2020 NHL Draft: First Round Mock Scenarios 1.1

Mocking the top 10 wasn’t enough — not for the readers and, frankly, not for me either.

As a draft junkie who mocks the full seven rounds every year, I wanted to go beyond the top 10 — and reader requests were more than enough incentive to expand this mock series to the top 31. So now I am mocking the entire first round, picking up where I left off by extending those first 10 mocks — using the same results for the top 10 from running the Tankathon simulator for the draft lottery.

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— The Hockey Writers (@TheHockeyWriter) March 17, 2020

With the uncertainty surrounding the remainder of the NHL season, I am basing the draft order on points percentage standings from 11-27 with the division leaders picking 28-31 and the Presidents’ Trophy frontrunner rounding out the first round. That decision was made to reflect a final four from the divisional format.

There are also a couple conditional draft picks that were dependent on teams making the playoffs, so those selections will revert back to the original teams for these mocks. Vancouver retains their pick that wound up with New Jersey via Tampa Bay from the J.T. Miller trade and Pittsburgh retains their pick that had been moved to Minnesota as part of the package for Jason Zucker. If there are no playoffs, the assumption is those selections will be deferred to 2021, but that is going to be a matter of debate since Vancouver and Pittsburgh would be in playoff positions according to this points percentage formula.

The debut for this series elaborated on more details and provided analysis for each pick. That analysis will continue for every new selection while linking repetitive picks back to their original mock for reference. I’ll try to keep it as fresh as possible and mix in some surprises — along with additional insight — but might also shorten the analysis at times to ensure these mocks are published weekly (or as frequently as possible).

Without further ado, here is a recap of the top 10 from mock 1.0 followed by selections 11-31 for mock 1.1:

1) Detroit Red Wings — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

2) New Jersey Devils — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

3) Los Angeles Kings — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

4) Ottawa Senators — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

5) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

6) Anaheim Ducks — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

7) Buffalo Sabres — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

8) Montreal Canadiens — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

9) Chicago Blackhawks — Yaroslav Askarov (G, Russia, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg VHL)

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona) — Jack Quinn (RW, Canada, Ottawa OHL)

11) Minnesota Wild — Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)

ANALYSIS: Minnesota has had success with Finnish forwards over the years and Mikko Koivu is now on his last legs, so Lundell is the perfect replacement for his presence in the lineup. There are similarities between Lundell and Koivu, mainly their two-way prowess and leadership intangibles. Lundell may not be the sexiest pick, but he’ll be very effective for the Wild.

12) Winnipeg Jets — Jake Sanderson (LD, USA, NTDP U18)

ANALYSIS: Winnipeg is working to rebuild their blue line and Sanderson would become another key piece to that puzzle. He would join Josh Morrissey and 2019 first-rounder Ville Heinola on the left side of the defence — turning that position into a strength, considering Sami Niku, Dylan Samberg, Logan Stanley, Declan Chisholm and Giovanni Vallati are also in the system. The right side isn’t as strong, but the Jets can’t pass up picking the second-best defender in this year’s draft with Sanderson possessing top-pairing upside.

13) New York Rangers — Noel Gunler (RW/LW, Sweden, Lulea SHL)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers are loaded on defence for the future, so they go with their best available forward in Gunler, who is one of the best goal-scorers in this draft class. The Rangers would be really potent with Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Kaapo Kakko, Filip Chytil, Vitali Kravtsov and Gunler comprising their top six. Gunler and Kakko paired together on the second line — flanking Chytil or Kravtsov — could be all kinds of fun.

14) Florida Panthers — Seth Jarvis (RW, Canada, Portland WHL)

ANALYSIS: Florida could draft by positional need and go with a defenceman from the WHL here — Braden Schneider or Kaiden Guhle — but decides to take a swing on Jarvis, who was a junior teammate with one of the Panthers’ breakout prospects Johnny Ludvig. Florida will trust that WHL scout after unearthing Ludvig as a hidden gem in last year’s third round and will be familiar with Jarvis from tracking Ludvig’s progress. Jarvis dominated the Dub in the second half, racking up 75 points over Portland’s final 37 games to surge into top-20 and potentially top-10 consideration, so this wouldn’t be seen as much of a reach.

15) Columbus Blue Jackets — Dawson Mercer (RW, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Columbus takes a versatile forward in Mercer, envisioning him on a line with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Alexandre Texier. On paper, that trio could do a lot of damage and drive the Blue Jackets’ offence going forward. Mercer’s playing style would also fit well in John Tortorella’s workmanlike system and his maturity could make him NHL ready sooner than later.

