From a shaky start to becoming the best team in the NHL in 2025 and a seven-game losing streak to finish the season, it’s been a rollercoaster ride of a campaign for the Dallas Stars. On Saturday, they will begin their quest for the Cup against the Colorado Avalanche. Two weeks ago, the Stars looked the favorite to win this series, even if it was by the slimmest of margins. Now, their recent two-week cliff dive has clouded an otherwise very good regular season.
Related: Avalanche vs. Stars: 2025 Round 1 Stanley Cup Playoff Preview
On the other side, the Avalanche completely revamped their roster mid-season, giving them a deeper team with better goaltending than the squad that lost to the Stars in Round 2 in last year’s playoffs. Oh ya, like the two stars in Edmonton, you can’t talk about the Avalanche without mentioning Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, the two best players in the league at their position, or at least in the top three.
There are three keys to the Stars’ success against the Avalanche. But first, here’s a look at where the Stars are heading into the playoffs.
Stars Limping Into the Playoffs
The Stars are limping into game 83, both literally and figuratively. Tyler Seguin returned to the lineup for the last game of the season after having surgery in December, so that’s a huge plus. There’s a lot of speculation about Miro Heiskanen’s status and when he will return: some reports say this series, some say in Round 2, but we know it will not be for Game 1. His playing or not playing will be a massive factor in this series.
One injury that has been forgotten is Nils Lundqvist, who was ruled out for the season in February, thus the trade for Cody Ceci and the emergence of Lian Bichsel as a mainstay on the blue line. Jason Robertson left Wednesday’s game with a knee injury and left the arena wearing a brace, but we don’t yet know the significance of the injury.
That’s the literal side of ‘limping’. Here’s the figurative side. In the last 14 games of the season, the Stars had a seven-game winning streak that was immediately followed by a seven-game losing streak. During their winning streak, there was a lot of concern about the Stars’ game despite that they were winning. Then the losing streak hit, and it seemed like a streak that was waiting in the weeds. Does this negative play matter, or are the playoffs the ultimate clean slate?
While a matchup against the Avalanche has been slated since the trade deadline, there was a shot at the division title towards the beginning of the last seven games, which would have matched them up against a different opponent. Maybe after blowing their chance, the Stars were just mailing it in until the playoffs started. However, their stats over the last 14 games prove otherwise.
From Jan. 1 to March 20, the Stars were first in the NHL in wins, second in goals scored, 11th in goals against, second in power-play percentage, and third on the penalty kill. Their overall record in that stretch was 21-8-3. From March 22 until the end of the season, they were 7-5-2, which isn’t awful, but the underlying numbers are worse. They scored the eighth-most goals in the league during that stretch, which is a dip but still pretty good. Their goals against, however, dropped to 21st. Their power play was ranked 25th, and their penalty kill was 26th.
The last 14 games don’t erase an entire season. However, there is a legitimate reason to be concerned about the last few weeks heading into the playoffs. With all the doom and gloom out of the way, here’s a look at how the Stars can win this series.
Key #1: Take Advantage of Home-Ice Advantage
Historically, Colorado’s Ball Arena has been known as a massive disadvantage for the road team. While that’s not untrue, the Stars have the better home record between the two teams. The Stars went 28-10-3 at home this season, while the Avalanche went 26-12-3. This stat looked better before the Stars’ losing streak, since they lost their last three home games. On the road, the Stars were 22-16-3, while the Avalanche went 23-17-1. Again, the Stars lost their last four road games. While the Stars have the edge in both categories, it’s as close as it gets, which is why the Stars need to take advantage of the fact that they have more home games than Colorado in this series.
Of course, it would benefit any team to win Game 1, and maybe even Game 2, but it seems necessary for the Stars. First of all, Dallas has lost seven straight Game 1s. That’s right. Seven, which is weird, considering they’ve made it to the Conference Final in two consecutive playoffs. It would be a great boost to snap that streak on Saturday. Second, considering that the end of the season was downright terrible, what a lift it would be to head to Colorado up 2-0 in the series and wash off the dirt from the last two weeks.
Finally, as a good team on the road, it takes so much pressure off to get the job done in the first two games, and that is exactly what the team has: a lot of pressure. They have been two wins away from the Stanley Cup Final for two straight years, and up until a month ago, the Stars were trending to make a deep run. Sports are full of recency bias. That’s just how it is. This losing streak is no different, and a sweep in the first two games would change the narrative.
Key #2: Stars’ Special Teams Has to Be Special
We already broke down the disparity between the special teams in the first 80 days of 2025 and the last couple of weeks of the regular season, but the Stars’ special teams have been a rollercoaster all year, specifically the power play.
As of Dec. 31, the Stars had the 28th-ranked power play at 15.3%. They have since jumped up to 17th at 22.0%. Yet, there’s a tale of two halves here, and we will soon see which half is the real one or if it’s somewhere in the middle. From Jan. 1 to the beginning of the final 14 games, their power play was at 33.7%. That tanked in the last 14 games to 18.4%, which is close to the 2024 portion of the season.
In the playoffs, everything tightens up, and opportunities become few and far between. That makes special teams extremely important. That goes for the penalty kill, too, which has been great all season. The Stars finished fourth in the league with an 82% success rate. In the last 14 games, that dropped to 73.5%, ranked 26th in the NHL. Again, were they just on cruise control for the final stretch of the season, or is this a concerning trend?
There’s a whole other conversation about the Stars’ top players who will need to produce at a high level. But that is especially true for the power play. Wyatt Johnston and Robertson lead the way with 11 and nine power-play goals, respectively, this season. Johnston had 25 power-play points, and Robertson had 19. Matt Duchene had 27 points, and Roope Hintz had 21, while Thomas Harley had 15 points from the backend. Dallas has the horses to do it – they just have to execute.
Key #3: Depth Production Has to Shine for Stars
The Stars and the Avalanche have mirroring stats in most categories, but the Stars have the clear edge in depth and goaltending, and I’ve chosen depth as the final key that we’re headlining. If we can pretend that Robertson will be healthy entering Game 1, that gives the Stars a top-six that consists of Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Mason Marchment, Duchene, Seguin, with Hintz and Johnston bouncing in and out of the top spot at center. That is a pretty nice top-six.
That leaves the bottom six, which is deep in its own right, with Mikael Granlund, Hintz or Johnston, Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov, Oskar Back, Sam Steel, Colin Blackwell, and Mavrik Bourque. Steel, Back, and Blackwell will be the healthy scratches that come in and out of the lineup, maybe Bourque as well. Dadonov has 20 goals and 40 points this season, and Bourque and Steel each have 25 points. Then, you have Benn, who has 16 goals and 49 points on top of 102 games of playoff experience. Having a center like Johnston or Hintz running the show is a huge plus for the roster.
Now, if Robertson is out for any length of time, that does make things challenging. However, the team’s depth makes them built to deal with something like this for at least one round. The Avalanche have added lots of depth of their own, with the likes of Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle, and Jack Drury, but I think Dallas’ depth is still superior.
Stars’ Chances Come Down to This
Now, there are other keys we could hone in on, and there will be more preview-like content coming about the Stars before the puck drops on Saturday. There is Rantanen’s much-anticipated return to Colorado, Jake Oettinger and the goaltending battle with Mackenzie Blackwood, and how the defense looks if Heiskanen is out for the series. There’s also the battle of the top-sixes since both teams are littered with talent up front.
Yes, those things are all big deals, but regardless of how those things pan out, these three keys have to go right for the Stars to move on to the second round.
