The first-seeded Dallas Stars are in a massive hole against the eighth-seed Vegas Golden Knights in the first round of the playoffs. After losing both of their contests at home, they are on sweep watch as they head to Vegas for Games 3 and 4. It has been a disaster in Dallas.
The Stars are a good team, so not all hope is lost. How can they dig deep and keep their season alive?
Stars Veterans Need to Step Up
So far, few players have stepped up for the Stars, especially their veterans who haven’t come to play whatsoever. A two-game sample size is small, but the only players with at least a point are Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn, Logan Stankoven, Wyatt Johnston, and Mason Marchment. The other 12 haven’t done much.
Related: 3 Stars’ Keys to Victory vs. Golden Knights in the First Round
Veterans like Joe Pavelski, Tyler Seguin, Matt Duchene, and Roope Hintz need to be at their best for the Stars to have a chance. They have had decent looks, and both contests have been decided by a goal, excluding the empty-net insurance marker the Golden Knights scored in Game 2. If any of these players had scored, things might look different.
If Dallas’ top-six forwards are kept off the scoreboard, that’s how the series will end. Robertson has been good, with two goals, and the third line of Benn, Johnston, and Stankoven picked up right where they left off in the regular season with an expected goals percentage (xGF%) of 70, but they can’t do it alone. Three of the scoreless veterans had at least 65 points in the regular season, while Seguin had 52 in 68 contests. Games 3 and 4 will be huge for them.
Stars Must Even Out the Goaltending Battle
Like their Western Conference Final exit thanks to the Golden Knights last season, the Stars are again being outplayed in net. Of course, two games aren’t the fairest sample size for Dallas netminder Jake Oettinger, but his struggles in the postseason are an ongoing concern.
In the 2023 Playoffs, he had a poor .895 save percentage (SV%) and a 3.06 goals-against average (GAA). Against the Golden Knights, he had a .877 SV% and a 3.84 GAA in the six-game series. This time, he has a .850 SV% and a 3.10 GAA.
Oettinger isn’t the sole reason the Stars are struggling in this series, but he is not helping matters. Vegas’ Logan Thompson has a .920 SV% and a 2.00 GAA. Last season, starter Adin Hill had a .939 SV% and a 1.99 GAA.
No matter how much the Stars outplay the Golden Knights, they’ll never win if they can’t get that timely save. If Thompson continues on this hot streak, it will be on Oettinger to take his game to the next level. To put it bluntly, having sub .880 goaltending in back-to-back series is inexcusable.
Stars Must Press the Full 60 Minutes
What makes Vegas so difficult to beat is how well they can shut things down defensively late in games. The Stars had a 1-0 lead in the first period of Game 2, but that turned into a tie just over a minute later. From the second period on, they had just 10 shots on goal. The Golden Knights played their classic shutdown game, and it worked to perfection. One more goal was all they needed to cruise to victory.
The Stars are a great offensive team, so it’s not like they didn’t have their chances. They missed on a few passes that would have led to high-danger shots. Their intensity was high at times but not others and that just can’t happen. Vegas wins through defense — the Stars need every goal they can get.
Dallas can’t afford to get sloppy on defense just to score goals, but they need to take a few more risks. They don’t have a lot to lose at this point. They cannot afford to let up, even if they have a lead.
Stars Must Win Through Special Teams
If all else fails, generating offense through the power play could be the Stars’ saving grace. So far, they have done a good job on that front. They have one power-play goal on three attempts, good for 33.3 percent. The only issue is that the Golden Knights have outdone them, scoring twice on the man advantage in the same number of attempts for a 66.7 percent scoring rate.
As has been established, just one goal taken off the board for the Golden Knights might make this series look different. Vegas only has two power-play goals, and it has been the difference for them.
Generating at 5-on-5 isn’t easy against the Golden Knights, but doing so when they’re down a player is a lot simpler. A bid at 5-on-4 puts pressure on their defense. Getting these opportunities is one thing, but finishing on them is another. If the Stars can do both and play well on the penalty kill, it could swing the series back in their favor.
The Stars take on the Golden Knights in Game 3 on Saturday, April 27, at T-Mobile Arena. A win in that match alone likely won’t get them back in the series — they’ll need to win Game 4 on the road as well to keep their hopes alive.
