Maple Leafs’ Top Line Showing Signs of Breaking Out

If there’s a positive for the Toronto Maple Leafs roster, it’s the potential balance in offense as there could be some strong depth scoring coming this season. Other players have stepped up in that regard as Max Domi is tied for first in team points with five assists and Bobby McMann is currently tied for the lead in scoring with three goals. 

While it’s a positive sign to see others produce, the focus is going to remain on the top line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies. Even though the production from the top unit hasn’t looked as consistent to start the season, there’s one way of looking at it. They’re on the verge of breaking out. 

With a new face in the top-six in Knies, Matthews not scoring and registering a point until the fourth game and Marner leading the line with five points, there’s more underneath the surface than just the point totals as they look to continue to be a lethal and dominant line in the league. The points will definitely come, but they’ve been a dangerous line early on this season regardless of the production. 

Top Line Getting Results

Ideally, it would be nice for the top line to be pushing double-digits in points five games in. While Marner is leading the way, they just never got the bounces early on. Especially for Matthews who had 15 shots before the game he scored his first goal of the season. 

With the production being off to a slower than usual start, there should be no cause for concern as the top line has been generating and creating offense. Their underlying numbers are very impressive to start the season. Per Money Puck, with a minimum of 50 minutes played, the line of Knies- Matthews- Marner are third in the league in Corsi for (shot attempts) with 60.6% and second in expected goals for per 60 with 4.55. At five-on-five, Natural Stat Trick shows they have a scoring chances for percentage of 64% and a high danger chances for percentage of 65.38%. 

The offensive impact is definitely apparent, but they just haven’t got the production to go with it. Which shouldn’t be a problem. They were the dominant line in a 1-0 loss to the Montreal Canadiens on opening night and had great results against the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers. Even with other players producing, the top line still maintains their dominance with their elite level skillset.

While they haven’t got their bounces to start, they continue to do everything right on both sides of the puck and outmatch their opponents when they’re on the ice. It’s only a matter of time before they do get them and then, they’ll get on a roll consistently.

The Points will Come

With the top line posting strong results and leading in a number of key underlying numbers and offensive stats, the points should start to come over long stretches. If the last three games against the Penguins, Los Angeles Kings and Rangers is any indication, we’re already in the midst of it.

Over that span, the top line has four goals and seven assists for 11 points. With the desired results of dominating offensive zone time and producing, those numbers are likely to continue to increase as they have a great and balanced skillset on that line.

With two goals already, Matthews is on a mission for his third 60-goal season, or even better, his first 70-goal season as he just missed the mark last season. With his ability to finish from anywhere in the offensive zone, combined with his strong defensive play, he’s gaining more responsibilities on the penalty kill averaging 1:48 per game. We know he’s a dominant player at even strength and on the power play. Now that he’s on the penalty kill, it could help his goal production. Hitting the 50 or 60-goal mark while being an all-situations player, more hardware could be in his future along with the Rocket Richard Trophy. He earned a Selke nomination last season as his defensive impact stood out and could be another finalist as a result.

Knies looks to be that heavy, physical and skilled power forward where he does a lot of the leg work. His increased speed and strength have been on full display as he’s able to get by defenders swiftly and even bowl them over with his physicality and drive. He’s showing his great hands in tight spaces, winning battles and drawing penalties. All of which continue to benefit the line and the team. With his ability to establish a forecheck and the way he leads a play in transition, he could be in for a strong productive and breakout season. 

In the midst of a contract year, Marner’s doing what he can to earn another one with the Maple Leafs. There’s been a lot of criticism with him avoiding the tough areas, not being intense and not shooting enough. With a new voice behind the bench, Marner looks quicker and while not overly physical, he’s winning battles, forcing mistakes and retrieving pucks like he knows how. He’s a two-time, 30-goal scorer and three-time, 90-point producer. If he can continue to combine all those facets into his game, he can once again be a dual threat player like he has shown to be in the past. 

Despite the average production from the Maple Leafs’ top line, the numbers show that they continue to be a dominant factor. They’re making strong plays and getting those quality opportunities to find the back of the net. 

While the bounces weren’t there at the start of the season, things could be starting to turn around as they’ve been more productive as of late. It’s already difficult for teams to contain them and when the production continues, things will get even more difficult for the opposition. 

Statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Money Puck.