The mocking is done — at least for the first round.
Now it’s on to the real challenge — my annual seven-round mocks. But, first, let’s review the first round to determine a consensus of sorts based on the 10 scenarios presented in this mock series.
I’ve already reviewed the top 10 for the prospects, so I’ll recap those results and start providing analysis after the top eight — since those eight were locks for the top 10. Interestingly, a total of 14 prospects cracked the top 10 and a whopping 56 were taken at least once in the top 31, with 21 of those 56 prospects appearing in all 10 scenarios.
For each prospect, I’ll highlight their most common match and list all of their selections — using a process of elimination to produce a consensus mock for the prospects.
Without further ado, here is how the prospects fared throughout this mock series:
Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 1
LOWEST: 1
AVERAGE: 1
MOST COMMON: Detroit (3)
SELECTION RECAP: Detroit (3 — 1, 1, 1), Ottawa (2 — 1, 1), Montreal (2 — 1, 1), Los Angeles (1 — 1), New Jersey (1 — 1), Arizona (1 — 1)
Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 2
LOWEST: 4
AVERAGE: 2
MOST COMMON: Ottawa (3)
SELECTION RECAP: Ottawa (3 — 2, 2, 4), Anaheim (2 — 2, 2), Detroit (1 — 2), Los Angeles (1 — 2), New Jersey (1 – 2), Buffalo (1 — 2), Chicago (1 — 2)
Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 3
LOWEST: 6
AVERAGE: 4
MOST COMMON: Los Angeles (6)
SELECTION RECAP: Los Angeles (6 — 3, 3, 5, 6, 6, 6), Ottawa (3 — 3, 4, 5), Anaheim (1 — 3)
Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 2
LOWEST: 9
AVERAGE: 5
MOST COMMON: Detroit (4)
SELECTION RECAP: Detroit (4 — 2, 3, 4, 4), Buffalo (3 — 3, 7, 7), Ottawa (2 — 3, 5), Chicago (1 — 9)
Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 3
LOWEST: 8
AVERAGE: 5
MOST COMMON: Ottawa (5)
SELECTION RECAP: Ottawa (5 — 3, 4, 4, 5, 6), Detroit (2 — 4, 4), New Jersey (1 — 7), Buffalo (1 — 7), Montreal (1 — 8)
Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 3
LOWEST: 8
AVERAGE: 6
MOST COMMON: New Jersey (5)
SELECTION RECAP: New Jersey (5 — 6, 6, 7, 7, 8), Ottawa (4 — 4, 5, 5, 5), Arizona (1 — 3)
Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 5
LOWEST: 9
AVERAGE: 7
MOST COMMON: Anaheim (4)
SELECTION RECAP: Anaheim (4 — 6, 6, 6, 7), Chicago (2 — 9, 9), Ottawa (1 — 5), New Jersey (1 — 7), Buffalo (1 — 7), Montreal (1 — 9)
Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 5
LOWEST: 10
AVERAGE: 8
MOST COMMON: Montreal (4)
SELECTION RECAP: Montreal (4 — 8, 8, 8, 9), Anaheim (3 — 5, 5, 7), Los Angeles (1 — 6), Chicago (1 — 9), New Jersey (1 — 10)
RELATED:THW Writers Mock Draft
Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 3
LOWEST: 12
AVERAGE: 9
MOST COMMON: Minnesota (4)
SELECTION RECAP: Minnesota (4 — 11, 11, 11, 11), Buffalo (3 — 8, 8, 9), Montreal (2 — 3, 8), Winnipeg (1 — 12)
ANALYSIS: Lundell still has a good chance of cracking the top 10, though that reach at third overall boosted his average to ensure he was next on this list after the consensus top eight. If Buffalo and Montreal don’t take Lundell in the top 10, Minnesota, Winnipeg and the Rangers will all be waiting for him in the top 15. Florida and Columbus would have interest too, so I can’t see Lundell falling any further than 15th in an absolute worst-case scenario.
Jake Sanderson (LD, USA, NTDP U18)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 9
LOWEST: 15
AVERAGE: 12
MOST COMMON: Chicago (3)
SELECTION RECAP: Chicago (3 — 9, 9, 10), Minnesota (2 — 11, 11), Winnipeg (2 — 12, 12), Florida (2 — 14, 14), Columbus (1 — 15)
ANALYSIS: Sanderson rounds out the top 10 as a consensus top-15 prospect in this mock series — with an average of 12th. Chicago is a good bet with the Blackhawks looking for a Duncan Keith successor, but Sanderson could go even higher — potentially to New Jersey or one of the California clubs, Anaheim or Los Angeles, depending how the draft lottery plays out. I feel there is a better chance that Sanderson goes in the top 10 than out, assuming some team will draft by position and prioritize defence.
