Marlies Making Unexpected Turn From Afterthought to Contender

We haven’t written much about the Toronto Marlies this season, and that’s partly on us. The sheer number of Toronto Maple Leafs games has pushed American Hockey League (AHL) coverage to the margins. Recently, though, we finally caught up—and what we saw forced us to rethink some early assumptions.

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Earlier in the season, we weren’t especially optimistic about this group. The structure looked sound, the back end looked reliable, but the offence? That felt thin. Predictable. Maybe even limiting. As it turns out, the Marlies have been challenging that read.

The Marlies had a strong weekend, earning three of four points despite a 4–3 overtime loss to the Springfield Thunderbirds on Friday before bouncing back with a 4–1 win over the Hartford Wolf Pack on Saturday.

That fits the broader trend lately, as the Marlies are 6–2–1–1 in their last 10 games, losing only twice in regulation while continuing to bank points. With a .585 points percentage through 41 games, they remain firmly in the playoff mix and are showing the kind of consistency that keeps teams afloat in a tight race.

What We Thought We Knew About the Marlies

Defensively, the Marlies always looked like they’d be able to hold their own. Henry Thrun, Matt Benning, and Dakota Mermis are all players who’ve had real NHL experience, which tends to stabilize an AHL blue line. Add William Villeneuve, who is still just 23 and already has over 200 AHL games. The blue line is a group that felt organized, mature, and hard to overwhelm.

Once healthy, Marshall Rifai fit right into that picture. At 27, he’s probably closer to his ceiling than his climb, but he’s a dependable AHL defender and still the kind of player who could catch a break if injuries open a door above him.

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In the crease, the picture was even clearer. Now that Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz are with the Maple Leafs, the Marlies would be left with Dennis Hildeby and Artur Akhtyamov. That’s not a fallback situation—that’s a strength. On paper, the foundation was solid.

Which is why the offence worried us.

Where the Doubts About the Marlies Lived

Coming into the season, we didn’t see much NHL upside up front. Jacob Quillan felt like the lone exception, and even then, more as a possible fourth-liner than a future fixture. Alex Nylander looked like what he’s long been: a gifted AHL scorer whose NHL window has likely closed.

The additions—Travis Boyd and Vinni Lettieri—made sense at the AHL level, but both are in their 30s. Both are useful players, but neither exactly signals long-term upside. Bo Groulx was the wildcard. At 25, a 2018 second-round pick, he looked intriguing—but not transformative.

For a while, the results backed that skepticism.

What Changed for the Marlies

By early December, the Marlies were near the bottom of the North Division, having lost more games than they’d won. Then something shifted. Over the next 14 games, they went 10–3–0–1, and suddenly, the standings told a very different story. More importantly, the scoring has started to spread out.

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Six players have at least 20 points. Groulx leads the way with 34 points, and Lettieri and Logan Shaw both have 31. Groulx has 19 goals, and Shaw has 14. Shaw has been effective. Quillan has produced at a rate that demands attention—27 points in 28 games. Boyd has fit in seamlessly. Even Nylander has chipped in enough to matter. Both Boyd and Nylander have potted 10 goals.

Villeneuve leads all defencemen in scoring, reinforcing the idea that this team’s offence isn’t coming from one place—it’s coming in layers.

A Note of Caution About the Marlies Record and Season

We are pleasantly surprised. But we’re also cautious. Last season offered a reminder of how misleading early success can be. The Marlies were near the top of the league at Christmas, then unravelled down the stretch, barely made the playoffs, and were quickly shown the door. The AHL has a way of humbling certainty.

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There’s still a lot of hockey left. But for now, this group looks deeper, more adaptable, and more resilient than we expected. We won’t suddenly pretend to be Marlies specialists. But we keep watching. When something shifts—up or down—we’ll try to let fans of the big club know.

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]