The Toronto Maple Leafs are officially kicking off the Auston Matthews era with him taking over the captaincy this week, and with it, he becomes the next leader for the teams next run of young talent.
Some of those players have already started their NHL careers — like Nick Robertson and Matthew Knies — while others are still travelling through the pipeline salivating at the chance to be the next call-up for the big club.
Once again, at the 2024 NHL Draft, Brad Treliving and the Maple Leafs made some noise trading down from their first-round selection and eventually drafting Ben Danford 31st overall from the Oshawa Generals of the OHL. They focused on stocking up on draft capital which they’ve lacked in recent years.
While the team has recently seen some of its scouting staff jump ship and join the Pittsburgh Penguins — most notably Wes Clark — the future is bright for the Maple Leafs with some quality prospects in the next wave of young talent.
Defining a Prospect
For this particular project, prospects will qualify as players drafted or acquired by the Maple Leafs who are under the age of 25 and have yet to play a full NHL season. These players are playing or have played in other professional leagues or still qualify to play junior or in the NCAA.
Related: Maple Leafs’ Easton Cowan Set on Making NHL Roster
As for goaltenders, if they’ve played 50 NHL games and are under the age of 25, they will qualify for this list. That means that while Dennis Hildeby remains a prospect by these standards, Joseph Woll has officially made the jump to an NHL full-timer.
Pyramid Tiers
For those that haven’t seen the prospect pyramid before, it’s a way to evaluate a team’s prospect pool based on tiers rather than a one-by-one ranking system. Differing opinions will result in a number of different lists if it came down to a top-20 list, while a pyramid allows for more of a focus on where prospects’ ceilings might be based on overall talent.
The tiers, will help project whether a player is of NHL calibre as a top-end talent or whether they will spend their career as a career call-up. With that, here’s how it breaks down.
Tier 1 — Elite or top-line, top-pair talent
Tier 2 — Top-six forward, top-four defender, starting goaltender
Tier 3 — Third-line forward, bottom-pair defender, backup goaltender
Tier 4 — Role players, bottom-line forward, depth defenceman or forward
Tier 5 — Minor league player used for call-ups
Tier 1
Elite or Top-Line, Top-Pair Talent
It’s safe to say the Maple Leafs still don’t have a prospect of this calibre. It’s been a while since Auston Matthews was the team’s top prospect and, well, he made the jump to the NHL right away. Since then, the Maple Leafs have had just five first-round picks and only three of them are still within the organization.
While there is some excitement around players like Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten and what they will add to the Maple Leafs’ lineup when they do make the jump, they still don’t slot into this top-tier of player. Let’s face it, it’s not every day that a player of this level comes around and the Maple Leafs haven’t seen one since 2016.
Tier 2
Top-6 Forward, Top-4 Defender, Starting Goaltender
Last season, we had Matthew Knies in this category. However, he’s made the jump to the big club and should continue to grow into a true top-six forward. In this case, both Cowan and Minten should find themselves in the second tier of this pyramid.
Cowan’s proved himself in the OHL and should see another boost in his production this season if he lands back with the London Knights. That said, the 19-year-old would fair better with some development time in the AHL if that was possible. He’s coming off a season with 96 points in 54 games for the Knights and was the MVP of the league.
His speed and skill set will make him a major asset when he does make the jump to the NHL and while he might not be that star first-line scorer, his intangibles will make him a legitimate role player in the top-six.
Artur Akhtyamov is another name that has climbed the ranks in the Maple Leafs pipeline. A fourth-round pick back in 2020, Akhtyamov has taken his time coming over to North America, but has benefitted from his path. His last two seasons, he’s posted goals against averages of 2.51 (2023-24 in KHL), 2.00 (2023-24 in VHL) and 1.74 respectively. His save percentage hasn’t fallen under .921 over that span and he made the jump to the KHL in 2023-24 with Kazan Ak-Bars.
Assuming his play can translate well to the North American game and Akhtyamov might be one of the better homegrown goalies for the Maple Leafs in recent memory.
This tier also includes Fraser Minten, Ben Danford, Topi Niemelä and Dennis Hildeby.
Tier 3
Third-Line Forward, Bottom-Pair Defender, Backup Goaltender
This is where the majority of the Maple Leafs’ pipeline sits — in the mid-range prospect level. Good enough to crack the lineup at some point and maybe even have a legitimate role late in a season or on a playoff run, but it’ll come in that depth position.