Jack Quinn (RW, Canada, Ottawa OHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 8
LOWEST: 20
AVERAGE: 13
MOST COMMON: New Jersey (5)
SELECTION RECAP: New Jersey (5 — 8, 10, 10, 10, 10), Edmonton (2 — 20, 20), Florida (1 — 14), Columbus (1 — 15), Vancouver (1 — 17)
ANALYSIS: Quinn has a lot of top-10 momentum, according to those in the know, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he goes sooner than later in the first round. New Jersey has four prospects among his junior teammates with the Ottawa 67’s and the Devils could be picking twice in that 5-10 range. That is the obvious fit, but there will be interest in Quinn from other teams and I doubt he’d get past Edmonton at 20th on the low end if New Jersey isn’t as high on him as anticipated.
Yaroslav Askarov (G, Russia, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg VHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 4
LOWEST: 23
AVERAGE: 14
MOST COMMON: New Jersey (2), New York Rangers (2)
SELECTION RECAP: New Jersey (2 — 10, 10), New York Rangers (2 — 13, 23), Los Angeles (1 — 4), Chicago (1 — 9), Minnesota (1 — 11), Columbus (1 — 15), Edmonton (1 — 20), Ottawa (1 — 21)
ANALYSIS: Askarov is the biggest wild card of this year’s first round — as is often the case with goalies — but he is also touted as the best goaltending prospect to come through the draft since Carey Price went fifth overall in 2005. Askarov went as high as fourth in this mock series — though that selection suggested a trade-down scenario for Los Angeles — and as low as 23rd, which frankly feels way too low for his talent level. Assuming New Jersey ends up with Vancouver’s conditional pick — at 17th for the sake of this series — the Devils would be crazy to pass on Askarov three times in the top 20, including twice in the top 10. Ottawa is also making their third selection of the first round at 21st, so the Senators should be eager to halt Askarov’s fall if he happens to make it out of the top 20.
Noel Gunler (RW/LW, Sweden, Lulea SHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 8
LOWEST: 17
AVERAGE: 14
MOST COMMON: New York Rangers (3), Vancouver (3)
SELECTION RECAP: New York Rangers (3 — 13, 13, 13), Vancouver (3 — 17, 17, 17), Columbus (2 — 15, 15), Buffalo (1 — 8), New Jersey (1 — 10)
ANALYSIS: Gunler is another wild card but, unlike Askarov, there are a few good fits for him in that 10-20 range. The Rangers and Canucks — if Vancouver retains their pick — are the prime landing spots, but Columbus makes a lot of sense too. So does New Jersey if the Devils get Vancouver’s pick and Askarov is gone at that spot. Gunler didn’t get past Vancouver in this series — staying in the teens, aside from twice being taken in the top 10 — but you can bet that Edmonton would love to land him at 20th if he starts sliding.
Dylan Holloway (LC, Canada, Wisconsin NCAA)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 11
LOWEST: 22
AVERAGE: 15
MOST COMMON: Winnipeg (2), New York Rangers (2), Calgary (2)
SELECTION RECAP: Winnipeg (2 — 12, 12), New York Rangers (2 — 13, 13), Calgary (2 — 16, 16), Minnesota (1 — 11), Florida (1 — 14), Vancouver (1 — 17), Dallas (1 — 22)
ANALYSIS: Holloway’s range sounds about right, from 11 to 22, with Winnipeg and Calgary certainly having reasons to target him. Holloway hails from Calgary and would make for another nice hometown selection for the Flames — following Dillon Dube and Matthew Phillips — while the Jets are in need of a second-line centre to play behind Mark Scheifele for the future. Holloway has a real projectable skill-set with a seemingly high floor as a middle-six forward, so he could become a BPA option — as in best player available — for several teams in the teens and certainly into the twenties.
Connor Zary (LC, Canada, Kamloops WHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 11
LOWEST: 22
AVERAGE: 16
MOST COMMON: Winnipeg (3)
SELECTION RECAP: Winnipeg (3 — 12, 12, 12), Minnesota (1 — 11), Calgary (1 — 16), Vancouver (1 — 17), Nashville (1 — 18), Carolina (1 — 19), Edmonton (1 — 20), Dallas (1 — 22)
ANALYSIS: Zary and Holloway will likely be on the radar for the same teams, with Winnipeg topping that list. The Jets are due to take a Western Canadian kid in the first round and Zary fits the bill as a WHL centre to eventually replace Bryan Little. If Zary were to drop out of the top 20, he wouldn’t get past Dallas with Tom Gaglardi’s connection to Kamloops — he owns both the Stars and Blazers.
Rodion Amirov (LW, Russia, Salavat Yulaev Ufa KHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 13
LOWEST: 23
AVERAGE: 18
MOST COMMON: New York Rangers (3)
SELECTION RECAP: New York Rangers (3 — 13, 23, 23), Florida (2 — 14, 14), Vancouver (2 — 17, 17), Carolina (1 — 19), Edmonton (1 — 20), Dallas (1 — 22)
ANALYSIS: Amirov winds up a little lower on this list than he probably should be — blame the Russian factor for bringing down his average — but he is still likely to land somewhere in the teens. The Rangers and Panthers could have Amirov in their sights, and if the Canucks keep their pick, I could see Vancouver as a real possibility too.
