What Could a Trade for Lightning Winger Nikita Kucherov Look Like?

The Tampa Bay Lightning find themselves out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs early for the fourth season in a row. The three straight runs to the Final and back-to-back Cup wins only move further into the rearview mirror.

It’s understandably led to some major frustrations. It’s also leading to drastic discussion points. Earlier this month, NHL insider Pierre LeBrun tackled the idea of the Lightning trading Nikita Kucherov.

He doesn’t think that it’s likely, and actually thinks the goal is to extend him. However, given the upcoming market this offseason, there is a chance for Julien BriseBois to make some big swings (‘Four straight years, 4 first-round playoff exits. What’s next for the Lightning?, The Athletic, May 4, 2026).

Even though this story is from a week and a half ago, I can’t help but keep circling back to it in my head. If they made the trade, what would it even look like?

Think about the types of overpays that happen at most trade deadlines. A team may flip a prospect and a first-round pick just to add depth to the middle six.

Here, I’ll take on the daunting task of determining a general idea of what trading Kucherov will look like. We’ll look at some notable blockbuster trades, including one made by the Lightning, to establish a precedent. To take it a step further, we’ll discuss the pros and cons at the end.

What Could a Trade Look Like?

To build this potential trade, let’s look at some notable moves to get an idea. These all involve established players in the NHL who ended up being traded for one reason or another.

First, we’ll look at the (second) Mikko Rantanen trade from last season. To acquire the services of an established player with back-to-back 100-point seasons, the Dallas Stars forked over center Logan Stankoven, two first-round picks and two third-round picks. Stankoven is still young, but he wasn’t a total wild card when he was acquired. He was establishing himself as an everyday player in Dallas and is still one in Carolina.

The next one being presented is Jack Eichel. Despite the messy situation, the Vegas Golden Knights still had to trade Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, a 2022 1st-round pick and a 2023 2nd-round pick to get him to the desert.

To really flesh this out, we’ll look at a trade that the Lightning made during the 2013-14 season, trading future Hockey Hall of Famer Martin St. Louis to the New York Rangers. Since Kucherov is a future Hall of Famer who also won a Hart Trophy, it makes sense to add someone with that resume into the mix.

In order to get St. Louis, the Rangers had to deal Ryan Callahan, a 2014 2nd-round pick and a 2015 1st-round pick (conditional). It’s a slightly smaller deal compared to the others, but St. Louis was also older than Rantanen or Eichel. Like the latter, the trade of St. Louis was similar to a divorce following the 2014 Olympics. Still, the Lightning got assets. A Kucherov deal that has no chaos behind it should lead to some kind of haul.

All of these deals have something in common: There is at least one first-round pick among multiple draft picks, and one everyday player was included in the deal.

Kucherov is much younger than St. Louis was at the time of being traded. He is about to be 33 while St. Louis was 38. At the same time, he’s a bit older than Eichel and Rantanen were at the time of being traded (mid- to late-20s). Whoever gets Kucherov will get fewer seasons out of him, even if he’s a higher-caliber player than either of the two.

Conclusion: An educated guess is that a haul for Kucherov would bring in one everyday player, two first-round picks and an additional draft pick, likely an upcoming second-round pick.

Pros and Cons of Greenlighting a Kucherov Trade

An upside would be that the Lightning would set themselves up for the future. They’ve dealt a large number of draft picks over the last few seasons. This would give them a chance to get some young blood into the system to go along with some of the promising prospects.

Drafting Isaac Howard didn’t go too well, but it still landed them a promising prospect in Sam O’Reilly. This is a team known for its eye for talent and its ability to develop it. Putting that effort into a top prospect could do wonders.

It may cost them a season or two of contention, but it could mean a longer window with a younger, stronger core. They would also be cheaper, allowing the Lightning to better utilize the increasing salary cap to acquire more veteran talent to deepen the roster.

A downside is that replacing Kucherov is easier said than done. He’s the key cog in the machine. Take him out, and it could be a long road to restructuring an effective offense without him. Sure, we’ve already seen what that looks like in the postseason, but what about the regular season? It probably wouldn’t be pretty for a bit. It’s a huge risk, and it’s one the Lightning likely wouldn’t want to see what that reality looks like.

Final Thoughts

There are two ways trading Kucherov is worth it: If the Lightning are willing to sacrifice a season or two and truly retool, or if he wants to test the market. Should he want to test the market, getting anything out of him, especially after they lost Steven Stamkos to free agency, might actually be the right call.

Otherwise, it’s a more complicated answer. Even with all the talent on this team, it’s clear that it’s going to be very difficult to trade him and remain an immediate contender.

Moving a star isn’t without precedent for this team. They traded St. Louis, as looked at earlier, as they were in the middle of a playoff push. They also traded goalie Ben Bishop not long after they were in the Stanley Cup Final.

But those moves were made knowing they had options who were ready and waiting. When St. Louis was traded, Kucherov, along with Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, were all about to establish themselves. Andrei Vasilevskiy took over for Bishop. Regardless of the reasoning, and the St. Louis one was messy, a trade was still made when it could have been seen as untimely.

If they think O’Reilly and Benjamin Rautiainen are ready to jump in and be the next stars on the team, then they could be ready to do it. They look promising after their latest seasons. But to replace a Hart Trophy finalist? That’s a massive gamble. If it hits, it’s a brilliant chess move. If it doesn’t, the window may take a long time to reopen.