2020 NHL Draft: Top 10 Mock Scenarios 6.0

In this series, I’ve been running the Tankathon simulator for the draft lottery on a daily basis and mocking the results for the top 10 leading up to the 2020 NHL draft — or until the actual lottery takes place to determine the official draft order.

There are more than 30 different scenarios within the top-three picks, so this should provide plenty of entertainment for 30-plus days — for at least a month, if not longer, while awaiting the NHL’s plan going forward.

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The debut edition elaborated on all the details for this series and provided analysis for each pick. That analysis will continue for every new selection while linking repetitive picks back to their original mock for reference. I’ll try to keep it as fresh as possible and mix in the occasional surprise — along with additional insight — but might also shorten the analysis at times to ensure these mocks are published daily.

Without further ado, let’s reveal the results from my sixth attempt at the Tankathon simulator, which produced this order for the top 10.

1) Arizona Coyotes (top-three protected)

2) Detroit Red Wings

3) Anaheim Ducks

4) Ottawa Senators

5) Ottawa Senators (San Jose)

6) Los Angeles Kings

7) New Jersey Devils

8) Buffalo Sabres

9) Montreal Canadiens

10) Chicago Blackhawks

Mock 6.0: The Picks

1) Arizona Coyotes (top-three protected) — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Arizona wins the lottery in an ironic twist, having traded this pick to New Jersey as part of the package for Taylor Hall but not without lottery protection. Hall didn’t have a huge impact for the Coyotes — they trended down in the standings after acquiring him, thus hardly putting them over the top — and now may be walking away through free agency after such a short stay. However, bidding farewell to Hall without a playoff berth — if that plays out — would be forgiven (and quickly forgotten) by winning the Lafreniere sweepstakes. This scenario could be a job-saver for John Chayka and a massive boon for the Arizona market. The Hall era — brief as it may be — would give way to the Lafreniere era, with Lafreniere immediately taking Hall’s place on the top line as a fellow first overall pick with the potential to make a bigger impact as early as next season. He will contend for the Calder and, in time, Lafreniere would lead the Coyotes back to the playoffs as their franchise player going forward. And, who knows, winning the lottery might convince Hall to stick around Arizona and form a one-two punch on left wing with Lafreniere, which would be bad news for the rest of the Pacific Division in the years to come.

2) Detroit Red Wings — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

ANALYSIS: Detroit wouldn’t endure significant disappointment with that lottery result, considering the consolation prize could be Byfield. For those following this series, you’ll know by now that I strongly suspect the Red Wings would take Tim Stutzle over Byfield — and did so, at second overall, in mock 3.0, which drew the ire of Detroit’s fan base, so now they are getting their wish in this scenario with Byfield. This is a first — a new selection for Detroit, having previously selected Lafreniere twice, Stutzle twice and Lucas Raymond once — but I don’t believe Byfield is a lock to go second. He is still the betting favourite, but I feel those odds are closer to 60-40 and no greater than 70-30 as of today — meaning three or four of the teams within the top 10 would take somebody other than Byfield at No. 2. Detroit could be one of those teams, in my opinion — with Stutzle being their target. That said, it is difficult to make a case against Detroit taking Byfield, who would be a high-octane driver in the Motor City. But if we’ve learned anything over the years, never say never and expect the unexpected when it comes to the NHL draft — as evidenced by the Red Wings reaching for Moritz Seider at sixth overall last year. Passing on Byfield for Stutzle would be less of a stretch — less of a surprise.

3) Anaheim Ducks — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

ANALYSIS: Anaheim is another lottery winner — moving up for the first time, from fifth to third, and shaking it up by also making a new selection in Drysdale, who would drastically bolster a Ducks’ defence that has been depleted in recent years and doesn’t have much in the way of high-end prospects. Gone are Brandon Montour, Sami Vatanen and Marcus Pettersson, who helped form one of the league’s best blue lines. Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson remain in the fold, while Jacob Larsson, Josh Mahura and Brendan Guhle are emerging as NHL regulars. Christian Djoos could also earn a role in Anaheim, but the pipeline is lacking beyond that group with Jackson LaCombe and Axel Andersson being the next-best prospects as second-round picks. Drysdale has the potential to be better than all of them — yes, all of those aforementioned defenders — with elite upside that has garnered favourable comparisons to Drew Doughty. The Ducks know how hard Doughty is to play against, so they would love to have that type of competitor on their side in Drysdale.