Seth Jarvis (RW, Canada, Portland WHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 10
LOWEST: 28
AVERAGE: 18
MOST COMMON: 10 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Chicago (1 — 10), Winnipeg (1 — 12), Florida (1 — 14), Calgary (1 — 16), Nashville (1 — 18), Carolina (1 — 19), Edmonton (1 — 20), Dallas (1 — 22), Philadelphia (1 — 25), Vegas (1 — 28)
ANALYSIS: Jarvis is considered a riser thanks to his second-half surge — racking up 75 points over his final 37 games following 23 points in his first 21 games — so it wouldn’t be surprising if he went higher than some of the prospects ahead of him here. But Jarvis is undersized and that could cause him to slip a little, though it would be shocking if he fell all the way to Philadelphia or Vegas. Somewhere in the mid- to late-teens seems most likely for Jarvis.
Justin Barron (RD, Canada, Halifax QMJHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 13
LOWEST: 31
AVERAGE: 20
MOST COMMON: Nashville (2)
SELECTION RECAP: Nashville (2 — 18, 18), New York Rangers (1 — 13), Florida (1 — 14), Calgary (1 — 16), Vancouver (1 — 17), Ottawa (1 — 21), Pittsburgh (1 — 24), Colorado (1 — 26), Anaheim (1 — 31)
ANALYSIS: Barron was still a pretty big hit in this mock series despite missing much of his draft year — including the World Juniors — with a blood clot. He was selected in all 10 scenarios, which is something of a surprise since many in the scouting community are now ranking and mocking Barron outside of the first round because of his health issues. But Barron is a right-handed defender with offensive ability, which means he’ll remain a coveted commodity on draft day. Don’t forget Barron was supposed to be Jamie Drysdale’s biggest challenger as the top blueliner for 2020. Nashville could be the team to step up and steal Barron.
Hendrix Lapierre (LC, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 11
LOWEST: 31
AVERAGE: 20
MOST COMMON: Ottawa (2)
SELECTION RECAP: Ottawa (2 — 21, 21), Minnesota (1 — 11), New York Rangers (1 — 13), Columbus (1 — 15), Calgary (1 — 16), Pittsburgh (1 — 24), Philadelphia (1 — 25), Colorado (1 — 26), Anaheim (1 — 31)
ANALYSIS: Lapierre was also selected in all 10 scenarios despite concussion concerns. With several teams possessing multiple picks in the first round — including the Senators, Rangers, Ducks and likely the Wild as well, among those taking him in this mock series — there are no shortage of suitors for Lapierre. He is risky, but he was also touted as a top-10 talent coming out of last summer’s Hlinka Gretzky Cup. Somebody will take that chance in the top 31.
Jan Mysak (LW, Czech Republic, Hamilton OHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 13
LOWEST: 26
AVERAGE: 21
MOST COMMON: New York Rangers (2), Carolina (2), Ottawa (2)
SELECTION RECAP: New York Rangers (2 — 13, 23), Carolina (2 — 19, 19), Ottawa (2 — 21, 21), Nashville (1 — 18), Edmonton (1 — 20), Philadelphia (1 — 25), Colorado (1 — 26)
ANALYSIS: Mysak was taken in all 10 scenarios too, but I wouldn’t call him a consensus first-rounder based on the feedback that I’ve received. That also applies to Barron and Lapierre. Those three wouldn’t be in the top 31 for all 31 teams as of today, so perhaps they should be a few spots lower on this list. There are certainly a few safer picks to come, but Mysak does have nice upside and could be another target for teams with multiple picks — the Rangers and Senators in particular.
Kaiden Guhle (LD, Canada, Prince Albert WHL)
TOTAL: 10
HIGHEST: 14
LOWEST: 31
AVERAGE: 22
MOST COMMON: Calgary (2)
SELECTION RECAP: Calgary (2 — 16, 16), Florida (1 — 14), Columbus (1 — 15), Nashville (1 — 18), Pittsburgh (1 — 24), San Jose (1 — 27), Vegas (1 — 28), Washington (1 — 29), Anaheim (1 — 31)
ANALYSIS: Guhle is the last of the 21 prospects to go in all 10 scenarios, but he is a better bet than the previous three — Barron, Lapierre and Mysak. Guhle could go as high as 12th to Winnipeg despite not going there in any of these mocks. That would have brought up his average and presumably placed him above those other three. Guhle is more likely to be taken in the teens than the twenties.
