8 NHL Free Agents That Should Be Avoided This Offseason

NHL Free Agency isn’t what it used to be. Perhaps it’ll change in the coming years with the rising salary cap, but this is one of the weakest UFA groups I can recall. You could say it’s best to avoid every UFA this year, but others stand above the rest. Let’s look at eight UFAs that general managers should steer clear of on July 1.

Logan Stanley

Logan Stanley had a “breakout year” between the Winnipeg Jets and Buffalo Sabres, but it looks more like a mirage than anything else. He totaled nine goals and 26 points in 76 games between the two teams, but that was largely because he shot over 12 percent with the Jets.

Otherwise, Stanley’s underlying metrics raise some red flags. He’s a below-average defender, and he’s unlikely to repeat his offensive output from this season. Evolving Hockey has Stanley projected for a four-year contract at a cap hit of $3.968 million. You could do worse than that in free agency, but it wouldn’t shock me if someone overpays for the 6-foot-7 defender because of his size.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Goalies are voodoo, so you never know, but Sergei Bobrovsky sure looks like a goaltender in decline. He finished this season with an .877 save percentage and allowed 12.2 goals above expected. It looks like the Florida Panthers may let him walk to free agency, but what could the market look like for him?

Early reports indicated that Bobrovsky was seeking a six- or seven-year contract worth $42 million. That is a lot to pay for a 37-year-old who seems to be showing signs of decline, but all it takes is one team to throw the bag at him. Evolving Hockey has Bobrovsky projected for a one-year, $2.919 million deal. That would be perfectly fine, but anything beyond a two-year term is asking for trouble.

Anthony Mantha

Anthony Mantha is probably the top UFA left in this year’s class after Alex Tuch agreed to a sign-and-trade with the Washington Capitals. He’s coming off a career year that saw him total 33 goals and 64 points in 81 games with the Pittsburgh Penguins, and that should lead to a payday.

While Mantha is a capable top-six winger, he’s a prime regression candidate for next season. He shot 21.7 percent, well above his career average of 13.8 percent, and he had an on-ice shooting percentage of 13.36 percent, the highest of his career. He also scored 25 five-on-five goals on 13.18 expected goals. All those metrics suggest regression is coming.

The question with Mantha is, what will his next payday look like? Evolving Hockey has Mantha projected for a three-year deal at a cap hit of $5.321 million. Even with him likely heading for regression, you could sell me on that contract. He has a proven track record of being a 20-goal, 40-to-45-point scorer. But with the UFA class being what it is, some team might be willing to give him an 8×8 payday that they’ll likely regret.

Rasmus Andersson

Rasmus Andersson had a productive season between the Calgary Flames and Vegas Golden Knights, totaling 17 goals and 47 points in 81 games. He’s still got plenty to offer offensively, but his defensive game has begun to decline; it certainly showed in the playoffs.

Andersson struggles to defend the rush, and he’s not nearly as efficient as he used to be breaking out of the defensive zone. His strength is as a shooter and offensive creator, but he could easily earn the payday of a No. 1 defender.

Evolving Hockey has Andersson projected for a seven-year deal at a cap hit of $9.013 million. Even with the salary cap rising, that’s the price of a No. 1 defender. The problem is that he’s not that anymore and would be better suited as a second-pair defenseman who doesn’t play difficult defensive minutes. There’s potential for a nightmare contract here.

Stuart Skinner

Bobrovsky isn’t the only goalie who might be in for a payday this offseason. Stuart Skinner could be, too. He finished with an .888 save percentage this season and saved 8.3 goals above expected, the latter ranking 21st in the NHL.

Still, we know how inconsistent Skinner has been over the years. Perhaps the Edmonton Oilers’ defensive environment contributed to his struggles, because he was much better after they traded him to the Penguins. But I would still be cautious about giving him serious term and dollars in free agency.

Evolving Hockey has Skinner projected for a five-year deal at a cap hit of $6.355 million. Maybe that’s a bit pricey, but Dan Vladar is about to sign a five-year extension with the Philadelphia Flyers at a cap hit of $5.5 million. Skinner’s camp will likely use that as a comp, so don’t be shocked if he signs a similar deal.

Jacob Trouba

Jacob Trouba had a bounce-back season with the Anaheim Ducks, totaling 10 goals and 35 points in 81 games. He was largely their No. 1 option on the right side of their blue line before they acquired John Carlson at the trade deadline. As such, the 32-year-old defender could be looking at another payday, especially if Carlson doesn’t make it to free agency.

I’d be wary of paying Trouba the money he could earn, though. He posted some poor underlying metrics at five-on-five this season, and he’s on the wrong side of 30. Any long-term deal for him could age like milk:

Evolving Hockey projects a seven-year deal at a cap hit of $7.227 million for Trouba. Even in the rising cap world, that’s more than he’s worth at this point in his career. While right-handed defensemen are always in demand, teams are better off looking to the trade market or seeking a cheaper option, such as Nick Blankenburg, in free agency.

Mario Ferraro

It’s hard to discern Mario Ferraro’s game because of how poor the Sharks’ defense has been over the last few years. But his rugged style of hockey will likely appeal to GMs who want to make their teams tougher to play against.

Ferraro doesn’t have much puck skills, but he is physical and at least an average rush defender. He’s also fares well on retrievals and wins one-on-one battles. He’s strictly a defensive defenseman, but there’s value in that.

Still, I’d be cautious about paying Ferraro. Evolving Hockey projects a four-year deal of just above $5.5 million per year for Ferraro. A rebuilding team like the Chicago Blackhawks, with exorbitant amounts of cap space, would make sense for him. But if you’re a contender, I’d probably stay away. There’s more of a likelihood that his next contract won’t age well.

Andrew Peeke

Every year, there’s always a defenseman who gets overpaid in free agency. Think along the lines of Erik Gudbranson or Ben Chiarot. This year, Andrew Peeke could be that defenseman.

Peeke is not known for his offense, but he plays a physical and rugged game that GMs love. Unfortunately, the results don’t exactly back up the reputation. He does not defend the rush well, struggles with puck retrievals, and has little to no puck-moving ability. He throws his body around, but it does little to impact the game.

Evolving Hockey has Peeke projected for a four-year deal at a cap hit of $4.815 million. Even in a rising cap world, that’s just too much money for what he offers. Similar contracts for Gudbranson and Chiarot have not aged well, and Peeke is unlikely to avoid the same fate.

This is one of the weaker UFA classes in a while, but with so much demand and so little supply, there could be some head-scratching contracts handed out on July 1. We’ll see what it looks like when the dust settles by the end of the week.

Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Stats