to make a significant impact on a team seeking their third straight Stanley Cup.
He also brought value with his physicality and defense. Hagel had 42 hits and 25 blocked shots at the time of his arrival in Tampa Bay. This aspect of his game arrived immediately. He had 21 hits and seven blocked shots in 22 regular season games, and 34 hits and 17 blocked shots in 23 playoff games.
However, his scoring took some time to arrive in Tampa Bay. He had just four goals and seven points in those 22 regular season games. In the playoffs, he had just six points. Given the price tag, the trade did not look great off the bat – or, I guess, the hockey stick.
Fortunately for the Lightning, Hagel took the step forward they were looking for in his first full season with the club. He scored 30 goals for the first time in his career and tallied 64 points. This season, he’s taken another step further. While he is on pace for 30 goals again, he’s reached a new career high in assists. Last season, he tallied 34 in 81 games, and this season he has 37 assists through 61 games. On top of that, his point streak reached 14 games in the 6-2 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Feb. 27.
At his current pace, based on the entire season, Hagel will finish with 79 points. However, if he keeps up the pace that he’s established during his point streak (1.53 points per game) for the rest of the season, he could reach 90 points. He doesn’t have to keep the streak going the rest of the way, that’s rather unrealistic. But a scoring pace above a point per game is certainly realistic.
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The Lightning see him as an important component of their long-term success. After all, they signed the now 25-year-old forward to an eight-year deal with an average annual value (AAV) of $6.5 million. As the salary cap goes up, the deal has the potential of becoming a steal if he continues to develop further.
It’s no doubt the price for Hagel was steep. He was a sixth-round pick with less than one full season of solid play. There is also the topic, nowadays, of the lack of depth due to a lack of draft picks. It was a risky move, but it’s panned out nicely. They’ve had themselves a first-round-caliber player who will be part of the core now and in the future.
How Does Hagel Compare to Other Pieces From the Trade?
It would be a bonus should anything come out of what else the Lightning received in the trade.
The 2022 fourth-round pick was used in a package to move up to the third round of that year’s draft and acquire forward Lucas Edmonds. So far, he has reached the American Hockey League (AHL) and has eight points in 32 games. His success in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) has yet to translate to the pros. However, at age 23, he still had a shot. Guys like Yanni Gourde and Darren Raddysh didn’t make their debuts until their mid-20s.
Meanwhile, the fourth-round pick remains to be determined. The Lightning could pick a player or use it in a trade. Time will tell.
For the Blackhawks, this trade was absolutely part of a tank move. They later shipped off Alex DeBrincat as well to make the push for Connor Bedard. Raddysh has a shot to stick around once the Blackhawks switch gears to contend. Even though he’s taken a step back this season, 11 points in 54 games, he scored 20 goals last season. He does have 63 hits and 24 blocked shots, which provides value beyond scoring for Chicago.
Katchouk is more of a wait-and-see type of player. He’s already been sent down to their AHL affiliate in Rockford, Illinois once this season, but returned after five points in six games. Being at that level of in between the NHL and AHL is not fun. There’s a potential future of simply being shipped back and forth depending on when his duties are needed. At the very least, he has a shot to be a consistent member of the bottom six.
Then there are the first-round picks. The 2023 first-rounder became 19th-overall pick Oliver Moore, a forward out of Minnesota. He chose to head to the NCAA and play for the Minnesota Golden Gophers. So far, he has a respectable 29 points in 32 games. The 2024 first-rounder is, for obvious reasons, to be determined. According to Tankathon, if the season ended today, the Blackhawks would get a top-20 pick from the Lightning to go with what would be a guaranteed top-three pick. If Moore becomes something and the upcoming pick hits, they’ll trade Hagel every time. Having Bedard alone would likely ensure that they would.
For the most part, it’s looking like this deal has the ceiling of being a strong win-win trade for both teams. But whether or not it is depends on how it works out for Chicago. For the Lightning, it’s already a win on their end.