16) Calgary Flames — Connor Zary (LC, Canada, Kamloops WHL)

ANALYSIS: Calgary takes a prairie boy from Ryan Huska’s former junior team, with Zary bringing both swagger and character to complement his offensive tools. He is a clutch player that performs his best on the biggest stages — such as last year’s under-18 worlds and this year’s CHL Top Prospects Game — while relishing rivalries. Zary would fit right in with Matthew Tkachuk, Dillon Dube and 2019 first-rounder Jakob Pelletier as a hard group to play against in the Battle of Alberta for the years to come. The Flames could also opt for one of the WHL defenders.

17) Vancouver Canucks — Rodion Amirov (LW, Russia, Salavat Yulaev Ufa KHL)

ANALYSIS: Vancouver takes a fellow Russian for 2019 first-rounder Vasily Podkolzin while continuing to stockpile talented European forwards. Elias Pettersson is already a household name and fellow Swede Nils Hoglander is also on the way. The Canucks have Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller leading the offence, so Amirov would become another weapon at Travis Green’s disposal. Amirov outshone Podkolzin at last year’s under-18 worlds, but that familiarity from playing together internationally would ease their eventual transition to North America.

18) Nashville Predators — Justin Barron (RD, Canada, Halifax QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Nashville has their choice of defencemen and could prefer one of the WHLers, but Barron still has the highest ceiling outside of Drysdale and Sanderson. Barron had a rough draft year with some early struggles on a bad team before being diagnosed with a blood clot that sidelined him long term. But heading into the season, Barron was expected to challenge Drysdale as the top defenceman for 2020 while also starring for Canada at the World Juniors. Neither happened, but that upside hasn’t disappeared and Barron could have a big bounce back as a Preds’ prospect. He reminds some scouts of Ryan Ellis for comparison sake.

19) Carolina Hurricanes (Toronto) — Tyson Foerster (RW, Canada, Barrie OHL)

ANALYSIS: Carolina makes it three straight years selecting a Barrie Colts forward in the first round, with Foerster following Ryan Suzuki and Andrei Svechnikov. That wasn’t a coincidence, but Foerster came on strong throughout the draft year — highlighted by his MVP performance at the CHL Top Prospects Game — and could replace Julien Gauthier in the Hurricanes’ system. Gauthier was traded to the Rangers as a shoot-first winger, which is Foerster’s calling card as well. This might be a bit of a reach, but Foerster’s stock is on the rise.

20) Edmonton Oilers — John-Jason Peterka (LW, Germany, Munchen DEL)

ANALYSIS: Edmonton takes a German winger — much to the delight of Leon Draisaitl — with Peterka possessing good speed and scoring ability as a hard-driving forward. He showed off his attacking ways at the World Juniors, which put Peterka on the first-round radar. The Oilers will likely use this pick on another winger who can shoot and score, with Peterka fitting that bill. The fact he is German is just a bonus.

21) Ottawa Senators (N.Y. Islanders) — Hendrix Lapierre (LC, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa takes a third straight high-skill forward in this scenario, with Lapierre joining Rossi and Raymond to bolster the Senators’ future offence. Lapierre arguably has top-10 talent — that was the consensus coming out of the Hlinka Gretzky Cup to start the draft year — but concussion concerns will scare off several teams. Ottawa can take a chance with this pick and Lapierre is attractive as a hometown kid of sorts, hailing from nearby Gatineau.

22) Dallas Stars — Dylan Holloway (LC, Canada, Wisconsin NCAA)

ANALYSIS: Dallas would be shocked to see Holloway still on the board here, taking him without any hesitation. Holloway plays a power-forward game and could complement Ty Dellandrea in the Stars’ top six while potentially being a successor for Jamie Benn. Holloway would help Dallas maintain a heavy forward group built for playoff hockey.

23) New York Rangers (Carolina) — Jan Mysak (LW, Czech Republic, Hamilton OHL)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers grab another scoring forward, emerging from the first round with Mysak and Gunler. Mysak and Chytil could work some Czech magic at Madison Square Garden in the years to come. There is some risk with both those prospects — Mysak and Gunler — but if they pan out and reach their potential, the Rangers would be rolling in riches up front.