Braden Schneider (RD, Canada, Brandon WHL)
TOTAL: 9
HIGHEST: 12
LOWEST: 31
AVERAGE: 22
MOST COMMON: Calgary (2)
SELECTION RECAP: Calgary (2 — 16, 16), Winnipeg (1 — 12), Florida (1 — 14), Philadelphia (1 — 25), Vegas (1 — 28), Washington (1 — 29), St. Louis (1 — 30), Anaheim (1 — 31)
ANALYSIS: Schneider is an older prospect for this draft class and isn’t sexy in his appeal as a shutdown defender — thus the reason he fell to the final four picks of the first round and out of the top 31 in one scenario. But Schneider also went as high as 12th to Winnipeg and in the teens three times. The range is wide, but Calgary makes a lot of sense for Schneider as a replacement for Travis Hamonic’s role in the years to come. They are similar players and come from the same junior program in Brandon.
Dawson Mercer (RW, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)
TOTAL: 9
HIGHEST: 15
LOWEST: 31
AVERAGE: 24
MOST COMMON: Ottawa (2)
SELECTION RECAP: Ottawa (2 — 21, 21), Columbus (1 — 15), New York Rangers (1 — 23), Pittsburgh (1 — 24), Philadelphia (1 — 25), Colorado (1 — 26), St. Louis (1 — 30), Anaheim (1 — 31)
ANALYSIS: Mercer became one of the bigger fallers in this mock series, sliding out of the first round in one scenario and also lingering until the final two selections. That seems unlikely, considering Mercer is so well rounded and mature while still possessing impressive offensive tools and instincts. But Mercer could be this year’s Raphael Lavoie, who fell to 38th in the second round last year. Like Lavoie, Mercer is an older prospect for this draft class and he isn’t as flashy as some of the younger prospects who may be perceived to have more upside. But Mercer should be a safer selection and could still go as high as the mid-teens — and probably should have went that high more often, with Calgary and Florida as possibilities in addition to Columbus.
Helge Grans (RD, Sweden, Malmo J20)
TOTAL: 7
HIGHEST: 15
LOWEST: 31
AVERAGE: 21
MOST COMMON: 7 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Columbus (1 — 15), Vancouver (1 — 17), Nashville (1 — 18), Edmonton (1 — 20), Dallas (1 — 22), Philadelphia (1 — 25), Anaheim (1 — 31)
ANALYSIS: Grans emerged as the top European defenceman, according to this mock series. The fact he is right handed combined with his size and skating made Grans an attractive option for seven different teams, while only going unselected three times. Grans could go as high as the mid-teens and has a few suitors in the twenties, but Anaheim would be ecstatic to take him with the final pick of the first round.
John-Jason Peterka (LW, Germany, Munchen DEL)
TOTAL: 6
HIGHEST: 19
LOWEST: 30
AVERAGE: 24
MOST COMMON: 6 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Carolina (1 — 19), Edmonton (1 — 20), Pittsburgh (1 — 24), Philadelphia (1 — 25), San Jose (1 — 27), St. Louis (1 — 30)
ANALYSIS: Peterka could be a popular target in the twenties and perhaps even sneak into the teens. The Sharks could be circling this German winger and the Blues may be looking to grab him late. Peterka was taken in six of the 10 scenarios, which suggests a 60 per cent chance of going in the first round.
Mavrik Bourque (RC, Canada, Shawinigan QMJHL)
TOTAL: 6
HIGHEST: 24
LOWEST: 31
AVERAGE: 27
MOST COMMON: Anaheim (2)
SELECTION RECAP: Anaheim (2 — 31, 31), Pittsburgh (1 — 24), Philadelphia (1 — 25), Colorado (1 — 26), San Jose (1 — 27)
ANALYSIS: Bourque has his share of suitors in the twenties and Anaheim may be high on him to round out the top 31. So there is a pretty good chance that Bourque will be a first-rounder — 60 per cent based on these results, though I would give Peterka better odds between the two.
Jacob Perreault (RW/RC, Canada/USA, Sarnia OHL)
TOTAL: 5
HIGHEST: 19
LOWEST: 30
AVERAGE: 24
MOST COMMON: Carolina (2)
SELECTION RECAP: Carolina (2 — 19, 19), Dallas (1 — 22), Washington (1 — 29), St. Louis (1 — 30)
ANALYSIS: Perreault is among three OHL forwards with a 50-50 chance of becoming first-rounders. Perreault twice went to Carolina, who took his Sarnia teammate Jamieson Rees in last year’s second round. Perreault wasn’t taken by Edmonton, but the Oilers would also have interest in this scoring winger at 20th. That is another possibility for Perreault, whose NHL bloodlines could help him go in the first round.
Tyson Foerster (RW, Canada, Barrie OHL)
TOTAL: 5
HIGHEST: 19
LOWEST: 30
AVERAGE: 25
MOST COMMON: 5 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Carolina (1 — 19), Edmonton (1 — 20), Philadelphia (1 — 25), Washington (1 — 29), St. Louis (1 — 30)
ANALYSIS: Foerster has a good shot at going in the first round thanks to his great shot. He is one of the better shooters in this draft class and every team needs goals, so Foerster could go higher than anticipated. Edmonton is a good fit, again, but Philadelphia and St. Louis strike me as prime landing spots for Foerster. Of these three OHL forwards, I’d put my money on Foerster as the best bet for the first round since he has been labelled a riser as of late.
