A lot of people publish mock drafts. Not many revisit their results.
Reason being, most mocks prove wildly inaccurate, especially those that attempt to predict all seven rounds and 211 draft picks.
I went to those lengths — not once, but twice — ahead of this year’s NHL Entry Draft, and now I’ve taken the time to review and compile my results. Both for my updated mock published on June 23, the eve of the draft, and for my original mock published on June 13.
(2016 Mock Draft Revisited: Pick-By-Pick Results)
Updated Mock
I’m a big fan of Clayton Keller and Tyson Jost, but I thought being undersized might drop them out of the top 10. I had Keller going 11th and Jost next at 12th, but Keller was selected seventh and Jost went 10th.
Top 10 = 8/10, had Logan Brown and Jake Bean instead of Clayton Keller and Tyson Jost
Top 20 = 18/20, also had Max Jones and Julien Gauthier instead of Logan Stanley and Dennis Cholowski
Top 30 = 26/30, had Alex DeBrincat, Samuel Girard, Rasmus Asplund and Tyler Benson instead of Henrik Borgstrom, Tage Thompson, Trent Frederic and Sam Steel
Top 61 = 54/61, had Adam Fox, Markus Niemelainen, Will Bitten, Vitaly Abramov, Cam Dineen, Sean Day and Cliff Pu instead of Egor Korshkov, Andrew Peeke, Janne Kuokkanen, Tyler Parsons, Evan Fitzpatrick, Dylan Gambrell and Kasper Bjorkqvist
Top 100 = 83/100, had Conner Bleackley, Mitchell Mattson, Aepeli Rasanen, Tim Gettinger, Noah Gregor, Jacob Moverare, Mikhail Maltsev, David Quenneville, Dmitry Sokolov, Mikhail Berdin, William Knierim, Colton Point, Zach Sawchenko, Otto Makinen, Simon Stransky, Dylan Wells and Igor Svyrev instead of J.D. Greenway, Hudson Elynuik, Jack LaFontaine, Brandon Gignac, Carsen Twarynski, Wouter Peeters, Matthew Cairns, Casey Fitzgerald, Garrett Pilon, Connor Ingram, Linus Nassen, Fredrik Karlstrom, Filip Berglund, Adam Brooks, Jonathan Ang, Tarmo Reunanen and Brett Murray
I still can’t believe so many of these guys went undrafted, especially Zach Sawchenko who I had going in the fourth round as my eighth-ranked goaltender.
Total 211 = 153/211 (missed 58), had William Knierim, Zach Sawchenko, Otto Makinen, Simon Stransky, Igor Svyrev, Vladimir Kuznetsov, Alex Limoges, Jacob Neveu, Daniel Kurovsky, Colton Bobyk, Veini Vehvilainen, Linus Weissbach, Griffin Luce, Maxime Fortier, Alan Lyszczarczyk, Ben Gleason, Alexander Polunin, Andrei Svetlakov, Stephen Dhillon, Ivan Kosorenkov, Ondrej Najman, Kody McDonald, Mitch Eliot, William Pethrus, Daniil Miromanov, Tomas Soustal, Brayden Burke, Gabriel Sylvestre, Matthew Boucher, Pius Suter, Hayden Verbeek, Kristian Reichel, Daniel Marmenlind, Leevi Laakso, Patrick Bajkov, Artur Lauta, Joseph Raaymakers, Reid Gardiner, Vladislav Sukhachyov, Ondrej Kachyna, Ondrej Vala, Jamie Armstrong, Brennan Menell, Antti Kalapudas, Kenny Johnson, Jake Kielly, Kyle Maksimovich, Maxim Lazarev, Jeff De Wit, Jesper Mattila, Evan Sarthou, Brinson Pasichnuk, Keenan Suthers, Tim Wahlgren, Justin Brazeau, Lukas Doudera, Dawson Davidson and Sebastian Aho instead of Jack LaFontaine, Carsen Twarynski, Wouter Peeters, Linus Nassen, Fredrik Karlstrom, Evan Cormier, Alfons Malmstrom, Hardy Haman Aktell, Nathan Noel, Alex Dostie, Rhett Gardner, Damien Riat, Ryan Jones, Vladimir Bobylev, Casey Staum, Philip Nyberg, Adam Werner, Egor Rykov, Jeremy Helvig, Cameron Clarke, Patrick Harper, Linus Hogberg, Mikey Eyssimont, Christopher Paquette, Manuel Wiederer, Niclas Almari, Peter Thome, Patrick Kudla, Brandon Hagel, Michael Pezzetta, Nathan Clurman, Noah Carroll, Filip Larsson, Konstantin Volkov, Gabriel Fontaine, Blake Hillman, Tyler Wall, Maxim Mamin, Jakob Stenqvist, Chase Priskie, Mark Shoemaker, Nikolai Chebykin, Vincent Desharnais, Rodrigo Abols, Arvid Henrikson, Dean Stewart, Austin Osmanski, Vasily Glotov, Jeremy Davies, Brett McKenzie, Benjamin Finkelstein, Mattias Elfstrom, Adam Smith, Jacob Friend, Dmitry Zaitsev, Ryan Lohin, Joachim Blichfeld and Filip Helt
I would never have envisioned Carsen Twarynski going as high as he did, 82nd overall to the Philadelphia Flyers in the third round. Twarynski can play both forward and defence so that versatility obviously boosted his draft stock.