4) Ottawa Senators — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa loses the lottery for the fourth time in six scenarios — also falling from second and third to fourth and fifth in mock 1.0, mock 3.0 and mock 5.0. As a result, the Senators are selecting Raymond for a third time — previously taking him in mock 1.0, at fifth overall, and mock 5.0, at this same spot. The more I think about it, the more I’m starting to think that Ottawa could have Raymond in their top three. Lafreniere, Byfield, Raymond? Or maybe Raymond is even ahead of Byfield for the Senators? I might be overthinking it — to be sensing the Sens could take Raymond over Byfield as high as second overall — but as much as I believe Stutzle could be a target for Detroit, I’m now feeling the same about Raymond for Ottawa. Why? The Frolunda connection first and foremost, with that Swedish club producing two of Ottawa’s franchise players in Erik Karlsson and Daniel Alfredsson. Raymond could become the third. You heard it here first.

5) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa makes a new selection here — also listening to their fan base, which voiced displeasure and disapproval for passing on Stutzle in mock 1.0 when he slid to Buffalo at seventh and again in mock 5.0 when he fell all the way to Chicago at ninth. In between, Stutzle went third twice and second once, with a top-five selection now sounding likely — his stock has been rising since the World Juniors, or skyrocketing according to some sources. Stutzle is a terrific talent and he doesn’t get past Ottawa this time, with the Senators thrilled by the prospect of pairing him with Raymond. Despite losing the lottery, Ottawa could still be among the biggest winners from this draft thanks to that dynamic duo.

6) Los Angeles Kings — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

ANALYSIS: Los Angeles continues the trend of new selections, with five of the first six picks in this scenario being fresh faces for those teams — Lafreniere to Arizona, Byfield to Detroit, Drysdale to Anaheim, Stutzle to Ottawa and now Perfetti to Los Angeles. The Kings draft well out of the OHL — and draft often out of the OHL — with their top prospects including Gabriel Vilardi, Arthur Kaliyev and Akil Thomas. Perfetti would fit right in with that group — just imagine a line featuring Perfetti and Kaliyev, assuming one of them could play their off wing. Good luck stopping them, even on separate lines. L.A. is going to have a lot of firepower in the near future and Perfetti could certainly add to that as one of this draft’s best finishers. The Kings would be all the more potent with him in the fold.

7) New Jersey Devils — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

ANALYSIS: New Jersey is the other loser in this scenario, losing out on a second top-10 pick with Arizona winning the lottery — thus deferring to a 2021 first-round pick as compensation for Hall based on the conditions of that trade. This would have been the ideal year to have two picks in the top 10 and if Arizona makes the playoffs next season, that pick could be much lower than it would have been in 2020. Regardless, the Devils still have a top-10 selection here at seventh overall and use it on a familiar face in Rossi — familiar in that New Jersey already has four prospects on the same junior team as Rossi but also familiar as a repeat pick from mock 2.0 (sixth), mock 4.0 (seventh) and mock 5.0 (eighth). This is the fourth time in six scenarios that New Jersey has selected Rossi — tying for the most times with Drysdale to Los Angeles (mock 1.0, mock 3.0, mock 4.0 and mock 5.0). Rossi to the Devils is a very real possibility.

8) Buffalo Sabres — Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)

ANALYSIS: Buffalo takes Lundell for a second time, having previously taken him at this same spot in mock 3.0. That analysis holds true here, with the Sabres liking Lundell’s size and two-way prowess as well as his Finnish connections with Henri Jokiharju and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen from winning gold together at the 2019 World Juniors. Buffalo may also see more offensive upside in Lundell than some scouts are giving him credit for amongst this stacked top 10.

9) Montreal Canadiens — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

ANALYSIS: Montreal makes a new selection in Holtz — bringing that total to six of nine in this scenario. The Canadiens take Holtz for the same reason they had twice taken Perfetti at this spot (mock 1.0 and mock 4.0) — that being, to add another sniper up front as a complement to Cole Caufield in the years to come. Montreal has also twice taken Lundell (mock 2.0 and mock 5.0), including ahead of Holtz at this spot in mock 2.0. But with Perfetti and Lundell unavailable here, Holtz makes the most sense for the Habs. He is a poor man’s Patrik Laine and could be lethal on a line with Caufield and Nick Suzuki in the future.

10) Chicago Blackhawks — Jake Sanderson (LD, USA, NTDP U18)

ANALYSIS: Chicago takes Sanderson for a second time, having previously taken him at ninth overall in mock 4.0. Bumped down to 10th because of this lottery result, the Blackhawks are left to debate between Sanderson as a successor for Duncan Keith or Yaroslav Askarov as a successor for Corey Crawford. That is a difficult decision, having also taken Askarov at ninth overall in mock 1.0 — instead of Sanderson. This is the first repeat pick for Chicago, which took Holtz in mock 2.0, Perfetti in mock 3.0 and Stutzle in mock 5.0 — all at ninth overall. There is no real deciding factor between Sanderson and Askarov, so the Blackhawks go with the safer option in selecting a potential top-pairing defender knowing goaltenders are never a sure thing. Sanderson is destined for the University of North Dakota, which also developed Chicago captain Jonathan Toews, so the Blackhawks are confident he will be in good hands there.

Recapping Results for Mock 6.0