Martin Chromiak (LW, Slovakia, Kingston OHL)
TOTAL: 5
HIGHEST: 21
LOWEST: 29
AVERAGE: 25
MOST COMMON: Colorado (2)
SELECTION RECAP: Colorado (2 — 26, 26), Ottawa (1 — 21), New York Rangers (1 — 23), Washington (1 — 29)
ANALYSIS: Chromiak made the wise decision to come overseas for the stretch run of his draft year, showcasing enough talent in the OHL to warrant serious consideration in the first round. Chromiak is also one of the younger prospects in this draft class with an August birthdate, which suggests he could be just scratching the surface of his potential. Teams with multiple picks — like the Senators and Rangers — could take a swing on Chromiak. Colorado could too, considering the Avs already have a deep prospect pool — they could go for the home run this year.
William Wallinder (LD, Sweden, MODO J20)
TOTAL: 4
HIGHEST: 18
LOWEST: 31
AVERAGE: 26
MOST COMMON: Anaheim (2)
SELECTION RECAP: Anaheim (2 — 31, 31), Nashville (1 — 18), Dallas (1 — 22)
ANALYSIS: Wallinder is a Swedish defender with good size, great skating and tons of upside. That package makes him a fairly strong candidate for the first round. Wallinder could be on Anaheim’s short list to round out the top 31, assuming Grans is gone.
Brendan Brisson (LC/LW, USA/Canada, Chicago USHL)
TOTAL: 4
HIGHEST: 24
LOWEST: 28
AVERAGE: 26
MOST COMMON: 4 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Pittsburgh (1 — 24), Colorado (1 — 26), San Jose (1 — 27), Vegas (1 — 28)
ANALYSIS: Brisson is another riser as the USHL’s rookie of the year. He finished strong and has gotten plenty of attention since the season shut down. If teams see Brisson as a centre in the NHL, that increases his chances of being a first-rounder. Even as a winger, he could crack the top 31.
Ridly Greig (LC/LW, Canada, Brandon WHL)
TOTAL: 4
HIGHEST: 25
LOWEST: 29
AVERAGE: 27
MOST COMMON: 4 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Philadelphia (1 — 25), San Jose (1 — 27), Vegas (1 — 28), Washington (1 — 29)
ANALYSIS: Greig may seem high on this list, but a lot of NHL teams like his package of skill and grit. He is another August birthdate as one of the younger prospects in this draft class, so Greig could get the benefit of the doubt from teams believing he’ll develop into an impact player. He also has NHL bloodlines, which never hurts and often helps.
Theodor Niederbach (RC, Sweden, Frolunda J20)
TOTAL: 3
HIGHEST: 21
LOWEST: 29
AVERAGE: 24
MOST COMMON: 3 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Ottawa (1 — 21), New York Rangers (1 – 23), Washington (1 — 29)
ANALYSIS: Niederbach is a talented centre from a terrific program in Frolunda. He missed all of last season to injury but made up for that lost development time by flashing first-round talent during his draft year. He didn’t get much international exposure and may still be flying under the radar for some teams — and some scouts — but Niederbach could be worth reaching for in the first round.
Lukas Reichel (LW/RW, Germany, Berlin DEL)
TOTAL: 3
HIGHEST: 24
LOWEST: 30
AVERAGE: 27
MOST COMMON: 3 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Pittsburgh (1 — 24), San Jose (1 — 27), St. Louis (1 — 30)
ANALYSIS: Reichel is another European forward with a slight chance of getting selected in the first round. The mock results peg Reichel’s chances at 30 per cent and that sounds about right, with a few teams that could be higher on him than most.
Vasily Ponomarev (LC, Russia, Shawinigan QMJHL)
TOTAL: 3
HIGHEST: 28
LOWEST: 30
AVERAGE: 29
MOST COMMON: 3 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Vegas (1 — 28), Washington (1 — 29), St. Louis (1 — 30)
ANALYSIS: Ponomarev is in the same boat as Niederbach and Reichel with a 30 per cent chance of becoming a first-rounder based on the results of this mock series. Ponomarev stood out on the international stages more so than in league play, but he is a good bet to take a big step as a sophomore in the QMJHL next season.
Lukas Cormier (LD, Canada, Charlottetown QMJHL)
TOTAL: 2
HIGHEST: 18
LOWEST: 24
AVERAGE: 21
MOST COMMON: 2 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Nashville (1 — 18), Pittsburgh (1 — 24)
ANALYSIS: Cormier leads a group of six prospects with a 20 per cent chance of going in the first round. Cormier’s height could hold him out of the top 31, but his puck-moving ability and offensive tools should ensure he gets serious consideration as a Samuel Girard clone.