Total 326 with HMs = 171/326 (missed 40 overall), had Jack LaFontaine, Carsen Twarynski, Wouter Peeters, Evan Cormier, Nathan Noel, Vladimir Bobylev, Jeremy Helvig, Mikey Eyssimont, Christopher Paquette, Manuel Wiederer, Brandon Hagel, Michael Pezzetta, Chase Priskie, Nikolai Chebykin, Rodrigo Abols, Austin Osmanski, Jeremy Davies and Joachim Blichfeld among 115 honourable mentions. Linus Nassen, Fredrik Karlstrom, Alfons Malmstrom, Hardy Haman Aktell, Alex Dostie, Rhett Gardner, Damien Riat, Ryan Jones, Casey Staum, Philip Nyberg, Adam Werner, Egor Rykov, Cameron Clarke, Patrick Harper, Linus Hogberg, Niclas Almari, Peter Thome, Patrick Kudla, Nathan Clurman, Noah Carroll, Filip Larsson, Konstantin Volkov, Gabriel Fontaine, Blake Hillman, Tyler Wall, Maxim Mamin, Jakob Stenqvist, Mark Shoemaker, Vincent Desharnais, Arvid Henrikson, Dean Stewart, Vasily Glotov, Brett McKenzie, Benjamin Finkelstein, Mattias Elfstrom, Adam Smith, Jacob Friend, Dmitry Zaitsev, Ryan Lohin and Filip Helt weren’t on my list.
Charlie McAvoy just seemed destined to be a Boston Bruin, especially considering he was already playing at Boston University. That was one of only four picks I got completely right.
Total Correct Picks = 4, Auston Matthews (TOR, 1), Patrik Laine (WPG, 2), Charlie McAvoy (BOS, 14), Luke Kunin (MIN, 15)
Total Right Player-Pick (Wrong Team due to Traded Pick) = 2, Filip Hronek (ARI-DET, 53), Anatoli Golyshev (CHI-NYI, 95)
Total Right Team-Player (Wrong Pick Number) = 7, Lucas Johansen (WSH, 26-28), Janne Kuokkanen (CAR, 67-43), Brandon Gignac (NJ, 102-80), Vojtech Budik (BUF 159-130), Nicolas Mattinen (TOR, 122-179), Jordy Stallard (WPG, 187-127), Jake Ryczek (CHI, 144-203)
Worth Noting
• I had Dante Fabbro and Jakob Chychrun back-to-back but backwards (Fabbro 16-Chychrun 17 in mock, Chychrun 16-Fabbro 17 in the draft, blame Detroit for trading down).
• I also had Luke Green and Frederic Allard back-to-back but backwards (Green 63-Allard 64 in mock, Allard 78-Green 79 in the draft).
• I had Jets taking two defencemen after Laine but got the wrong two (had Dennis Cholowski and Kale Clague, they took Logan Stanley and Luke Green).
• I had the Oilers taking their only goalie at 123 but got the wrong goalie (had Veini Vehvilainen, took Dylan Wells). I also had the Oilers taking a 6-foot-6 defenceman in the seventh round (had Braydyn Chizen, took Vincent Desharnais). On top of that, I had the Oilers taking a good-sized, Swedish over-age right-handed defenceman (had William Pethrus, took Filip Berglund), and I had Edmonton taking defencemen at 63 and 84 (had Luke Green and David Queeneville, took Markus Niemelainen and Matthew Cairns).
• I had the Kings taking a WHL defenceman with their first pick at 51 (had Libor Hajek, took Kale Clague). I also had the Kings taking two defencemen then a NCAA centre with their top three picks (had Hajek, Jacob Neveu and Nolan Stevens, took Clague, Jacob Moverare and Mikey Eyssimont).
• I did well in predicting the placement of players from the team that I cover on a daily basis — that being, the WHL’s Kelowna Rockets. I nailed Lucas Johansen to Washington in the first round, and had Calvin Thurkauf and Braydyn Chizen as seventh-rounders.
