The Ottawa Senators are halfway through the season, and at some point, fans will have to accept that the team is exactly what the numbers say it is. After 41 games, the numbers say that the team is, at best, run-of-the-mill. What many Senators fans must be thinking, but can’t yet bring themselves to say out loud, is that the team is on its way to missing the playoffs.
President of hockey operations and general manager Steve Staios came close to acknowledging that reality at a Jan. 2 press conference, explaining, “We’ll contend when we’re ready to contend. I think we’re continuing to build towards that … I think we have a good young team that continues to develop.”
That tone is a far cry from the heady boast of his head coach, Travis Green, on the opening day of training camp last fall, when he said, “We’re here not just to make the playoffs. We’re here to do a lot more than that.” That seems unlikely if things don’t turn around – and soon.
The Senators by the Numbers at the Halfway Mark
Tied for second place in the Atlantic Division after their first 20 games, the Senators looked like legitimate contenders for one of the division’s three playoff spots. However, as the table shows, it’s hard for anyone to believe that now:
| Metric | After 20 Games | After 41 Games |
| Standing in Atlantic Division | Tied for 2nd | Tied for 7th |
| PTS% | .600 | .549 |
| Record – First 20 vs Next 21 Games | 11-7-2 (PTS% = .600) | 10-10-1 (PTS% = .500) |
At the halfway mark, the Senators are now hoping they can squeak into the postseason by clinching one of the Eastern Conference’s two wild-card spots. But they are quickly falling behind in the race.
True believers will point out that the Senators are only a few points out of a wild-card spot. But competition will intensify from here on, and none of their rivals will roll over. Not only that, but their 13 matchups through the rest of January include three against division rivals and tilts with three division leaders, the Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights.
Related: Senators’ Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance in December
Simple math shows the Senators face a real challenge qualifying for the postseason. Generally, teams need a minimum of 95 points to punch a ticket to the playoffs. With their 45 points at the time of writing, the Senators would need 50 of the possible 82 points available to them in their remaining 41 games. That’s a PTS% of .610. To put that into perspective, only seven other teams have recorded better so far this season.
So what happened to the Senators’ high hopes at the start of the season?
Senators Lack Consistency
The Senators have lacked consistency all season. They have managed to string together just two winning streaks – three consecutive wins in late October and four in mid-December. Neither was long enough to propel them up the standings and keep them there. Both streaks came to an end against teams they should have beaten – the Chicago Blackhawks in October and the Sabres in December. The club can’t seem to get any momentum going – at least not the kind teams need to qualify for a playoff berth in the spring.
Senators Need More Desperation
Perhaps worse, they don’t seem desperate enough to win. What drives fans crazy is the apparent offhand attitude about the stinkers the team has mailed in this season. The latest came on Dec. 29 when they lost 4-1 to the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets.
A seemingly detached Green explained the loss matter-of-factly, saying, “We haven’t had a stinker for a while. I can’t explain it. We were a half step behind everywhere, the passing wasn’t very good, and usually, when you’re not skating well, you’re going to be late to a lot of places. I thought we looked slow tonight” (from Bruce Garrioch, “Ottawa Senators serve up a stinker in loss to Blue Jackets to close out 2025”, The Ottawa Citizen, 29/12/2025).
Not to be outdone in the laid-back department, Jake Sanderson said of the loss, “The opportunities they got we kind of gave to them. It’s frustrating. You can hear some boos coming down at the end of the game, and you never want to hear that. You never want to see the fans leave the game early, so it’s on us to come together and figure it out.” Sanderson didn’t say when, exactly, he and his teammates planned on doing that. But it needs to be soon.
Without Bad Luck, the Senators Haven’t Had Any Luck at All
The Senators haven’t been lucky this season. Captain Brady Tkachuk missed 20 games with a thumb injury. If that weren’t bad enough, the team had to battle through other lengthy injuries to key players, including centreman Shane Pinto, top-four defenceman Thomas Chabot, blueliner Tyler Kleven and veteran forward Lars Eller.