Kasper Simontaival (RW, Finland, Tappara Liiga)
TOTAL: 2
HIGHEST: 19
LOWEST: 26
AVERAGE: 23
MOST COMMON: 2 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Carolina (1 — 19), Colorado (1 — 26)
ANALYSIS: Simontaival is arguably the most skilled Finnish forward in this year’s draft class — even more skilled than potential top-10 pick Anton Lundell — but Simontaival’s height also hinders his chances of cracking the first round. Most have Simontaival as a second-rounder.
Ryan O’Rourke (LD, Canada, Sault Ste. Marie OHL)
TOTAL: 2
HIGHEST: 18
LOWEST: 30
AVERAGE: 24
MOST COMMON: 2 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Nashville (1 — 18), St. Louis (1 — 30)
ANALYSIS: O’Rourke has good size and good all-around skill. He is projected as more of a shutdown type, but O’Rourke has plenty of offensive upside. St. Louis is a perfect fit, but don’t be shocked if O’Rourke is already gone by 30th. From this group of six prospects with a 20 per cent chance of becoming first-rounders, O’Rourke is probably the best bet.
Jeremie Poirier (LD, Canada, Saint John QMJHL)
TOTAL: 2
HIGHEST: 24
LOWEST: 27
AVERAGE: 26
MOST COMMON: 2 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Pittsburgh (1 — 24), San Jose (1 — 27)
ANALYSIS: Poirier is this year’s Ryan Merkley or Oliver Kylington, possessing sublime offensive skills but suspect hockey sense with lackadaisical defensive play. The ceiling is high from an offensive standpoint, but the red flags make Poirier one of the bigger wild cards for 2020.
Thomas Bordeleau (LC, USA/Canada, NTDP U18)
TOTAL: 2
HIGHEST: 26
LOWEST: 27
AVERAGE: 27
MOST COMMON: 2 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Colorado (1 — 26), San Jose (1 — 27)
ANALYSIS: Bordeleau lacks size but not skill, with the offensive tools to be productive as a pro. He also has NHL bloodlines, but Bordeleau is on the bubble for the first round — missing more often than not in this mock series.
Marat Khusnutdinov (LC, Russia, SKA-1946 St. Petersburg MHL)
TOTAL: 2
HIGHEST: 28
LOWEST: 29
AVERAGE: 29
MOST COMMON: 2 Tied (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Vegas (1 — 28), Washington (1 — 29)
ANALYSIS: Khusnutdinov rounds out that group of six prospects who were selected twice over 10 scenarios for the first round. Khusnutdinov has the Russian factor working against him, but he came on strong as the draft year progressed — displaying more creativity as he gained confidence.
Jean-Luc Foudy (RC, Canada, Windsor OHL)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 15
LOWEST: 15
AVERAGE: 15
MOST COMMON: Columbus (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Columbus (1 — 15)
ANALYSIS: Foudy was one of 15 prospects to be taken once in the first round over 10 scenarios — thus giving them 10 per cent odds for the top 31. These 15 prospects are listed in order of their selection, though I wouldn’t suggest Foudy is the most likely first-rounder among this group. But Columbus drafted his older brother Liam in the first round — 18th in 2018 — so the Blue Jackets could be just as high on Jean-Luc.
Topi Niemela (RD, Finland, Karpat Liiga)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 22
LOWEST: 22
AVERAGE: 22
MOST COMMON: Dallas (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Dallas (1 — 22)
ANALYSIS: Niemela is a smooth right-handed defender with plenty of puck poise. There are similarities to 2019 first-rounder Ville Heinola, though Niemela may not have as much offensive upside. Still, there is a decent chance that Dallas could have eyes for Niemela.
Joni Jurmo (LD, Finland, Jokerit U20)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 22
LOWEST: 22
AVERAGE: 22
MOST COMMON: Dallas (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Dallas (1 — 22)
ANALYSIS: Jurmo is a raw talent with a high ceiling as one of the most powerful skaters in this draft class. He showed flashes of impressive offensive instincts but wasn’t a consistent enough force to establish himself as a first-rounder. In fact, Jurmo would be considered quite the reach in the top 31.
Roni Hirvonen (LC, Finland, Assat Liiga)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 22
LOWEST: 22
AVERAGE: 22
MOST COMMON: Dallas (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Dallas (1 — 22)
ANALYSIS: Hirvonen is another undersized Finnish forward but has the motor and work ethic to overcome any height concerns. There are similarities to Viktor Arvidsson, albeit as a centre. The underlying numbers — shot metrics and high-danger rates — have made Hirvonen an analytics darling among draft eligibles, but the offensive upside remains a matter of debate. Dallas took a chance on Roope Hintz in the second round in 2015 and could reach for fellow Finn Hirvonen in the first round this year.
