There is a trio of teams in the Atlantic Division that have been in some long-term rebuilds. The Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and Buffalo Sabres have all missed the playoffs for seven or more straight seasons, but as it stands today, none of those teams are a lock for a playoff spot in 2024-25. This will be a comparison of where the rebuilds stand today.
How They Got Here
Before diving too deep into what each team has to offer, we have to start by looking at how each team got to this drawn-out rebuild phase.
The Sabres have missed the playoffs for 13 straight years, which is by far the longest streak in the NHL. With multiple failed attempts at taking the next step, the new management and staff have taken a slower and more patient approach. With a number of high-end draft picks, strong value in later rounds, and not swinging for the fences on free agency signings, some may feel they are being too patient, but they are in a strong position now.
The Red Wings spent a very impressive 25 straight seasons in the playoffs from the 1990-91 season until the 2015-16 season, and after winning four Stanley Cups and another two losses in the Final, it is hard to say those years weren’t worth the tough times during the rebuild. The Red Wings hit rock bottom in 2019-20 where they finished with just 17 wins in 71 games, but with strong drafting and a lot of free agency activity, the Red Wings have come the closest to ending their streak out of these three teams.
As for the Senators, after their Cinderella run in the 2017 Eastern Conference Final, things fell hard for them. The season after was where they landed Brady Tkachuk, and since then they have committed to a full tear-down. With former general manager Pierre Dorion being overzealous about the current state, making blockbuster trades for Alex DeBrincat and Jakob Chychrun ended up setting the team back. The new management is taking a more logical look at the state of the team and moving forward with that.
The Teams’ Prospect Pools
In this comparison, we will look do a ranking for each section, and in the end, have a look at which team is in the best position.
In first place in terms of the prospect pools, it is without a doubt the Sabres. They have players such as Jiri Kulich, Isak Rosen, Devon Levi, Konsta Helenius, and other high-end players. The Sabres have done a very good job on the draft floor during this rebuild, especially in the later half. They also have a strong depth in their pool, which includes Nikita Novikov, Anton Wahlberg, and Maxim Strbak.
Related: The NHL’s Best Farm Systems Ranked – 2023-24 Midseason Update
The Red Wings come second with players like Simon Edvinsson, Axel Sandin Pellikka, Nate Danielson, and they just added Michael Brendsegg-Nygard. Like the Sabres’ pool, they are very deep beyond those players, having Sebastian Cossa, Marco Kasper, and William Wallinder down the pipeline. There is a legitimate argument for either one to be in the top spot, especially with the Sabres’ graduated players like Zach Benson.
The one that there is zero doubt about is the Senators having the weakest pool. All of their high-end players have graduated, and they spent two top-12 picks on DeBrincat and Chychrun, who didn’t work well in Ottawa and were traded, and also picked Tyler Boucher 10th overall in 2021, and that isn’t looking like a promising pick. There are some players who do look like they have a strong future, like Carter Yakemchuk, Stephen Halliday, Tyler Kleven, and others, but they lack both the high-end prospects and the depth and can’t compete with what the Sabres and Red Wings have.
Top-Six Forwards
The Red Wings and Senators are in close competition for the top spot here. The Senators have young, established stars in their top-six, while the Red Wings opted to sign Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko to fill in two wings and are more risky picks.
Red Wings Projected Top-Six for 2024-25
DeBrincat-Larkin-Raymond
Tarasenko-Compher-Kane
Senators Projected Top-Six for 2024-25
Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Norris-Pinto-Batherson
Sabres Projected Top-Six for 2024-25
Peterka-Thompson-Tuch
Zucker-Cozens-Quinn
First place here will go to the Senators, but just by a hair. Tim Stutzle is the best player out of the three lists, and to be complemented by Brady Tkachuk on his wing, they create a dynamic top line while paired with Claude Giroux. The second line has Josh Norris and Drake Batherson, who are two offensively talented forwards who will help Shane Pinto continue his emergence as a second-line center. Norris’ health will play a huge impact on the top-six as well.
The Red Wings could take this spot, but the biggest wildcard is Kane. If he can prove that he can stay healthy and nearly point-per-game pace with the Red Wings this year, he could make the argument of the Red Wings having the better top-six an easier decision. Like the Senators, the Red Wings have a very balanced top line. Dylan Larkin has been an excellent center for the past three years, and Lucas Raymond has proven that he is one of the most valuable members of the team. If DeBrincat can bounce back to his 40-goal self, they will be one of the most dangerous top lines.
The Sabres fall third on this list. With such a young group and a down year from some of them last season, there is certainly reason to believe they will be better. Jack Quinn staying healthy will help, and if Cozens can bounce back after a step back last season, he could certainly be the best second-line option out of the three groups. Everybody knows what Tage Thompson is capable of, and if he can get back to the superstar-level play he had in 2022-23, they will be closer than last year showed.
Top-Four Defensemen
All three of these groups have a combination of young players and wildcard veteran players.
Red Wings Projected Top-Four for 2024-25
Chiarot-Seider
Edvinsson-Petry
Senators Projected Top-Four for 2024-25
Sanderson-Zub
Chabot-Jensen
Sabres Projected Top-Four for 2024-25
Byram-Dahlin
Power-Jokiharju
There is no group here that is significantly better than the rest. Rasmus Dahlin is the best defenseman on this list, followed by Jake Sanderson and then Moritz Seider. The rest of the defensemen are either mediocre or unproven.
The first spot will go to the Senators. They have Thomas Chabot, who was once a high-end top-pair defenseman who has struggled with injuries and hasn’t played as well as he could have been with the absence of a long-term partner that balances his game well. Artem Zub and Nick Jensen are two strong complimentary right-handed defensemen who can play a defensively-minded game to help the team out.
