Goalies are voodoo. That’s why, despite this free-agent class not having much available in net, you never know what you’re going to get. As has been the case for all the position groups we’ve covered, most NHL teams will be best off looking for help via the trade market. Still, there are a few UFA goalies worth keeping an eye on.
Sergei Bobrovsky
I only have Sergei Bobrovsky here because of his name, but he sure looks like a goaltender in decline. The Florida Panthers had a myriad of issues this season, goaltending being one of them. Bobrovsky finished with a save percentage of .877, and his underlying numbers were not particularly good.
Bobrovsky allowed 12.2 goals above expected, ranked in the bottom 10 among qualified goaltenders. His .888 five-on-five save percentage was among the bottom 15 among qualified goaltenders as well. The Panthers were not as strong a defensive team as in past seasons, but Bobrovsky still didn’t match his expected numbers.
It’ll be interesting to see what Bobrovsky signs for this summer. Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos reported that he’s seeking a six- or seven-year deal worth around a total of $42 million. I can’t imagine a team handing that out to a 37-year-old netminder who may be in decline. Evolving Hockey has him projected for a one-year, $2.919 million deal. That’s what he should go for, but all it takes is one desperate team to hand out a bad contract.
Daniil Tarasov
Bobrovsky’s partner with the Panthers this season, Daniil Tarasov was the better of the two netminders. He finished with a save percentage of .895, which was the league average this season, and his underlying metrics were generally fine.
Tarasov allowed 1.8 goals above expected, so he more or less saved what he should have. He also had a decent save percentage of .901 at five-on-five, and he had the better high-danger save percentage at all strengths compared to Bobrovsky.
Evolving Hockey projects a three-year deal at a cap hit of $4.45 million for Tarasov. He doesn’t have the strongest track record in the NHL, but there aren’t many goalies available this offseason. That’s why his contract projection may not be totally unreasonable. We’ll see if a team bites or if he’ll have to take another one-year prove-it deal.
Connor Ingram
Connor Ingram has overcome a lot in recent years, and he generally played well for an Edmonton Oilers team that had one of the worst defensive environments this season. He finished with a save percentage of .899, slightly above the league average, and his underlying metrics were solid.
Ingram saved 2.11 goals above expected at all strengths, and he totaled a five-on-five save percentage of .901. He struggled in the playoffs, but the Oilers did not offer him much support in their first-round defeat to the Anaheim Ducks.
Ingram has a decent NHL résumé. He has a career save percentage of .901 across 134 games, and that could lead to a bit of a payday. Evolving Hockey projects a three-year deal at a cap hit of $5.195 million. He could thrive in a better defensive environment and with a team that already has an established 1A or 1B.
Stuart Skinner
Stuart Skinner may be a bit of a punching bag on social media, but he actually played pretty well this season. His save percentage of .888 may not indicate it, but his underlying numbers were generally solid.
Skinner saved 8.3 goals above expected between the Oilers and the Pittsburgh Penguins, and he posted a five-on-five save percentage of .900. The Oilers and Penguins were among the weaker defensive teams this season, but he held his own.
Like Ingram, Skinner has a decent NHL résumé; he has a career save percentage of .902. If a team with an already established 1B needs a complement, Skinner could make sense, but he could be expensive. Evolving Hockey projects a five-year deal at a cap hit of $6.355 million for Skinner. That comes with quite a bit of risk, given his inconsistencies from year to year, but you can say that about any of the goalies in this year’s UFA class.
Frederik Andersen
One thing going in Frederik Andersen’s favor is that he just won the Stanley Cup with the Carolina Hurricanes. Brandon Bussi may have closed out the Final with three straight starts, but the Hurricanes would have never made the Final without Andersen.
Andersen had an OK regular season. He finished with a save percentage of .874, but he only allowed 3.3 goals above expected. The Hurricanes have notoriously had one of the worst environments for goaltenders. It just hasn’t mattered all that much because their skater group is so deep.
Injuries have been a concern with Andersen, and he’s getting up there in age; he turns 37 in October. Still, he’s a solid netminder. Evolving Hockey projects a one-year, $1.447 million deal for Andersen. He’d likely do well with another team that has a similar setup as the Hurricanes with Bussi and Pyotr Kochetkov, and there’s certainly less risk with him if all it’ll take to sign him is a one-year deal.
Trade Market Is the Way to Go
There are a few other goalies worth mentioning briefly, but most will be backups. David Rittich is the most notable. He’s coming off a solid season with the New York Islanders that saw him total a save percentage of .894 while saving 4.2 goals above expected. He should be a fine, cheap option for a team that needs a backup. Eric Comrie, Vitek Vanecek, and Cam Talbot will also be among the UFA options, but they’re backups at this point in their careers.
Otherwise, the trade market is once again the best bet for teams looking for netminding. There appears to be plenty of noise around Connor Hellebuyck, and other trade targets include Jacob Markström, Elvis Merzlikins, and Adin Hill. There are no sure things, but they may be better than what free agency has to offer.
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