Alexander Pashin (RW, Russia, Tolpar Ufa MHL)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 23
LOWEST: 23
AVERAGE: 23
MOST COMMON: New York Rangers (1)
SELECTION RECAP: New York Rangers (1 — 23)
ANALYSIS: Pashin is small — there is no disputing that — but this little Russian doesn’t let a lack of size slow him down or deter his attacking mentality. Pashin is an offensive catalyst with big upside, but he’ll be a longer-term project as a boom-or-bust pick. The Rangers can take a swing on a high-risk, high-reward prospect like Pashin with their second selection of the first round.
Zion Nybeck (RW, Sweden, HV71 J20)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 23
LOWEST: 23
AVERAGE: 23
MOST COMMON: New York Rangers (1)
SELECTION RECAP: New York Rangers (1 — 23)
ANALYSIS: Nybeck is much the same as Pashin, setting a scoring record for the Swedish junior league despite lacking size and playing more so on the perimeter. Nybeck will need to prove his offensive tools can translate to pro — and to the NHL — but if he doesn’t go in the first round, it won’t be for a lack of skill. It would be the size concerns keeping him out of the top 31.
Jake Neighbours (LW, Canada, Edmonton WHL)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 23
LOWEST: 23
AVERAGE: 23
MOST COMMON: New York Rangers (1)
SELECTION RECAP: New York Rangers (1 — 23)
ANALYSIS: Neighbours has a high floor as a hard-working two-way forward with intangibles that could make him a leader at the NHL level. He could wear a letter in his prime — perhaps becoming a Justin Williams type. For the record, Williams went 28th overall back in 2000.
Jack Finley (RC, Canada, Spokane WHL)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 27
LOWEST: 27
AVERAGE: 27
MOST COMMON: San Jose (1)
SELECTION RECAP: San Jose (1 — 27)
ANALYSIS: Finley is going to be a bit of a wild card — rarely ranked in the top 75 or the top two rounds but possessing the size and upside that could prompt a team to reach for him much higher than anticipated. The first round might be a stretch but don’t be surprised if Finley is taken in the top 50. He is one of the youngest prospects in this draft class with a September birthdate.
Jaromir Pytlik (RC, Czech Republic, Sault Ste. Marie OHL)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 27
LOWEST: 27
AVERAGE: 27
MOST COMMON: San Jose (1)
SELECTION RECAP: San Jose (1 — 27)
ANALYSIS: Pytlik would be another shocking first-rounder — maybe more so than Finley — but he is another right-handed centre with good size and a strong two-way game. Those traits could get Pytlik selected higher than he is ranked — especially if a team likes his offensive upside, which is the biggest question mark with Pytlik.
Emil Andrae (LD, Sweden, HV71 J20)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 28
LOWEST: 28
AVERAGE: 28
MOST COMMON: Vegas (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Vegas (1 — 28)
ANALYSIS: Andrae is the most likely first-rounder among these 15 one-timers. Many have Andrae as the top European defender for 2020 — ahead of the aforementioned Grans, Wallinder, Niemela and Jurmo — so it wouldn’t be surprising if Andrae went in the top 31. It was tough to find a fit for him in the back half of the first round, but Vegas could liken Andrae to Erik Brannstrom, who they took 15th in 2017 from the same HV71 program. Other teams could certainly take Andrae as the best player available outside the top 20, which is never a bad approach.
Anton Johannesson (LD, Sweden, HV71 J20)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 28
LOWEST: 28
AVERAGE: 28
MOST COMMON: Vegas (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Vegas (1 — 28)
ANALYSIS: Johannesson, on the other hand, is one of the least likely first-rounders among these 15 one-timers. But Andrae’s defence partner with HV71 has significant offensive upside and has been the flashier of the two in my viewings. Johannesson is small and has lost a lot of development time to injuries — missing out on international showcases — but the ceiling is high if he can stay healthy and overcome those size concerns.
Luke Tuch (LW, USA, NTDP U18)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 28
LOWEST: 28
AVERAGE: 28
MOST COMMON: Vegas (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Vegas (1 — 28)
ANALYSIS: Tuch is the younger brother of Vegas winger Alex Tuch, with that connection contributing to his lone selection in the first round. Tuch is a budding power forward, but his ceiling isn’t as high as his elder sibling, who went 18th in 2014. If not Vegas, St. Louis could have interest — perhaps seeing shades of T.J. Oshie — but Tuch is a long shot as a first-rounder.
Shakir Mukhamadullin (LD, Russia, Tolpar Ufa MHL)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 29
LOWEST: 29
AVERAGE: 29
MOST COMMON: Washington (1)
SELECTION RECAP: Washington (1 — 29)
ANALYSIS: Mukhamadullin is another wild card and one of the most polarizing prospects within the online scouting community. Some wouldn’t touch him in the top 100, while others would be willing to take a chance on his upside in the top 50 — if not the top 31. This would be a real reach by Washington, but the Capitals are due to take a Russian in the first round and Mukhamadullin does have a lot of similarities to a young Dmitry Orlov.
