7 NHL Teams That Have Regressed This Offseason

The NHL offseason has quieted down since the Anaheim Ducks matched the offer sheet tendered to Leo Carlsson. With that, we can begin looking at which teams have improved this season and which ones may still have work to do. Today, let’s look at seven teams that have improved the least this offseason (so far).

Colorado Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche still appear to be the best team in the Central, but they have gotten a bit worse this offseason. That’s not a surprise, either. They were tight on cap space and needed to shed some contracts, but they also lost some good players in the process.

Among their key departures were Jack Drury, Ross Colton, and Valeri Nichushkin. The former two were traded to the Nashville Predators, while Nichushkin was traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Avalanche did sign Jaden Schwartz in free agency and acquired Zachary L’Hereux and Fedor Svechkov in the trades for Colton and Drury. Schwartz is a solid-six middle winger, while L’Hereux and Svechkov will provide bottom-six depth.

Still, the Avalanche are about 2.7 wins worse based on last season’s wins above replacement (WAR) for their main additions and departures. They did retain Brett Kulak and Brent Burns, so their blue line should remain quite good. But they will likely regress a bit from the outrageous regular season they had in 2025-26.

San Jose Sharks

The San Jose Sharks have had quite the offseason. Among their additions were Mason Marchment, Jacob Trouba, and Darnell Nurse. They also acquired Michael Kesselring in a trade with the Buffalo Sabres.

Nurse and Trouba are the most notable additions the Sharks made, but I’d have my concerns about whether they will work out. Nurse and Trouba were below-replacement-level players last season, but the Sharks likely plan on playing them in top-pair roles. Kesselring is a good bounce-back candidate, so I’m not terribly concerned about him, and Marchment is a good fit for what they need up front. But Nurse and Trouba could be problems.

Trouba did not come cheap, either. The Sharks are paying him $8.25 million per year over the next four years, a price tag that suggests he will be a top-four defender at a minimum. Overall, the Sharks lost about three wins between their departures and additions. They have a young core that should only improve, so that will mitigate what has been a not-so-great offseason for GM Mike Grier.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Kyle Dubas was quieter this offseason than last, but he still made a few moves to improve the team’s roster. Kaedan Korczak and Trevor van Riemsdyk should help on defense, especially Korczak, who has breakout potential. Dubas also signed Andrei Kuzmenko to a one-year deal, and he’ll likely replace Anthony Mantha, who remains a UFA.

Also among their additions was Nicholas Robertson, who totaled 16 goals and 32 points for the Toronto Maple Leafs this past season. Dubas and the Penguins are probably hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with some of their additions again, but it’s difficult to do that in back-to-back seasons. For example, will Kuzmenko replicate Mantha’s 33-goal, 64-point season? Can Korczak and van Riemsdyk replace Ryan Shea and Parker Wotherspoon in the top four? There are plenty of what-ifs.

Overall, the Penguins are about 3.9 wins worse between their departures and additions. Their core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang is in their late 30s, and the Metropolitan Division seems to have improved all around. I don’t think this is a bad team, but it may be difficult to repeat the surprise success they had in 2025-26.

Minnesota Wild

The Minnesota Wild have had an interesting offseason. Between the departures of Marcus Johansson, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Mats Zuccarello, they’ve lost three players who produced 45 to 55 points last season. GM Bill Guerin hasn’t done much to replace them, either.

Guerin’s most notable addition was acquiring Blake Coleman from the Calgary Flames in exchange for Jacob Middleton. Coleman is a play-driving middle-six winger still capable of 20 goals and 35-40 points. He makes up for some of what the Wild have lost this offseason, but there’s still more work to do.

I wouldn’t say the Wild are in danger of missing the playoffs. They’re about 1.1 wins worse, but the top of the Central Division remains loaded, especially with the Predators and Utah Mammoth improving. Guerin needs to add another forward to the mix, specifically down the middle. Joel Eriksson Ek is a high-end second-line center, but he’s not a No. 1. That remains Guerin’s biggest task the rest of this offseason.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs’ offseason isn’t as simple as saying it was bad. On the surface, their skater group looks much better. They added a couple of puck-moving defensemen in Emil Andrae and Darren Raddysh, and their bottom six should have more of a defensive-minded approach with additions like Colton Sissons and Brandon Duhaime. Even higher up the lineup, Jack Roslovic should add some scoring punch in the middle six.

Where the Maple Leafs’ offseason gets murky is in net. They traded Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby, who combined for a WAR of 3.5 last season. I know that might not mean anything since the Maple Leafs didn’t come close to the playoffs, but the point is they played well. Rather than run it back with Anthony Stolarz, Woll, and Hildeby, the Maple Leafs signed Sergei Bobrovsky to a three-year, $7 million AAV deal.

Bobrovsky struggled last season, totaling an .877 save percentage and finishing with a WAR of -1.6. He turns 38 in September, so this may be what he is, but the Maple Leafs are betting he bounces back. I get why GM John Chayka did it. Stolarz and Woll have had injury problems, but it could backfire if Bobrovsky is in age-related decline. Overall, they’ve lost a net of two wins this offseason, and it’s almost all related to the changes Chayka made between the pipes.  

Ottawa Senators

The Ottawa Senators did their best in a tough situation with Brady Tkachuk, but there’s no doubt they’ll miss him, at least on the ice. They acquired William Eklund and Andre Burakovsky to replace the production they’ll lose in Tkachuk, but they certainly aren’t the play-drivers that Tkachuk is.

Another possible misstep for the Senators is the signing of Sam Ersson to back up Linus Ullmark. He struggled mightily last season, finishing with a WAR of -1.6. You never know what goalies are like from year to year, but Ersson’s NHL resumé is not impressive. The Senators already struggled with goaltending for most of last season, so there’ll be added pressure on Ullmark to perform more consistently than he did.

Overall, the Senators lost about 3.8 wins this offseason. They’re in a good position, assets-wise, to make up for losing Tkachuk in the long run, but there could be a step back in an absolutely loaded Atlantic Division next season.

Vegas Golden Knights

The Vegas Golden Knights’ most notable transaction was trading Pavel Dorofeyev to the New York Rangers at the draft. He signed a seven-year, $11 million AAV extension with the Rangers, so I get why the Golden Knights declined to sign him. He’s not a play driver and needs the right personnel around him to thrive. That’s probably not a player worth an eight-figure cap hit.

Still, the Golden Knights lost some depth in Korczak, Keegan Kolesar, Cole Smith, Reilly Smith, and Ben Hutton. Overall, they’re about 1.5 wins worse than they were last regular season, and they haven’t figured out a solution in net. Carter Hart played quite well in the playoffs until the Stanley Cup Final, but he unraveled then and was a problem during the regular season.

Luckily for the Golden Knights, the Pacific Division is probably the worst in the NHL. They’re not going anywhere any time soon, but they are a slightly worse team as we sit here in mid-July.  

It’s only July 14, so there’s still plenty of time for teams to make further improvements if they so choose. But as of now, these teams are a bit worse off than they were at the end of the 2025-26 season.

Advanced stats from Evolving Hockey