Montreal Canadiens forward Brendan Gallagher impressively turned back the clock to end 2023-24 with a strong finish to the season. Unfortunately you can only fight time for so long.
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On the second line with centre Alex Newhook and Joel Armia, Gallagher scored five goals and five assists in his last eight games. At his peak he was scoring at 30-goal and 60-point paces. As a result, it’s clear that production is unsustainable, as much as the Canadiens would like to believe he’s rediscovered his scoring touch at 32, when, over the last four seasons, he has just 45 goals and 92 points in 205 games (0.45 points per game).
Remember, he started 2023-24 on the right foot too, with four goals three assists in his first 11 games (a 52-point pace, to which Canadiens fans should be more accustomed from him). However, he obviously only ended with 16 goals and 15 assists, which includes his strong sprint to the finish.
Nevertheless, emphasis should be placed on the 205-games stat above (out of a possible 300). The wear and tear on his body has taken its toll, to the point the 31 points he scored overall this season should be seen as a respectable total, all things considered, namely how it’s the most he’s scored in the aforementioned four seasons.
Gallagher’s Saving Grace
In that sense, there is reason to be optimistic with regard to Gallagher’s contract, which, entering the season, was logically one of the worst on the team. That assessment goes beyond the $6.5 million cap hit, which to a degree was well-earned as a form of compensation for the years Gallagher was grossly underpaid ($22.5 million over the previous six seasons, the most productive of his career).
It has more to do with the new six-year term whose start coincided with the 2021-22 season, meaning an additional three remain. Ex-general manager Marc Bergevin also found it necessary to reward Gallagher with a modified no-movement clause and a no-movement clause, despite his anticipated decline. So, the Canadiens are stuck with Gallagher, especially with current-GM Kent Hughes having expressed no buy-outs are coming this offseason.
The good news is, Gallagher has still displayed an ability to drive play, based on analysis from Montreal Hockey Now. Based on that analysis, on the last day of the regular season, Gallagher was first in expected goals, scoring chances, shot attempts off the rush and rebounds created. He was also third in five-on-five goals per 60 minutes, behind linemates Armia and Newhook. So, the implication is clear: If the Canadiens can keep that specific band together next season, they should be able to replicate their performances.
Armia has admirably put himself back into consideration to play out the remaining year of his contract with the Canadiens (after getting cut to start the season), getting named the team’s Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy candidate for his hard work. However, he’s not a top-six forward when everyone is healthy. At least he shouldn’t be. Neither is Gallagher.
On the other hand, Newhook was tapped for just that type of assignment when the Canadiens acquired him, putting him on Kirby Dach’s wing to start the season. It’s safe to say, after posting career highs in goals (15) and points (34) in just 55 games, he’s reinforced the notion Hughes made the right move buying low on him.
Where Gallagher Fits in the Canadiens Lineup
So, the Canadiens face an intriguing conundrum. Do they continue to play Newhook down the middle, thinning out their depth on the wing, specifically Dach’s (assuming he’s healthy after missing all but two games this season)? Maybe. Remember, though: Gallagher was only played where he was after Joshua Roy got hurt, the latter and Armia having displayed chemistry both with the Habs and in the American Hockey League early in the season.
On top of all that, barring an offseason trade, Christian Dvorak will also be given reps down the middle. Nick Suzuki and Jake Evans will realistically round out the centre position, pushing Newhook back to Dach’s wing in principle. Gallagher could find himself in contention for the spot on the other side, along with Josh Anderson.
It’s further worth noting that, aside from being exempt from waivers, Roy has done little to justify getting demoted anew. Armia’s initial demotion showed Hughes favors a meritocracy and, with the Canadiens conceivably having eyes on a playoff spot in 2024-25, that must hold true moving forward, with respect to Anderson. Holding onto the past is what got the Habs into this mess with Gallagher’s contract in the first place. So, it will be interesting to see how the Habs look to fill that spot, balancing their cap hits, Gallagher’s being higher, with him also having shown more offense down the stretch and in general to boot.
Ideally though, it’s more of a neither-nor situation, where Hughes acquires/promotes someone new to play there. It could just as easily be Roy, as they drop Gallagher down to continue playing with Armia on a new line. Wherever Gallagher plays though, expectations should stay low.
It’s encouraging Gallagher ended the season like he did. Thankfully, he has something left in the tank. However, Gallagher as a top-six forward, where he’ll only be put in a position to take more punishment, is something the Canadiens should keep in their back pocket… or under glass to break in event of an emergency. If injuries arise anew and the Habs find themselves on the verge of missing the playoffs again, maybe explore going down that road. However, going there straight off the bat would realistically only serve to indirectly add his name to the injured reserve list. It’s especially nonsensical, when far better options exist.
Gallagher just played 77 games this season, the most he has in literally five seasons, primarily in a bottom-six capacity. That’s probably no coincidence. To his credit, he showed he can contribute there, just without consistently hitting the scoresheet. That’s just something with which the Canadiens and their fans will have to grow comfortable, because, as has been made abundantly clear, he’s not going anywhere for the time being.
