2020 NHL Draft: Top 10 Mock Scenarios No. 10

In this series, I’ve been running the Tankathon simulator for the draft lottery on a daily basis and mocking the results for the top 10 leading up to the 2020 NHL draft — or until the actual lottery takes place to determine the official draft order.

There are more than 30 different scenarios within the top-three picks, so this should provide plenty of entertainment for 30-plus days — for at least a month, if not longer, while awaiting the NHL’s plan going forward.

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The debut edition elaborated on all the details for this series and provided analysis for each pick. That analysis will continue for every new selection while linking repetitive picks back to their original mock for reference. I’ll try to keep it as fresh as possible and mix in the occasional surprise — along with additional insight — but might also shorten the analysis at times to ensure these mocks are published daily.

Without further ado, let’s reveal the results from my 10th attempt at the Tankathon simulator, which produced this order for the top 10.

1) Montreal Canadiens

2) Chicago Blackhawks

3) Ottawa Senators

4) Detroit Red Wings

5) Ottawa Senators (San Jose)

6) Los Angeles Kings

7) Anaheim Ducks

8) New Jersey Devils

9) Buffalo Sabres

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona)

Mock 10: The Picks

1) Montreal Canadiens — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Montreal wins the lottery for a second time to land the hometown hero in Lafreniere, who hails from Saint-Eustache just a half hour away. As mentioned in mock 3.0, this is the scenario that both the player and the league are likely dreaming of. It would have been that much more special for Lafreniere to be welcomed into the NHL on the stage at the Bell Centre — the Canadiens were slated to host this year’s draft before coronavirus cancelled that too — but getting to pull on the Habs’ sweater in any setting would be a dream come true for this phenomenal Francophone.

2) Chicago Blackhawks — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

ANALYSIS: Chicago finally joins the lottery winners — the last of these teams in the top 10 to move into the top three — and the Blackhawks would be one of the more interesting teams in this spot. Byfield is the betting favourite to go second overall — and has went here in nine of these 10 scenarios, with mock 3.0 being the lone exception — but the Blackhawks aren’t afraid to go against the so-called consensus or consolidated rankings. Just last year, Chicago took Kirby Dach over Bowen Byram at third overall, which wasn’t expected until the day of the draft and still raised some eyebrows when that decision was announced. With Byfield, the Blackhawks might deem him too similar to Dach and thus take a different type of centre in Tim Stutzle or Marco Rossi. Or Chicago could do the opposite of last year by taking the draft’s top defenceman in Jamie Drysdale, who many believe to be better than Byram. Even a long-shot like Swedish winger Lucas Raymond shouldn’t be ruled out as a reach to Chicago’s liking. However, all things considered, the potential to have Byfield and Dach centering Chicago’s top two lines for a decade beyond the Jonathan Toews era is just too good to be true — and way too good, on paper, to pass up for the Blackhawks.

3) Ottawa Senators — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa takes Stutzle for only the second time — previously taking Raymond over him in several scenarios — but I have been led to believe, in recent days, that the Senators will be coveting Stutzle if they miss out on Lafreniere and Byfield. In fact, that source suggested Stutzle and Byfield could be a toss-up for Ottawa, which would speak to how high the Sens are on Stutzle. This selection is a reflection of that new info — granted, it comes from a new source — but Stutzle is certainly worthy of cracking the top three, with his stock soaring since the World Juniors. Looking back, Ottawa took Stutzle fifth in mock 6.0 — after taking Raymond fourth — but passed on him twice in mock 1.0, for Rossi (fourth) and Raymond (fifth), as well as mock 5.0, for Raymond (fourth) and Alexander Holtz (fifth), with Stutzle falling to seventh and ninth in those respective scenarios. The Senators also took Raymond (third) over Stutzle (fourth) in mock 7.0, then took Drysdale (third) over Stutzle (seventh) in mock 8.0. Hindsight is 20/20 and I don’t regret those picks, but Ottawa is now taking Stutzle here.