• I was one pick off on Thurkauf (had him 186 to Calgary, went 185 to Columbus).
• I was also one pick off on Collin Adams (had him 171 to Rangers, went 170 to Islanders).
• I had the Red Wings and Predators both taking European goalies in the sixth round (had Daniel Marmenlind-167 and Leevi Laakso-168 but took Filip Larsson-167 and Konstantin Volkov-168, had Detroit taking the wrong Swede there).
• I had the Leafs drafting a goalie to start the third round (had Tyler Parsons, took Joseph Woll).
• I also had the Rangers taking a goalie at 174 (had Joseph Raaymakers, took Tyler Wall).
• I had Tyler Soy going to a California team in the seventh round (had Los Angeles at 202, went to Anaheim at 205).
• I had Brinson Pasichnuk as a Wild seventh-round pick but Minnesota did invite him to development camp after Pasichnuk went undrafted.
• I had Dallas drafting Reid Gardiner instead of Rhett Gardner (close but not close enough).
• I had the Islanders drafting somebody with a last name ending in “ov” at 193 (had Oleg Sosunov, took Nick Pastujov — that probably doesn’t count for anything, so I’ll stop there).
Original Mock
I really thought Logan Brown’s size — as a 6-foot-6 centre — would have got him into the top 10, but instead Brown went 11th to the Ottawa Senators. That’s how close I came to nailing the top 10 in my original mock. Ironically, I had Clayton Keller going to Ottawa at 12th, but the Senators traded up one spot to select Brown.
Top 10 = 9/10, had Logan Brown instead of Clayton Keller
Top 20 = 17/20, had Tyler Benson, Julien Gauthier and Riley Tufte instead of Luke Kunin, Logan Stanley and Dennis Cholowski
Top 30 = 24/30, had Tyler Benson, Kale Clague, Alex DeBrincat, Vitaly Abramov, Pascal Laberge and Samuel Girard instead of Dennis Cholowski, Henrik Borgstrom, Brett Howden, Lucas Johansen, Trent Frederic and Sam Steel
Top 61 = 50/61, had Vitaly Abramov, Sean Day, Adam Fox, Frederic Allard, Will Bitten, Dmitry Sokolov, Cam Dineen, Aapeli Rasanen, Conner Bleackley, Markus Niemelainen and Cliff Pu instead of Henrik Borgstrom, Trent Frederic, Egor Korshkov, Andrew Peeke, Givani Smith, Artur Kayumov, Wade Allison, Filip Hronek, Tyler Parsons, Dylan Gambrell and Kasper Bjorkqvist
It was shocking to me that Dmitry Sokolov fell as far as he did, to the Minnesota Wild in the seventh round (196th overall). Sokolov was a potential top-10 pick at the start of his draft year and I had him going to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round (44th overall) in my original mock and in the third round (88th overall) in my updated mock. I certainly didn’t see Sokolov falling out of the top 100.
Top 100 = 75/100, had Dmitry Sokolov, Aapeli Rasanen, Conner Bleackley, Ty Ronning, Lucas Carlsson, Tanner Kaspick, Mitchell Mattson, Stepan Falkovsky, Tim Gettinger, Alexander Polunin, Matthew Phillips, Noah Gregor, Jacob Moverare, David Queeneville, Simon Stransky, Max Lajoie, Mikhail Berdin, William Knierim, Vladimir Kuznetsov, Zach Sawchenko, Otto Makinen, Brayden Burke, Eetu Tuulola, Dylan Wells and Otto Somppi instead of Trent Frederic, Kasper Bjorkqvist, Joseph Woll, William Lockwood, Matt Filipe, Josh Anderson, Hudson Elynuik, Jack LaFontaine, Rem Pitlick, Connor Hall, Brandon Gignac, Carsen Twarynski, Wouter Peeters, Matthew Cairns, Josh Mahura, Casey Fitzgerald, Garrett Pilon, Connor Ingram, Linus Nassen, Fredrik Karlstrom, Jonathan Ang, Anatoli Golyshev, Jacob Cederholm, Tarmo Reunanen and Brett Murray
