Regarding contracts in hockey, we usually hear about the bad ones more than the good ones. When it comes to the Philadelphia Flyers, which four of their current deals fit the latter criteria?
Owen Tippett — $6.2 Million AAV Through 2031-32
This is somewhat bold to say without a game being played under this new, long-term deal, but Owen Tippett’s contract seems to have great value. Scoring 28 goals and 53 points in 78 games last season is good (especially with just 16:35 of average ice time), but there’s seemingly another gear to unlock for the 25-year-old. He could go nuclear in 2024-25 and beyond, making his $6.2 million average annual value (AAV) contract a wildcard and consequently a pretty exciting one.
Tippett has shown flashes but has yet to put it all together. Something I personally took issue with in his play was poor shot selection on a game-to-game basis, but I now realize that there was a bigger picture even if it did tend to hurt the Flyers at the time. From a pure talent standpoint, he is arguably the team’s most gifted non-Matvei Michkov player. He recorded the fastest skating speed in the league, is lethal on the rush, and has an excellent shot when he’s given space. If he can turn his raw talent into greater production, there’s first-line potential in his long-term future. For just $6.2 million? That’s a steal.
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Even entering this season, I think there’s a chance that Tippett can reach the 40-goal mark. It’ll be a challenge, no doubt, but with greater usage and taking better shots, it’s not a poor bet to make. Adding a talent like Michkov to the roster could help create higher-quality looks.
Joel Farabee — $5 Million AAV Through 2027-28
While Joel Farabee is likely on the way out in my eyes due to the fact that he’s at the bottom of the food chain among the Flyers’ five major wingers (Michkov, Tippett, Travis Konecny, and Tyson Foerster), he is still on an excellent contract. What he provides at just $5 million AAV should be an attractive deal if anyone is looking to add it to their roster.
Farabee has a good IQ and is very efficient on the rush. He can create those plays and finish them off, making him a strong fit for the Flyers’ roster. His inconsistencies toward the end of last season were an issue, to be sure, but his overall play was promising. I don’t really think there’s another level to his game unless he starts getting a lot more ice time, but it’s possible that he takes another step. If not, though, this contract is a very good one all the same.
Scoring 50 points with just 16:11 of average ice time is more than sufficient, but he was on pace for closer to 70 points with slightly less ice time around the All-Star Break. Even though he hit a wall, his production for a middle-six forward on a team that had the second-worst shooting percentage in the NHL and the sixth-worst scoring output is impressive. For just 5.7 percent of the maximum cap hit for a team ($88 million), that’s not too shabby.
Nick Seeler — $2.7 Million AAV Through 2027-28
While the term of four years is a little bit long for a physical 31-year-old defenseman whose calling card is blocking shots, the AAV for Nick Seeler is fantastic. He had a surprisingly great 2022-23 campaign where he finished third in relative expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60 Rel) among defensemen with 500 minutes of ice time at even strength. He was one of the best shutdown defenders in the game, and he backed that up in 2023-24 with an even larger workload than the season prior.
Among that same 500-minute minimum and at even strength in 2023-24, Seeler was 17th in relative expected goals percentage (xGF% Rel), smushed between Jaccob Slavin and Jake Sanderson—he was among great company even if his strength of competition was far lower. Other than a small 22-minute sample with Egor Zamula, the only defenseman who young newcomer Jamie Drysdale played even somewhat decent minutes with was, of course, Seeler. He made everyone’s job around him easier, and for that, he deserves some serious praise.
An AAV of $2.7 million is about the going rate for good bottom-pairing defensemen, but Seeler is more than just that. He was only fifth in average ice time among defenders on the team, which isn’t particularly high, but he consistently lined up on the second pairing and was one of the best in the business in his role. Right now, the value here is excellent.
Sam Ersson — $1.45 Million AAV Through 2025-26
A contract signed just before his 2023-24 campaign, goaltender Sam Ersson is making so little money for a starter that it allowed the Flyers to give backup Ivan Fedotov a sizable $3.275 million AAV—we’re looking at a bargain here. While it’s only for the next two seasons, Ersson’s contract is easily one of the best on the team.
I’ve gone through Ersson’s 2023-24 season in detail a few times now, but it’s important to reiterate that his ceiling was one of the best goaltenders in the game for an extended period of time but his floor was unfortunately one of the worst. In a better situation now with a full-time backup, he could surprise a lot of people who weren’t paying close attention. He bailed the Flyers out in several games they had no business being in, which is a positive for a 24-year-old rookie, to say the least.
The Flyers are pretty strong prospect-wise between the pipes with Alexei Kolosov, Yegor Zavragin, and Carson Bjarnason, but Ersson could still be a part of the long-term solution in Philadelphia. With that kind of potential, having a lower AAV than even some backups is great for the salary cap but maybe not for the goaltender.
The Flyers are by no means in the best salary cap situation, as they are right up against the ceiling despite being an average team, more or less. Still, these deals are a part of the solution to this dilemma.
Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
