Sam Bennett will be a highly sought-after player if he chooses to test the open market as an unrestricted free agent in July. He plays with an edge, performed well for Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off, and has been productive for the Florida Panthers in the team’s lengthy playoff runs. The soon-to-be 29-year-old centre has been a great fit in South Florida, and it stands to reason that he may want to stay exactly where he is for the foreseeable future. However, his value will never be higher than it is right now, and he could take advantage of that in free agency.
At the same time, the Toronto Maple Leafs could be a great fit for Bennett. The Ontario native would add a winning pedigree, some nastiness, and be someone who can raise their game when it matters the most. Still, the numbers being tossed around for his projected salary are outrageous. Jay Onrait of TSN posed the question of Bennett potentially getting a contract that carries an average annual value (AAV) of $10 million, and NHL Tonight host E.J. Hradek suggested there would be at least one team willing to hit that number. It should be noted that these aren’t actual salary demands being reported. It’s unclear what Bennett is aiming for on his next deal, and it’s anyone’s guess if the Maple Leafs will be willing to commit that kind of money to bring him into the fold. Still, it’s reasonable to believe it will be competitive to land him should he decide to test the free agent waters, and a club could overextend to sign him.
Maple Leafs Should Avoid a Bidding War
The demand will probably be high for Bennett, but the Maple Leafs should set a limit in negotiations. Bennett has carried a cap hit of $4.425 million for the last four seasons. He will likely be aiming for a pay raise, but $10 million is too steep, and even $9 million or $8 million per campaign is pushing it into uncomfortable territory.
If general manager (GM) Brad Treliving can’t leverage his relationship with Bennett from their time together with the Calgary Flames into a reasonable agreement, the Maple Leafs should look elsewhere. Committing too much term and salary for a complementary piece of the puzzle has led plenty of GMs astray in free agency, and overreaching for Bennett could be a costly act of desperation.
Cost Comparisons Don’t Add Up
If he stays with the Panthers, he won’t be making $8-10 million per season. Of course, other teams would need to pay a premium to lure him away from a cushy situation with a winning team in a no-income-tax state, but that doesn’t mean he should make more than Nikita Kucherov or as much as Aleksander Barkov, Sergei Bobrovsky, or Jack Eichel. Some centres making exactly or just over $8 million per season are top-line players like Bo Horvat, Mark Scheifele, Mika Zibanejad, Roope Hintz, Tim Stutzle, Robert Thomas, J.T. Miller, Jack Hughes, and Steven Stamkos.
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The salary cap is going up, and free agency changes the contractual landscape, but it remains challenging at best to justify elevating Bennett to that portion of the upper echelon. He won’t come close to living up to those expectations. He hasn’t reached the 30-goal plateau in any of his previous 11 NHL seasons, and he had a career-high 51 points (25 goals, 26 assists) across 76 appearances in 2024-25.
Don’t Pay Extra for Playoff Performance
The playoff meltdowns of the Maple Leafs will likely influence the moves made in the offseason. Bennett’s experience and tenacity would make him a welcome addition, but that doesn’t mean he should be paid like a go-to forward. His production in the postseason has been solid, but he didn’t pile up points against the Maple Leafs and failed to reach the scoresheet in Games 6 and 7. However, he was a physical presence throughout the series while topping the league with 42 hits in Round 2.
His physicality makes him an attractive option, but Max Pacioretty had 38 hits and more points than Bennett in the series. Pacioretty also had a cap hit of $873,770. Since the 2023 Playoffs, Bennett ranks 10th in the NHL with 43 points (21 goals, 22 assists) in 55 games and fourth on the Panthers behind Matthew Tkachuk, Barkov, and Carter Verhaeghe. Still, that does not give grounds for Bennett to earn top dollar in free agency. For those wondering, Mitch Marner (0.97) has a better point-per-game pace in those postseasons, as does William Nylander (1.00) and Auston Matthews (0.90). Bennett’s success on a winning playoff team shouldn’t double or triple his AAV, just like Marner’s postseason losses won’t decrease his price tag in July.
Style May Not Work in Toronto
Bennett is tailor-made for the Panthers’ pesky, physical style, but it may not translate as well in another market. Much to the chagrin of other fan bases, the Maple Leafs receive an unbelievable amount of media attention. However, it comes with greater scrutiny and more sensationalism. A prime example of this was Max Domi’s hit from behind on Barkov in Game 4 on May 11. It wasn’t a good play, and it resulted in a fine for boarding, but it attracted more attention than a long list of far more egregious hits in the series. Bennett regularly plays on the line and often goes over it. Would he face more disciplinary actions if he played in Toronto? It’s hard to know for sure, but the spotlight would be much hotter, and it can play a factor in decisions.
Something that might work in his favour is his sneakiness and calculated approach to questionable plays. In the past, there has been a lengthy list of suspensions for the Maple Leafs for heat-of-the-moment or retaliatory-type infractions, but Bennet is usually the initiator. Still, it would be interesting to see if his antics resulted in more suspensions when public pressure intensifies. If the suspensions increase, the Maple Leafs could face a situation similar to the one that led to Nazem Kadri’s trade out of town.
Resources Can’t Be Wasted
Bennett has found success with the Panthers while being part of a deep forward group with excellent wingers on his flanks. The Maple Leafs could have solid depth down the middle if Bennett signs a reasonable contract and John Tavares returns on a team-friendly deal. However, the team would still need plenty of cap space remaining to address a thin corps of wingers while re-signing pending restricted free agent Matthew Knies. The Maple Leafs have a wealth of projected cap space, but should avoid taking on bad contracts at all costs. The best way to emulate the Panthers is by addressing forward depth and being wise with spending.
Having cap flexibility in the 2025-26 season could be a valuable weapon. For whatever reason, Toronto’s brass has been unwilling to use long-term injured reserve to their advantage the way other contenders have done in the past. It won’t recoup draft picks, but extra cap space could make future trades easier. It would also be beneficial to have funds available for what could be a stacked free-agent class in 2026. Landing players on shorter contracts this offseason would help achieve that goal.
Maple Leafs Must Learn From Mistakes
In what is shaping up to be an offseason of change for the Maple Leafs, the team has an opportunity to reinvent its approach. Handing out double-digit AAV salaries earned plenty of criticism for being far too restrictive in the past. However, here we are again, talking about one that could be a grievous mistake in the not-too-distant future. The signing of David Clarkson should serve as a cautionary tale for the Maple Leafs. He was brought in for toughness and leadership while being heralded as a can’t-miss addition for intangibles. However, he ultimately became known as a well-documented bust. While Bennett is arguably a better player, a contract that pays him $8-10 million per season would be a poor business choice. It won’t age well and could prevent management from building a more balanced lineup. That has to be the endgame; otherwise, the club is repeating the same mistakes.