24) Pittsburgh Penguins — Jeremie Poirier (LD, Canada, Saint John QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh replaces Calen Addison as an offensive defence prospect with Poirier, who plays a similar game and has a high ceiling but needs a fair bit of refinement. The Penguins hope Poirier can mentor under Kris Letang and develop into that kind of difference-maker. Pittsburgh’s defence is very much a work in progress but Poirier would be a nice piece to go with John Marino, Marcus Pettersson and Pierre-Olivier Joseph. The Penguins would also be adding another QMJHL prospect, with Poirier and Joseph joining 2019 draft picks Samuel Poulin and Nathan Legare.

25) Philadelphia Flyers — Braden Schneider (RD, Canada, Brandon WHL)

ANALYSIS: Philadelphia has a deep prospect pool at every position — with no shortage of defencemen in the system — but decides to take their best player available in Schneider, who comes from the same junior program as Ivan Provorov. The Flyers have done well at identifying defenders from the Dub — Provorov, Travis Sanheim, Egor Zamula and Wyatt Wylie — so Schneider could be in their sights. Philadelphia is stronger on the left side than the right for the future, so there could be room for Schneider and he could make the jump relatively quickly into a shutdown role.

26) Colorado Avalanche — Martin Chromiak (LW, Slovakia, Kingston OHL)

ANALYSIS: Colorado takes a high-upside forward in Chromiak, who is one of the youngest prospects in this draft class and may be just scratching the surface of his offensive potential. Chromiak’s skill-set could complement Martin Kaut and Alex Newhook as fellow first-round picks and top forward prospects. Chromiak’s ceiling could be as high as David Pastrnak or Mikko Rantanen, depending on his development over the next couple seasons before debuting with the Avs.

27) San Jose Sharks (Tampa Bay) — Thomas Bordeleau (LC, USA/Canada, NTDP U18)

ANALYSIS: San Jose has several promising forward prospects — including some underrated Americans — and adds Bordeleau to that list. Bordeleau led The Program in scoring this season and would be a surefire first-rounder if he was a few inches taller. But he has all the offensive tools to continue putting up points at the next level and to become a top-six forward for the Sharks.

28) Vegas Golden Knights — Kaiden Guhle (LD, Canada, Prince Albert WHL)

ANALYSIS: Vegas is surprised to see Guhle available here, taking him as a potential partner for 2019 second-rounder Kaedan Korczak. That would be a solid pairing, with the coincidence of sharing the same first name. Vegas would be very familiar with Guhle, having signed two of his former Prince Albert teammates in fellow defencemen Brayden Pachal and Zack Hayes. Guhle has a lot more upside as a two-way force and should make more of an impact at the NHL level than his older brother Brendan Guhle, who is now with Anaheim.

29) Washington Capitals — Jacob Perreault (RW/RC, Canada/USA, Sarnia OHL)

ANALYSIS: Washington goes back to the OHL for Perreault after successfully selecting Connor McMichael from that league in last year’s first round. Perreault and McMichael could form a dynamic duo for the Capitals, working their way up the depth chart into top-six roles once the old guard retires or moves on. Perreault has NHL bloodlines as the son of former faceoff specialist Yanic, but Jacob is quicker and more of an offensive catalyst.

30) St. Louis Blues — Lukas Reichel (LW/RW, Germany, Berlin DEL)

ANALYSIS: St. Louis takes Reichel in restocking their prospect cupboard with a German forward after trading away 2018 first-rounder Dominik Bokk to acquire Justin Faulk from Carolina. Reichel, the nephew of former NHLer Robert Reichel, is an all-purpose forward with terrific hockey sense. Reichel may not be as flashy as fellow Germans Stutzle and Peterka but could be quite productive with a playing style that should translate well to North America. This selection would complete a historic and record-setting first round for that burgeoning hockey nation.

31) Anaheim Ducks (Boston) — Mavrik Bourque (RC, Canada, Shawinigan QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Anaheim wraps up a forward-heavy first round by taking another QMJHLer with Bourque joining Max Comtois, Bo Groulx and Antoine Morand in the Ducks’ system. Anaheim isn’t lacking in centre prospects but a couple of them could shift to the wing, including Bourque potentially. The Ducks, who selected scoring winger Alexander Holtz in the top 10, could have went back to Sweden to address their defence by choosing between Emil Andrae, William Wallinder, Helge Grans and Anton Johannesson — it would be a bit surprising if none of those four were taken in the first round — but Bourque is a good fit for their future forward group and certainly has first-round talent.

Recapping Results for Mock 1.1