The ink on Jonathan Marchessault’s contract in Nashville isn’t dry, but it certainly feels old. When the Predators handed the former Conn Smythe winner a five-year, $27.5 million deal back in the summer of 2024, the vision was clear: inject championship pedigree into a roster trying to punch through the heavyweights of the Central Division.
Fast forward to the 2025-26 campaign, and that vision has blurred significantly. The Predators have reportedly pivoted into “sell mode,” and Marchessault — once the prized acquisition — has found himself squarely in the middle of the trade block.
It’s a harsh reality of the salary cap era. You pay for past performance hoping it extends into the future, but sometimes the cliff arrives sooner than expected. Marchessault is struggling. Through 28 games this season, the 35-year-old winger has managed just 10 points — seven goals and three assists — accompanied by a glaring minus-18 rating.
But this isn’t just about a slump; it’s about fit, timeline, and a player who frankly looks like he needs a change of scenery. The buzz around the league is getting louder, and while his production has dipped, his reputation as a 42-goal scorer and playoff performer means the phone in Nashville is still ringing.
The Toronto Dilemma: Desperation vs. Logic
Whenever a top-six forward hits the market, the conversation inevitably turns to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Insider Pierre LeBrun has linked Marchessault to Toronto, and the fit on paper is obvious. The Leafs are, as always, in the market for someone who can ride shotgun with Auston Matthews or John Tavares without looking out of place.
Toronto needs goals, but specifically, they need “heavy” goals — the kind scored in the dirty areas during April and May. Marchessault’s resume suggests he is exactly that player. However, the logistics are messy.
The Leafs are asset-poor. They don’t have a treasure chest of picks and prospects to throw at Nashville. Consequently, a deal here wouldn’t be a blockbuster exchange of talent; it would be a cap maneuver. Nashville would essentially be moving off the remaining three years of Marchessault’s $5.5 million average annual value (AAV), likely accepting a middling return — perhaps Max Domi, a B-level prospect, or a draft pick — just to clear the books.
Related – NHL Rumors: Marchessault & Maple Leafs, Fleury Update, Tomasek Leaves Oilers
The skepticism here is valid. Does adding another aging winger really solve Toronto’s problems? Critics argue that the Leafs’ issues stem from a lack of pace and transition speed. Adding a 35-year-old, regardless of his hands or hockey IQ, might compound the team’s sluggishness rather than cure it. It’s a gamble: are you betting on the Marchessault of 2024, or the struggling version we see today?
The Montreal Homecoming: A Perfect Landing Spot?
If Toronto is the “hockey” fit, Montreal is the “narrative” fit. Chris Johnston has labeled the Canadiens as a potentially perfect landing spot, and it’s hard to disagree.
Marchessault is a Quebec native. In this market, that matters. The Canadiens are currently fielding the youngest roster in the NHL, a group teeming with talent but occasionally lacking the stabilizing presence of a veteran who has climbed the mountain. Marchessault could provide that mentorship, insulating the kids while finishing his career in his home province.
There is a mechanical advantage here for Montreal as well. Marchessault holds a full no-movement clause (NMC). He controls his destiny. If he decides he wants to go home, Nashville’s leverage evaporates. Sources suggest a move to Montreal would “sit well” with him, making this a very real possibility.
The financial component is intriguing. To make the money work, Montreal would likely need to send a significant salary back the other way. Patrik Laine’s $8.7 million cap hit has been floated as a potential contract Nashville could absorb to balance the ledger. It would be a complicated transaction, but one that solves problems for both franchises: Nashville gets out of a long-term commitment, and Montreal adds a cultural pillar.
The Field: Contenders Circling the Water
While the Canadian markets dominate the headlines, they aren’t the only ones doing their due diligence. The Washington Capitals, New Jersey Devils, and Tampa Bay Lightning are all expected to kick the tires as the deadline approaches.
Related – Berube’s Future, Predators Plans, Kyrou Talk, & More NHL Rumors
These teams fit the profile of a standard Marchessault suitor: contenders looking to maximize a window. For a team like Tampa or Washington, the specific appeal is playoff experience. They aren’t looking for a cornerstone; they are looking for a guy who doesn’t grip his stick too tight in Game 7.
The Cost of Doing Business
Facilitating this trade won’t be as simple as a handshake. The hurdles are significant.
First, there is the aforementioned NMC. Marchessault holds the cards. If he doesn’t like the destination, he stays put. This limits Nashville’s ability to create a bidding war. They can’t just sell to the highest bidder; they have to sell to a bidder Marchessault approves of.
Second is the retention issue. At $5.5 million for three more years, Marchessault is an expensive distressed asset. For a team like Toronto to bite, Nashville might have to eat a portion of that salary, turning a “sell” into a “pay to go away” scenario. Alternatively, they have to take back a problematic contract (like Domi or Laine) to make the math work.
The Verdict
Ultimately, acquiring Marchessault right now is a calculated risk. You are looking at a player with a minus-18 rating and betting that it’s a symptom of the environment, not the player’s decline.
General managers are seduced by pedigree. They remember the Conn Smythe run. They remember the 42-goal season just two years ago. They see a player who drags teams into the fight.
If Nashville is truly ready to cut bait, someone is going to take that chance. Whether it’s a homecoming in Montreal or a pressure-cooker role in Toronto, Marchessault’s days in gold appear numbered. The only question left is which GM believes they can turn back the clock.
AI tools were used to support the creation or distribution of this content, however, it has been carefully edited and fact-checked by a member of The Hockey Writers editorial team. For more information on our use of AI, please visit our Editorial Standards page.