Next up is the Red Wings. Depending on how Edvinsson plays this season, it could be the best group among these three, but with Jeff Petry and Ben Chiarot aging and struggling at times, they will need a lot of stand-out players in that group of four to emerge as the top group.
The Sabres fall in third but have far and away the most potential. If everything goes right for all three teams, the Sabres have the best group. They have the most potential. Dahlin is the best defenseman in this group, Owen Power has the most potential, and Bowen Byram can play excellent hockey. The only outlier on the Sabres’ top-four is Henri Jokiharju. He isn’t a top-four defenseman and while his game can compliment players well, he is the worst player on the list. The Sabres could easily prove me wrong on this one, but they are locked in on the potential rather than the surefire thing for 2024-25.
Depth Players
Throughout the bottom of the lineup, the bottom-six forwards and bottom-pair defenders can play crucial roles. They aren’t the highlight-reel players, but depth can make or break a team.
Sabres Depth Players
Benson-McLeod-Greenway
Malenstyn-Lafferty-Aube-Kubel
Samuelsson-Clifton
Red Wings Depth Players
Rasmussen-Copp-Berggren
Motte-Veleno-Fischer
Maata-Gustafsson
Senators Depth Players
Perron-Greig-Amadio
Gregor-Ostapchuk-MacEwen
Kleven-Bernard-Docker
Again, all three teams have young players in some of these roles, and mixed in are some veterans. Each team has a few standouts, but as a full group, none of these groups are too special.
First place will go to the Red Wings. They have Andrew Copp and Tyler Motte, who are two very reliable bottom-six players, and surrounding them are young, impressive players. Michael Rasmussen is a big winger who is capable of scoring 40 points, Jonatan Berggren isn’t as proven, but could have a big impact on the Wings this year, and Veleno and Fischer are two very solid fourth-line players with offensive upside. Olli Maata and Erik Gustafsson are two fine third-pair players. You may want an upgrade on one of them, but they both are adequate players for the third pair.
Second will be the Sabres. Having Benson in this group really helps raise their level, and having a strong defensive and physical presence from Jordan Greenway, Beck Malenstyn, and Sam Lafferty, there is a great balance in that group. They aren’t one of the best bottom-six groups in the league, but it is good enough. As for their defense, having Samuelsson and Connor Clifton makes for a strong defensive and physical third pair. Samuelsson has proven that he belongs higher in the lineup, but for the sake of balance, having him here makes the most sense.
The Senators fall last here, but all three are pretty close. They have the best third line of the bunch, with David Perron and Michael Amadio on the wings for Ridly Greig. That line will have good offensive capabilities and a ton of peskiness and physicality. The fourth line is nothing to write home about though. Noah Gregor is a fine fourth-liner, and Zach MacEwen would be better as a 13th forward, Zack Ostapchuk is projected to fill the center role and as a rookie is hard to project a season for. The defense has Tyler Kleven, a promising rookie, but similar to Ostapchuk, hard to project just how well he will transition, and Jacob Bernard-Docker, who is a good third-pair defenseman.
Again, all three groups are pretty close in contention here, and really, all across the board.
Goaltending
Goaltending is what can truly make or break a team. All three teams have struggled mightily over the past number of years finding stability and consistent goaltending.
Red Wings Goaltenders
Ville Husso
Cam Talbot
Alex Lyon
Sabres Goaltenders
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Devon Levi
James Reimer
Senators Goaltenders
Linus Ullmark
Anton Forsberg
Mads Sogaard
These are three very different goaltending trios. The Red Wings have three free-agent acquisitions, the Sabres are running with two home-grown goalies, and the Senators went big and traded for one of the top goalies in the league.
The Senators take first place with Linus Ullmark. After acquiring him earlier in the offseason, Ullmark is by far the best goalie on this list. With a Vezina Trophy win in 2022-23 and being one of the best goalies in the league over the past three seasons, his resume speaks for itself. Having Anton Forsberg as the backup is a bit of a wildcard. He had a .917 save percentage (SV%) a few years ago but is coming off of a .890 SV% season. He will likely fall somewhere in the middle and be an average backup.
Related: Senators’ Goaltending Depth After Free Agency
Next up is the Sabres. Having just signed Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to a big contract, he is their clear starter. He played fantastic in the later half of the season once he took the reigns of the crease, and has a lot of potential to be a high-end goalie. As for Devon Levi, he is one of the best up-and-coming goalies in the league and is ready to take over a full-time position this year. As a bit of security, they signed James Reimer as well, who is more than capable of playing in the NHL still and can be a great option for them in whatever role they need.
Third is the Red Wings, and even still, they have a strong trio. Ville Husso is a wildcard and it is hard to predict what kind of season he will have. He had a .919 SV% in St. Louis prior to joining the Red Wings, but since joining the club, he has a .895 SV% across two seasons. Cam Talbot is likely going to be the go-to guy, and outside of his poor season in Ottawa, has been pretty consistent over the past few years. He will likely be close to a league-average goaltender, but he has the capability to be better than that. Having Alex Lyon in the mix helps too. He isn’t likely to be a starter for the club, and he had below-average numbers last season but is capable of being a .900+ SV% goaltender in the league when needed.
Who Is In the Best Position?
It is hard to say which team is in the best position. In the long-term outlook, it is likely the Sabres, for this upcoming season, there is a legitimate argument for each team to be the best of the three and push for a playoff spot. There will be a poll done before the season starts with the writers here at The Hockey Writers predicting the season standings, and following these three teams in that will be interesting.