If the main roster sees an injury to a key player, this is where the Maple Leafs are going to find a fill-in — outside of the possibility that they make a trade to create a band-aid fix.
Alex Steeves is a player who has likely landed in this mid-range tier. He’s had a few short opportunities with the big club, but still awaits that long-lasting shot to make an impression. He had his best season in the AHL with the Toronto Marlies last season with 27 goals and 57 points in 65 games. With the Maple Leafs, he has one assist in seven games in the NHL — however, consistency and ice-time play a part in not getting comfortable at that level.
Some believe that he has a legitimate shot to grab an extended opportunity with the Maple Leafs this season, but that likely still won’t come without one of the regulars suffering an injury — which wouldn’t be a positive note for this club.
Nikita Grebyonkin is another player that lands in between tiers two and three, as his game hasn’t had an opportunity to transition to North America just yet. That said, he finished with 41 points in 67 regular season games for Metallurg Magnitogorsk in his first full KHL season at 20 years old — which does make for a hopeful front office when it comes to Grebyonkin’s future.
This tier also includes Nick Abruzzese, Roni Hirvonen, Ryan Tverberg, Ty Voit, Cade Webber and Vyacheslav Peksa.
Tier 4
Role Players, Bottom-Line Forward, Depth Defenceman or Forward
A recent returnee to the Maple Leafs’ system, Nicolas Mattinen heads this tier as questions remain when it comes to how his game with transition back to North America. During his OHL career, he was a highly productive offensive defenceman. He went on to play at the University of Ottawa and then with the Laval Rocket of the AHL — never really catching the same streak of offence.
Two years overseas, including 46 points in 52 games with the Straubing Tigers of the DEL and he’s back in the system looking for a chance to get some NHL time. That, however, has also landed him in this tier as a possible depth defenceman which could change as the season progresses.
Related: What Can Maple Leafs Fans Expect From Nikita Grebenkin?
Nicholas Moldenhauer and Noah Chadwick are two other players that come to mind that slot into this tier of the the pipeline. Neither one has made that next push to progress in their development on the road to the NHL. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, it just means there are others in front of them on the ladder up to the big leagues.
Moldenhauer could easily be a third tier guy and even jump into that second tier depending on how his second season goes with the University of Michigan. After a 75-point campaign with the Chicago Steel, his 21 points in 41 games at Michigan looked like a bit of a step back for some. Still, he’s got a shot to climb that ladder a bit faster than some may give him credit for.
This tier also includes Sam McCue, William Villeneuve, Victor Johansson and Timofei Obvintsev.
Tier 5
Minor-League Players Use for Call-Ups
Minor moves, add-ons, call them what you want, but this is the class of prospects that might get their cup of coffee in the NHL at some point down the road and it might not necessarily be with the Maple Leafs. Let’s note too, that just because they’re in tier five right now, doesn’t mean they can rise above that title.
This year’s draft class could boost their value as well as former picks of the team, but these players will likely be one to two game fill-ins when needed throughout the next season or two.
Joe Miller is a player that falls into this category. Drafted in the sixth round in 2020, he’s had some decent seasons at Harvard in the NCAA, including 27 points in 32 games in 2023-24. But there are players that have jumped him on the team’s depth chart.
Hudson Malinoski is another player that has a few more question marks around his game and how far he’ll be able to develop his skills. That said, he’s also a player that could be a pleasant surprise for this team and might be one of those hidden gems within the organization if he can put it all together.
Remember, just because they start the year in this tier doesn’t necessarily mean that they are stuck there for good. It’s a starting point.
This tier also includes Miroslav Holinka, Jacob Quillan, Braeden Kressler, Wyatt Schingoethe, Vladislav Kara, Kirill Slepets, Mike Koster and Nathan Mayes.
While it’s not a perfect system for breaking down one-by-one the Maple Leafs’ prospects, this does provide you with a quick look into where the team’s future stands when it comes to their overall pipeline of draft picks and prospects.
Some of these names could be with the big club sooner than later, it’s get familiarized with them. Outside of that, where would you rank your favourite Maple Leafs’ prospect? Agree or disagree, let us know what your thoughts are.