Mitch Marner’s Playoff Struggles Are a Myth

There is no denying that Mitch Marner’s production in the playoffs since he first joined the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2016 has not equaled his regular season numbers. In 575 regular season games, he has scored 194 goals and added 445 assists for 639 points. In the postseason, he has scored 11 goals and added 39 assists (for 50 points). If we break those numbers down to per-game statistics, we see the following:

Mitch MarnerGoals PGAssists PGPoints PG
Regular Season0.340.771.11
Playoffs0.190.680.88
Difference-0.15-0.09-0.23
% Difference-44%-12%-21%

Over his eight-year career, Marner’s point production is down 21% in the postseason. His regular-season average is 1.11 points per game, which falls to 0.88 points per game—those numbers seem to back up the opening statement.

Looking at the Numbers of the Maple Leafs’ Other Core Four Players

But what if we compare per-game numbers between all of the Maple Leafs’ Core Four players?

Auston MatthewsGoals PGAssists PGPoints PG
% Difference0.650.501.15
Playoffs0.420.450.87
Difference-0.23-0.05-0.28
% Difference-35%-10%-24%

William NylanderGoals PGAssists PGPoints PG
Regular Season0.360.520.88
Playoffs0.370.430.80
Difference+0.01-0.09-0.08
% Difference+3%-17%-9%
John TavaresGoals PGAssists PGPoints PG
Regular Season0.420.530.95
Playoffs0.320.320.63
Difference-0.10-0.21-0.32
% Difference-24%-40%-34%

Note: Tavares’ numbers are only his numbers with the Maple Leafs.

All the Core Four of the Maple Leafs Have Lower Postseason Numbers

If we look at overall postseason production, we see all four of the Maple Leafs’ Core Four players see a drop in their production. William Nylander has the smallest drop at 9% and is the only player to see his goal production increase slightly by 3%. Marner is second with a 21% drop in production, and Auston Matthews is third with 24%. John Tavares sees the most significant drop at 34%. 

Related: Maple Leafs Still Need More From Mitch Marner in the Playoffs

These numbers beg the question of why Marner is getting all the attention and blame. Tavares’ numbers have the most significant drop, and he’s hardly talked about.  

Looking at Maple Leafs’ All-Time Postseason Scoring

While doing the research for this, we found something else interesting. If we look at the Maple Leafs’ all-time point production stats, we can see where each of those four players rank in playoff point production. Marner is 12th overall, Matthews 14th, Nylander 17th, and Tavares 40th.  

Just as a sidebar and maybe a discussion for a different time, Morgan Rielly ranks 20th in postseason scoring with 40 points. He is fourth for defensemen, one point behind Tim Horton, five points back of second-place Ian Turnbull, and nine points behind first-place Borje Salming. If Rielly finishes his career with the Maple Leafs, he will become the franchise’s all-time top-scoring defenceman in the postseason.

Related: Toronto Maple Leafs & Mitch Marner Are at a Crossroads

Getting back to Marner, the only player who is ahead of him in the all-time playoff points list with fewer games played is the person at the top. Doug Gilmour has 77 points in 52 games. The next fewest games played are Darryl Sittler’s 65 points in 64 games.

Mitch Marner Toronto Maple Leafs
Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

If we were to look at everyone who is ahead of Marner, Matthews, and Nylander in the overall postseason scoring for the franchise and break their stats down to points per game, the top ten all-time would be:

NameGames PlayedPointsPoints PG
Doug Gilmour52771.48
Darryl Sittler64651.02
Mats Sundin77700.91
Mitch Marner57500.88
Auston Matthews55480.87
William Nylander54430.80
Red Kelly70550.79
Wendel Clark79610.77
Ted Kennedy78600.77
Syl Apps69530.77

In all-time points per game, Marner is fourth, Matthews is fifth, and Nylander is sixth.

The Bottom Line for Maple Leafs Playoff Points

While there is no denying that Marner has struggled to score points in the postseason compared to his regular-season production, he’s not alone. Also, despite his struggles, he sits in fourth place all-time for playoff points per game, just ahead of Matthews and Nylander, who are fifth and sixth, respectively. 

Related: Mitch Marner to Maple Leafs – ‘Switzerland Is Beautiful in September’

Based on our research, the criticism aimed solely at Marner seems misguided. 

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]

Substack The Hockey Writers Toronto Maple Leafs Banner