Lady Luck sometimes deals bad hands, but good teams know how to play them. The Senators have done that reasonably well so far. Still, it’s in goal that Lady Luck has been cruellest this season.
Senators’ Goaltending Not the Stuff of NHL Contenders
Linus Ullmark was the Senators’ starting goalie in 28 games this season before being granted a leave of absence for personal reasons. Everyone wishes him well and hopes for his speedy return to play. On when that will be, Staios said he didn’t know, saying, “We’ll just leave it at that. We’ll give him the time he needs … to make sure things are in order.”
Still, in the last two seasons with the Senators, Ullmark never returned to his Vezina Trophy-winning form from 2022-23 with the Boston Bruins, when he posted a save percentage (SV%) of .915 and a goals-against average (GAA) of 2.57. This season, with an SV% of .881 and a GAA of 2.95, he hasn’t even been an average NHL goaltender.
If Ullmark is out for the long term, much of the Senators’ fate will be left to Leevi Merilainen – the 23-year-old Finn who had just 24 NHL games on his resume before becoming the Senators’ number one after Ullmark’s departure. In 14 starts, he’s recorded an SV% of .869 and a GAA of 3.49. That’s not remotely good enough for the Senators to contend.
The problem is there’s nothing better on the team’s American Hockey League affiliate, Belleville Senators. Thirty-year-old Hunter Shepard has only six NHL games to his credit, during which he’s allowed almost four goals per game and stopped just over 85% of the pucks fired at him. The other option is Mads Sogaard, who hasn’t recorded much better over his 29 NHL games.
If Ullmark is going to be out of action for a while, Staios will need to find a replacement. That will be a difficult pill to swallow since, up to now, adding top-six scoring punch had been at the top of his to-do list.
Senators Need More Offence
The Senators’ 133 goals this season rank 13th in the NHL, and their five-on-five scoring, at 87 goals, is just slightly better than the NHL average. While none of this is beyond middling, their power play is stellar at 26.64% – ranked 5th in the league.
Still, the Senators won’t be a contender if their only scoring strength is on the man advantage. They need more goals from more players. Their line compositions have varied this season, but in their last five games, their top six scored almost half their points. The bottom six notched just over a third.
It’s also becoming painfully obvious that despite all the hype, the Senators don’t possess the exceptional young talent their fans claim. Nobody in a Senators sweater cracks the league’s top 20 in goals scored or points generated. Tim Stutzle comes closest at 21st in goals and 26th in points. While Stutzle, Tkachuk, Drake Batherson and Shane Pinto may be fun to watch, they simply are not among the league’s best forwards on any measure.
As good as the Senators’ offence may be on many nights, it’s not good enough to make them a contender, especially when they need to overcome some of the league’s worst goaltending and its second-worst penalty kill.
The Senators’ Achilles Heel – The Penalty Kill
If the Senators don’t make the playoffs this season, one of the biggest reasons will be their penalty kill (PK). At 72.9 %, it’s the second worst in the league. What’s more concerning is that it’s been that way all season long. The team’s penalty killing combinations have made no progress.
Playoff contenders have respectable PKs. Last year, the two wild card teams in the Eastern Conference – the Senators and the Montreal Canadiens recorded PK success rates of 77.73% and 80.93%, respectively. Ottawa’s PK this year is nowhere near respectable, and that needs to change – now.
Clock is Ticking on Senators’ 2025-26 Season
Time is running out for Staios to make sure his team is a playoff contender. In addition to a new starting goalie and a top-six forward, a top-four, right-shot defenceman is probably on his shopping list. With limited cap space, few prospects in Belleville to move, and no first-round draft pick, these acquisitions will be hard to make. What’s more, there’s very little shopping time left with the Olympic roster freeze taking effect in just 30 days and the Mar. 7 trade deadline arriving soon after that.
Change is coming to the Senators’ roster – it must if the team is to make the playoffs. If they don’t, then heads will roll as Staios moves on from this roster.
