Connor McDavid’s future in Edmonton was the big storyline of this past offseason. That is, until he signed a two-year extension with the Edmonton Oilers. For weeks, fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs started convincing themselves McDavid was “coming home”, only to find out he’d be taking a few more cracks at the Stanley Cup where he currently plays.
When it was learned McDavid wouldn’t be heading to Toronto after the 2025-26 season, many Maple Leafs fans just kicked their narrative down the road a bit. The diehards were still convinced that after coming off back-to-back Stanley Cup Final losses, there was no way the game’s best player would stay in Edmonton forever. The Maple Leafs would just have to wait a little longer.
It might be time for fans who are still clinging onto that hope to let it go.
Even NHL Players Don’t See McDavid Leaving the Oilers
For more than three months, McDavid kept everyone guessing. Then he signed. Not only did he sign, but he also took a massive discount for two years, inking an extension for the same money he was already making, $12.5 million per season.
It’s no wonder players believe he’s likely to stick around, probably even past the expiring date of the deal he just agreed to.
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In a recent player poll conducted by The Athletic, even NHL players don’t believe Toronto is the likely destination. The Oilers were the overwhelming favorite among players surveyed, earning 56.4% of the vote when asked where McDavid would ultimately finish out his prime.
Granted, the Maple Leafs did come in at No. 2, but with just 10% of the vote. The New York Rangers and Chicago Blackhawks came in third and fourth, respectively.
The Maple Leafs Should Probably Move On From the McDavid Dream
Ten percent isn’t nothing, but it’s far from the belief held by some Toronto fans who’ve convinced themselves McDavid is destined for the center of the hockey universe. The responses from players made it clear the idea isn’t widely bought into.
“I could see him staying around. He’s been there so long now. … I think it all kind of depends on how these next two years go, but I can see him sticking around,” said one player polled.
Another noted:
“I think this is kind of a prove-it for the GM and ownership. I think if they can be competitive and build a good team around him, there’s no reason he doesn’t sign for around the same, even with the cap going up, and just try and keep staying there and winning a Cup.”
source – ‘NHL player poll: Where will McDavid play in 3 years? And Crosby next year?’ – The Athletic Staff – 12/09/2025
The message from the league’s players was loud and clear: the dream is fun, but the likelihood he plays anywhere but Edmonton is slim. The Oilers would have to mess things up pretty badly before he would consider bolting. Players seem to think that it doesn’t matter whether he wins or loses. As long as the Oilers are competitive, McDavid stays.
It Might Not Be Worth It When He’s Ready
McDavid is still the world’s best player, but the gap is arguably closing. Recent debates about how good Nathan MacKinnon has been this season have raised questions about how much McDavid is lapping the field. And, by the time his current contract is done, those questions will gain attention, especially with players like Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini taking the mantle as the top faces of the NHL.
The Oilers star has unfinished business in Edmonton, and by the time he finishes it, the Maple Leafs will have to make a huge decision about how much he’s worth. Committing as much money as it will take to lock him in three seasons from now comes with some risk.
Is that the kind of risk the Maple Leafs want to take?