4) Detroit Red Wings — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

ANALYSIS: Detroit loses the lottery — falling from first to fourth — and would be even more distraught over how that top three played out. The Red Wings, in any losing scenario, would be targeting Stutzle as a fellow German for last year’s top-10 pick Moritz Seider. But with Stutzle off the board here, Detroit has to go to Plan D in taking Raymond as a talented Swede who might be underrated heading into the draft due to a limited role as a pro this season. The Red Wings have always done well with their Swedes and previously took Raymond at this spot in mock 4.0 when the top three mirrored this scenario — much to Detroit’s chagrin.

5) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa comes back with Rossi — for a fourth time — in taking the draft’s top two European-born centres. Rossi and Stutzle may not be Lafreniere and Byfield as the best-case scenario (mock 4.0), but they would solidify the Senators down the middle, along with Josh Norris and Shane Pinto. That would give Ottawa enviable centre depth, rather suddenly — considering Logan Brown and Colin White are still in the picture too. Rossi may hail from Austria, but Ottawa has already been his home for the past two seasons and he has settled in nicely there — becoming the CHL’s leading scorer, averaging more than two points per game during his draft year. That familiarity was part of the reason for Ottawa previously taking Rossi in mock 1.0 (fourth), mock 3.0 (fifth) and mock 7.0 (fifth).

6) Los Angeles Kings — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

ANALYSIS: Los Angeles takes Drysdale for the sixth time, reclaiming the most common match in this series and confirming the second coming of Drew Doughty is fit to be a King. This is the selection that makes the most sense, providing Drysdale is available when L.A. is picking. Rob Blake has taken Drysdale as high as third overall in mock 1.0 and strongly considered him at second overall in mock 2.0, so there would be no hesitation here at sixth.

7) Anaheim Ducks — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

ANALYSIS: Anaheim has their choice of snipers again and takes Holtz for the fourth time — breaking a tie with Cole Perfetti as the Ducks’ most popular pick. Both are seen as future finishers for Trevor Zegras, with Holtz a tad more potent and fitting since fellow Swedes Rickard Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg can serve as mentors. That has been a deciding factor, going back to mock 1.0, mock 3.0 and mock 4.0.

8) New Jersey Devils — Jack Quinn (RW, Canada, Ottawa OHL)

ANALYSIS: New Jersey takes Quinn for the fifth time — tying his teammate Rossi for the Devils’ most common match — but this is the highest Quinn has gone, previously going 10th in four scenarios with New Jersey’s second selection. With Rossi unavailable here, the Devils make Quinn their first pick for the first time. Some will call this a reach, but Craig Button has Quinn ranked sixth in his latest list — ahead of Rossi at eighth. Quinn is rising as a 50-goal man out of the OHL and could go higher than many anticipate. New Jersey is an obvious landing spot, as explained in mock 1.0, mock 4.0, mock 7.0 and mock 8.0.

9) Buffalo Sabres — Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)

ANALYSIS: Buffalo takes Lundell for the third time, liking his two-way prowess and his Finnish connections from winning world junior gold with Henri Jokiharju and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. This would tie Lundell with Stutzle as the Sabres’ most popular pick, but Lundell is the more realistic target between the two — barring a lottery win. Buffalo is knocked down a couple spots in this scenario because of the lottery results, but Stutzle is still a stretch at seventh since many have him pegged for the top five — if not the top three — whereas Lundell is expected to go in this range. Lundell is being overlooked in a lot of mocks — frequently falling out of the top 10 — but he could emerge as a poor man’s Aleksander Barkov and carve out a top-five career from this draft class.

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona) — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

ANALYSIS: New Jersey closes out the top 10 with a new selection in Perfetti, who didn’t score as many goals as Quinn during their draft year in the OHL — Quinn netted 52 to Perfetti’s 37 — but is generally considered the better prospect with more potential as a pro. Perfetti has the higher ceiling between the two and thus is projected to be a higher pick, but the Devils are more familiar with Quinn and may see him as a safer selection with a higher floor. Quinn should become an effective middle-six winger who can consistently produce 25 goals and 50 points. Perfetti improved his playmaking skills this season — outpointing Quinn 111 to 89, thanks to 74 assists — and could flirt with point-per-game totals in his prime, being talented enough to flank Jack Hughes on New Jersey’s top line. Regardless of the debate over the order in which they were taken, the Devils come away with two scoring wingers for Hughes and Nico Hischier.

Recapping Results for Mock 10