The Ottawa Senators might not be in the position they hoped for, but they are doing far better than in previous seasons. Their 6-5-0 record ranks fifth in the Atlantic Division and ninth in the Eastern Conference. After ten games in 2023-24 and 2022-23, the Senators were 4-6-0, while in 2021-22, they were 3-6-1, and some rough Novembers all but eliminated them from the playoffs before the New Year. Right now, they are just shy of a playoff spot.
Plenty of noteworthy performances have propelled the Senators to their position in the standings. With a team-leading 16 points in 11 games, Tim Stutzle is on track to beat his career-high 90 points set in 2022-23, as is Drake Batherson, who has 12 points and looks on track to repeat his 2021-22 season. His season was cut short by an injury 31 games in, and when he returned, he lost some jump in his step.
Brady Tkachuk continues to lead with his heart on his sleeve. He has a team-leading seven goals and 44 shots, while Jake Sanderson has taken a massive step in his development with eight points already, making him look like a Norris Trophy candidate.
However, not everything is great. The underlying numbers imply that the Senators have been lucky to start the season, and while that has given them some much-needed breaks, it’s also set the team up on an unsustainable pace that will come to a sudden stop if changes aren’t made.
Senators’ Luck Goes Both Ways
While there’s no question that Stutzle is one of the NHL’s brightest young stars, his campaign to date has been both refreshing and concerning. He is scoring at a 27.3% rate, which is high even for skilled snipers. Last season, Sam Reinhart led the NHL with a 24.5 shooting percentage (Sh%), and Alex Ovechkin, Auston Matthews, and Nathan MacKinnon have never finished a season over a 19.
Where those players thrive is in shot volume; the more shots on net, the more goals they’re likely to score. But Stutzle isn’t firing a ton of shots. After 11 games, he has just 22, putting him 174th league-wide. MacKinnon has already doubled him. Then there’s Adam Gaudette, who has six goals on 17 shots, giving him an astounding 35.3 Sh%, putting him seventh among all players who have at least 10 shots on the season.
Yet, despite the high shooting percentages, the Senators aren’t shooting a lot. The team has an 8.42 Sh% while also putting up the 10th-lowest scoring chances for (SCF) and the second-worst high-danger chances for (HDCF). So, the Senators are seeing the few shots they take go in. However, their shots per 60 minutes are ranked fifth in the NHL at 31.15 per game, implying that they are getting their shots. But from where?
That’s where the luck creeps in. The Senators have an expected goals-for (xGF) at even strength of 20.34, which makes sense considering that, despite their high number of shots per 60 minutes, they aren’t getting enough high-quality ones. But Ottawa has scored 23 goals this season, meaning that a few of their shots are going in that aren’t expected.
The same thing is happening in the defensive zone. The team save percentage (SV%) ranks 13th in the NHL at .892, but they also have the 10th fewest scoring chances against at 234, which gives them an average of 26.36 shots against per 60 minutes, ranked sixth in the NHL. That gives the Senators an expected goals-against (xGF) at even strength of 19.7, but the team has allowed 22 goals in 11 games.
Part of that is due to Mads Sogaard’s single appearance when he allowed four goals on 17 shots. Remove that from Ottawa’s total, and their SV% shoots up to .906, which would rank seventh in the NHL. However, the bigger picture seems to say that, just as often as they get a lucky bounce, they get an unlucky one, hence the almost even record.
Senators Need to Find Balance
One significant concern is Artem Zub’s status. Zub has been out since Oct. 18 with a concussion, which has left a massive gap on Ottawa’s blue line. The strategy has been to play Travis Hamonic on the top pair alongside Jake Sanderson, which has not been ideal. The pair has allowed 11 goals over 145 minutes while contributing to just two, or about a goal every 13 minutes. That’s unsustainable; Hamonic is a valuable depth piece, but if the Senators want to be a playoff team, he can’t remain on the top pairing.
However, they don’t have another option to replace Zub, especially on the right side. Jacob Bernard-Docker has been fine on the third pair alongside his former North Dakota teammate, Tyler Kleven, but the 24-year-old has shown he can’t handle a bigger role if given the opportunity. Beyond him are just Maxence Guenette and Nikolas Matinpalo, who have had success in the American Hockey League (AHL) but struggled in the NHL. What’s worse, Zub has only one season of more than 70 games under his belt. Injuries have been a problem for the Russian defender, which may force the Senators to consider a trade to shore up their defensive depth.
Related: Senators’ Backup Goaltending Isn’t a Problem
That said, goaltender Linus Ullmark has helped even things out. Ullmark has bailed the Senators out of a few issues. While he hasn’t looked quite like a Vezina winner, he’s been one of the more consistent goalies in the NHL this season, and the team’s defence has relied on him to handle the shots they can’t handle. There haven’t been too many, unlike in years past, but it still puts a lot of pressure on the goalie. But without Shane Pinto, one of Ottawa’s most reliable defensive centres who has also been out with an injury, Ullmark has had to step up more often than the Senators would like.
Looking Ahead to the Playoffs
The Senators’ current pace is unsustainable. Stutzle and Gaudette won’t keep shooting the lights out, and without any defensive depth, the team’s blue line can’t afford any major injuries. Ullmark has come as advertised, Batherson and Sanderson have emerged as core players, and Josh Norris looks as good as he ever did, but the stats don’t lie – Ottawa’s success is based on a significant amount of luck.
However, the Senators aren’t even benefitting all that much from it. Sure, their shooting percentages show that more shots are going in than they should, especially considering the lack of HDCF, but that’s only given them one more win in 11 games. Nearly half of all their goals this season have come on the power play, which stands to reason given their 33.33% power play success rate, ranked third in the NHL.
But to rely on the other team getting called for a penalty is putting their fate into the referees’ hands. The Senators need to find out what’s keeping them from thriving at even strength and limit the bad bounces against them. Injuries certainly play a part, but every team struggles with injuries. Without a backup plan, the Senators will again be on the outside of the playoffs.
