Red Wings Scoring Projections for 2025-26

My scoring projections for the 2025-26 Detroit Red Wings were all set – the analysis, the calculations, the adjustments. Then, the kids changed everything.

Not only did Emmitt Finnie, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, and Axel Sandin-Pellikka make the team, they’re also expected to hold prominent roles – Finnie skating on the top line with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond (for now) and the latter two rookies occupying spots on PP2.

Back to the drawing board.

Now, with 100 percent more Finnie, Brandsegg-Nygard, and Sandin-Pellikka, I’m ready to share my scoring projections. Well, my 2.0 scoring projections.

Red Wings Scoring Projections: How the Model Works

Before getting to the numbers, I want to share that there is some method to the madness. These aren’t randomly chosen numbers based on vibes. There’s actually quite a bit of math involved.

Detroit Red Wings — The Red Wings huddle before a power play kicks off. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

My scoring projections model takes into account:

Player roles
Age
Contract status
Familiarity with the coaching staff
Historical data

And, as I’ve said previously, these projections should be viewed as the central point of a bell curve – the most likely scenario for each player. They could score more or less, but they likely won’t deviate too greatly from the projection.

With that said, let’s get to the numbers.

Below are my scoring projections for each Red Wings player who I expect to dress for 20-plus games this season.

Player	GP	G	A	PTS
Lucas Raymond	82	31	50	81
Dylan Larkin	76	35	45	80
Alex DeBrincat	80	33	39	72
Patrick Kane	68	22	34	56
Moritz Seider	82	9	44	53
Marco Kasper	80	25	23	48
J.T. Compher	80	13	24	37
Simon Edvinsson	80	8	28	36
Andrew Copp	80	11	21	32
James van Riemsdyk	64	12	19	31
Elmer Soderblom	64	14	15	29
Jonatan Berggren	51	12	16	28
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard	54	10	12	22
Michael Rasmussen	65	9	13	22
Ben Chiarot	80	5	14	19
Nate Danielson	42	8	9	17
Axel Sandin-Pellikka	62	4	13	17
Albert Johansson	70	4	12	16
Mason Appleton	62	6	9	15
Jacob Bernard-Docker	50	2	6	8
Emmitt Finnie	26	3	4	7
Travis Hamonic	50	2	5	7

The usual suspects are at the top – Larkin, Raymond, and DeBrincat, followed closely by Seider and Kane. Beyond those five, I can see Kasper having a breakout campaign. He looked like a true top-six forward during training camp and the preseason, and could reach 25 goals and/or 50 points by season’s end. (For what it’s worth, that’s what his Todd McLellan-era production looked like extrapolated over a full season.)

We should also see more production from the bottom-six forward group. Brandsegg-Nygard’s emergence will contribute to this, as should a full year from Soderblom and van Riemsdyk’s proficiency around the crease. Appleton is also an offensive upgrade over Tyler Motte and Christian Fischer.

Elsewhere, Edvinsson could take a step offensively. He has extra incentive to perform in 2025-26 given the fact that he’ll be a restricted free agent this summer.

Finally, I expect there to be several call-ups throughout the season. They’re not included here due to the 20-game cut-off. For example, Carter Mazur will surely spend some time in Detroit, as will Justin Holl, Erik Gustafsson, Amadeus Lombardi, and Austin Watson.

Final Word

Based on the projections above, the Red Wings should be able to surpass their offensive output from a season ago. Growth from Raymond, Kasper, and Seider should fuel this. The same could be said for the skill that Danielson, Brandsegg-Nygard, and Sandin-Pellikka bring to the table.

The Red Wings may not be one of the highest-scoring teams or superstar-driven, but there’s enough scoring depth to challenge for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. And that depth will be needed on a nightly basis given the parity within the Atlantic Division and conference as a whole – every game and point will matter in 2025-26.

Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.