Carter Savoie (LW, Canada, Sherwood Park AJHL)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 30
LOWEST: 30
AVERAGE: 30
MOST COMMON: St. Louis (1)
SELECTION RECAP: St. Louis (1 — 30)
ANALYSIS: Savoie could be the second coming of Jaden Schwartz — they are the same size and play a similar game as opportunistic scorers, producing at similar rates in tier-two junior leagues — so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if St. Louis is high on Savoie. The Blues would be the best bet to take him in the first round, but there could be better options still on the board at 30th.
Tyler Kleven (LD, USA, NTDP U18)
TOTAL: 1
HIGHEST: 30
LOWEST: 30
AVERAGE: 30
MOST COMMON: St. Louis (1)
SELECTION RECAP: St. Louis (1 — 30)
ANALYSIS: Kleven is a physical specimen and could become a shutdown beast, but the scouting community is very divided on his upside. Some see top-four potential — making him worthy of a first-round pick — but the majority are less optimistic about Kleven’s future, largely because of his lack of production during his draft year with only two goals and 12 points over 45 games, including just two assists in 17 USHL contests. But Kleven does have some first-round tools that can’t be totally ignored and he could be a bit of a late bloomer by the sounds of it.
Consensus Mock for Prospects
1) Alexis Lafreniere — Detroit Red Wings
2) Quinton Byfield — Ottawa Senators
3) Jamie Drysdale — Los Angeles Kings
4) Tim Stutzle — To Be Determined
5) Lucas Raymond — Ottawa Senators
6) Marco Rossi — New Jersey Devils
7) Alexander Holtz — Anaheim Ducks
8) Cole Perfetti — Montreal Canadiens
9) Anton Lundell — Minnesota Wild
10) Jake Sanderson — Chicago Blackhawks
11) Jack Quinn — New Jersey Devils
12) Yaroslav Askarov — To Be Determined
13) Noel Gunler — New York Rangers
14) Dylan Holloway — Vancouver Canucks
15) Connor Zary — Winnipeg Jets
16) Rodion Amirov — Florida Panthers
17) Seth Jarvis — Edmonton Oilers
18) Justin Barron — Nashville Predators
19) Hendrix Lapierre — Ottawa Senators
20) Jan Mysak — Carolina Hurricanes
21) Kaiden Guhle — Calgary Flames
22) Braden Schneider — Vegas Golden Knights
23) Dawson Mercer — Columbus Blue Jackets
24) Helge Grans — Dallas Stars
25) John-Jason Peterka — San Jose Sharks
26) Mavrik Bourque — Anaheim Ducks
27) Jacob Perreault — Washington Capitals
28) Tyson Foerster — Philadelphia Flyers
29) Martin Chromiak — Colorado Avalanche
30) William Wallinder — To Be Determined
31) Brendan Brisson — Pittsburgh Penguins
Honourable Mentions
32) Ridly Greig
33) Theodor Niederbach
34) Lukas Reichel
35) Vasily Ponomarev
36) Lukas Cormier
37) Kasper Simontaival
38) Ryan O’Rourke — St. Louis Blues
39) Jeremie Poirier
40) Thomas Bordeleau
41) Marat Khusnutdinov
42) Jean-Luc Foudy
43) Topi Niemela
44) Joni Jurmo
45) Roni Hirvonen
46) Alexander Pashin
47) Zion Nybeck
48) Jake Neighbours
49) Jack Finley
50) Jaromir Pytlik
51) Emil Andrae
52) Anton Johannesson
53) Luke Tuch
54) Shakir Mukhamadullin
55) Carter Savoie
56) Tyler Kleven
ANALYSIS: Stutzle and Askarov are to be determined and could really throw a wrench into most mocks depending on where they go. Depending on the lottery result, Detroit and Buffalo appear to be the most likely suitors for Stutzle, while Askarov makes sense for New Jersey and Ottawa as well as Chicago and Los Angeles to a lesser degree. Wallinder is also to be determined, replaced by O’Rourke in reviewing the first round for the teams. This review of the first round for the prospects depicts the many possibilities outside the top 20. If there is one prospect not among these 56 first-round candidates that could crack the top 31, my money would now be on Sam Colangelo from the USHL’s Chicago Steel. He is still trending up towards the first round and will probably be in the top 31 on some teams’ lists whenever the draft takes place.
- Mock 1.0
- Mock 1.1
- Mock 2.0
- Mock 2.1
- Mock 3.0
- Mock 3.1
- Mock 4.0
- Mock 4.1
- Mock 5.0
- Mock 5.1
- Mock 6.0
- Mock 6.1
- Mock 7.0
- Mock 7.1
- Mock 8.0
- Mock 8.1
- Mock 9.0
- Mock 9.1
- Mock 10
- Mock 10.1
- Reviewing Top 10 for Teams
- Reviewing First Round for Teams
- Reviewing Top 10 for Prospects
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