Total 211 = 153/211 (missed 58), had Alexander Polunin, Simon Stransky, William Knierim, Vladimir Kuznetsov, Zach Sawchenko, Otto Makinen, Brayden Burke, Andrei Svetlakov, Jacob Neveu, Tomas Soustal, Daniel Kurovsky, Igor Svyrev, Colton Bobyk, Stephen Dhillon, Linus Weissbach, Griffin Luce, Maxime Fortier, Alan Lyszczarczyk, Gabriel Sylvestre, Ben Gleason, Kyle Maksimovich, Reid Gardiner, Ivan Kosorenkov, Brennan Menell, Ondrej Kachyna, Veini Vehvilainen, Daniil Miromanov, Sebastian Aho, Matthew Boucher, Pius Suter, Hayden Verbeek, Kristian Reichel, Daniel Marmenlind, Leevi Laakso, Jeff De Wit, Kevin Klima, Josh Dickinson, Egor Babenko, Mitch Eliot, Joseph Raaymakers, Brogan O’Brien, Egor Zaitsev, Antti Kalapudas, Reid Duke, Ondrej Najman, Kenny Johnson, Ondrej Vala, Maxim Lazarev, Michael Graham, Jesper Mattila, Keenan Suthers, Artur Lauta, Brinson Pasichnuk, Lukas Doudera, Vladislav Sukhachyov, Samuel Laberge, Dawson Davidson and Jake Kryski instead of Jack LaFontaine, Wouter Peeters, Linus Nassen, Fredrik Karlstrom, Evan Cormier, Brandon Duhaime, Alfons Malmstrom, Hardy Haman Aktell, Alex Dostie, Rhett Gardner, Damien Riat, Ryan Jones, Casey Staum, Colton Point, Philip Nyberg, Adam Werner, Egor Rykov, Jeremy Helvig, Cameron Clarke, Patrick Harper, Linus Hogberg, Mikey Eyssimont, Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Christopher Paquette, Niclas Almari, Peter Thome, Patrick Kudla, Michael Pezzetta, Nathan Clurman, Noah Carroll, Filip Larsson, Konstantin Volkov, Gabriel Fontaine, Blake Hillman, Tyler Wall, Maxim Mamin, Jakob Stenqvist, Chase Priskie, Mark Shoemaker, Nikolai Chebykin, Vincent Desharnais, Rodrigo Abols, Arvid Henrikson, Dean Stewart, Austin Osmanski, Vasily Glotov, Jeremy Davies, Brett McKenzie, Benjamin Finkelstein, Mattias Elfstrom, Adam Smith, Jacob Friend, Braydyn Chizen, Dmitry Zaitsev, Ryan Lohin, Nikolaj Krag Christensen, Joachim Blichfeld and Filip Helt
Total 326 with HMs = 171/326 (missed 40 overall), had Jack LaFontaine, Wouter Peeters, Evan Cormier, Brandon Duhaime, Colton Point, Jeremy Helvig, Mikey Eyssimont, Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Christopher Paquette, Michael Pezzetta, Chase Priskie, Nikolai Chebykin, Rodrigo Abols, Austin Osmanski, Jeremy Davies, Braydyn Chizen, Nikolaj Krag Christensen and Joachim Blichfeld among 115 honourable mentions. Linus Nassen, Fredrik Karlstrom, Alfons Malmstrom, Hardy Haman Aktell, Alex Dostie, Rhett Gardner, Damien Riat, Ryan Jones, Casey Staum, Philip Nyberg, Adam Werner, Egor Rykov, Cameron Clarke, Patrick Harper, Linus Hogberg, Niclas Almari, Peter Thome, Patrick Kudla, Nathan Clurman, Noah Carroll, Filip Larsson, Konstantin Volkov, Gabriel Fontaine, Blake Hillman, Tyler Wall, Maxim Mamin, Jakob Stenqvist, Mark Shoemaker, Vincent Desharnais, Arvid Henrikson, Dean Stewart, Vasily Glotov, Brett McKenzie, Benjamin Finkelstein, Mattias Elfstrom, Adam Smith, Jacob Friend, Dmitry Zaitsev, Ryan Lohin and Filip Helt weren’t on my list.
http://gty.im/543010602
Total Correct Picks = 4, Auston Matthews (TOR, 1), Patrik Laine (WPG, 2), Charlie McAvoy (BOS, 14), Janne Kuokkanen (CAR, 43)
Total Right Team-Player = 4, Tage Thompson (STL, 28-26), Joey Anderson (NJ, 77-73), Jack Kopacka (ANA, 76-93), Nicolas Mattinen (TOR, 122-179)
Worth Noting
• I had Tyson Jost and Mikhail Sergachev going 9-10 to Montreal and Colorado but backwards (Sergachev went 9 and Jost at 10).
• I had Connor Hall and Rem Pitlick going back-to-back but also backwards (had Hall 140 and Pitlick 141, but Pitlick went 76 and Hall at 77).
• I had Filip Berglund going to an Alberta team (had Calgary at 96 but went to Edmonton at 91).
• I had a Russian defenceman with the surname of Zaitsev getting drafted, but had Yegor instead of Dmitriy.
• I was one pick off on Jake Ryczek (had him 202 to Los Angeles, went 203 to Chicago). Ironically, in my updated mock, I had Ryczek to the right team but had the Blackhawks reaching for him at 144.