The St. Louis Blues 2022-23 season is officially over. They missed the playoffs for the first time since 2017-18. They followed that season up by winning the Stanley Cup in 2019. However, this season felt different than 2017-18 did. They are not currently in a position to contend for a Cup in 2023-24. They were clearly only a few players away after the 2017-18 season, so that was the difference.
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Here at The Hockey Writers, our Blues team of myself, Mike Meyer, Stephen Ground, and Marcus Ashpaugh did our own preseason predictions. I’m here to review them with the season being over. I’ll admit that they aren’t great, but none of us expected the Blues to be mostly non-competitive this season. Let’s take a look back.
Blues’ Leading Points Scorer
Preseason Predictions – Ethan and Stephen (Jordan Kyrou), Mike (Vladimir Tarasenko), Marcus (Pavel Buchnevich)
Actual Leader – Kyrou
While Jordan Kyrou led the Blues in points, I don’t think he was their best player. Pavel Buchnevich was second behind him and I think he was the Blues’ best player overall this season. However, Kyrou beat him out by six points with 73 points in 79 games.
Kyrou was an easy prediction to make. He had a terrific season in 2021-22 and was poised to be even better in 2022-23. He didn’t score as many points as last season, but he had 37 goals overall. He scored the most goals by a Blues player since Vladimir Tarasenko had 39 in 2016-17. This is the second straight season where the Blues had a 30-goal scorer not named Tarasenko as Buchnevich did last season. As for Mike’s prediction of Tarasenko, it wasn’t a bad pick. He had 82 points last season, but he struggled a lot this season and was traded to the New York Rangers in February.
Overall, our predictions for the leading scorer weren’t bad. Stephen and I were correct, while Marcus’ pick of Buchnevich finished second on the team with 67 points.
Blues’ Most Valuable Player
Preseason Predictions – Ethan (Buchnevich), Stephen (Jordan Binnington), Mike (Brayden Schenn), Marcus (Robert Thomas)
There’s a lot to unpack with this one. There isn’t really a clear most valuable player from this team, and I’ll sound biased if I say it’s Buchnevich. I believe that most Blues fans would say it’s him, but I think there are a few other players that could be worthy of the honor. I chose Buchnevich because I believe he’s the best overall player on this team. He didn’t stay fully healthy and played just 63 games, but he scored over a point per game.
Stephen’s pick of Jordan Binnington turned out to be interesting. There are a number of Blues fans that believe he could be the most valuable player of this season. However, I would not make an argument for that. While it’s not all on him, his numbers are just so bad. The Blues’ defense is bad, but Binnington has also not been the same goaltender as he was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Mike’s pick of Brayden Schenn is solid. Schenn is a major candidate for the Blues’ vacant captaincy role and played all 82 games this season. I understand that plus/minus isn’t the most important stat, but Schenn was a minus-27 this season. He was a valuable player for the Blues, but not the most valuable.
I’m surprised that Marcus’ pick of Robert Thomas didn’t turn out better. It was a weird season for him. His overall numbers were solid, but they were down from last season. He scored an incredible 1.07 points per game last season, but it dropped to 0.89 this season. There was also the whole ordeal between head coach Craig Berube and Thomas after Berube called the team’s best players out. It was just a weird season for Thomas and I think he wants to put it behind him. His eight-year contract extension kicks in next season, so it should be a big year for him in 2023-24.
Blues’ Most Surprising Player
Preseason Predictions – Ethan (Torey Krug), Stephen (Brandon Saad), Mike (Josh Leivo), Marcus (Logan Brown)
This was a tough set of predictions to look back on. Going into the 2022-23 season, there was a decent argument to make for any of the four picks. I’d say that Mike had the best prediction here. My pick of Torey Krug was not good as he only played in 63 games and had 32 points. He was also a minus-26 and struggled defensively. Stephen’s pick of Brandon Saad was fine, but not enough to write home about. He had 24 goals in 78 games last season and followed that up with 19 goals in 71 games this season. It was a completely average season for Saad. He wasn’t great, but he also wasn’t bad.
As I said above, I think Mike made the best pick here. Josh Leivo wasn’t expected to do much if anything for the Blues this season. He played 51 games and rotated between all four lines throughout the year. He had four goals and 12 assists for 16 points. He was one of the most consistent forecheckers for the Blues too. I thought he held up well when he played and would be a great depth forward to keep around next season. Marcus’ pick of Logan Brown did not turn out well. It’s become abundantly clear that he is not a third-line center for this team. He might not be a fourth-line center either. He struggled mightily this season in 30 games played. It just hasn’t worked out for him after being traded by the Ottawa Senators to his hometown Blues.
I would argue that the Blues’ most surprising player is somebody that wasn’t in the organization when the season began. Sammy Blais came back to the Blues in the Tarasenko trade and had an amazing last few months of the season. I was surprised to see how terrific he looked for the Blues. He played the final 31 games of the season and tallied 20 points. He earned himself a one-year contract extension as well. Blais will be a huge part of the Blues’ forward group next season. As for other most surprising player picks, I think Calle Rosen would also fit the bill.
Blues’ Most Disappointing Player
Preseason Predictions – Ethan (Ivan Barbashev), Stephen (Colton Parayko), Mike (Klim Kostin), Marcus (Nick Leddy)
Let’s start with my pick. The basis of it was simple as I laid it out, “I’m not saying that Barbashev will have a bad season, but he won’t do what he did last season. His role is likely to remain the same as a third-line versatility forward. However, I believe that his production will be down to near where it was before a breakout season in 2021-22. Barbashev won’t be viewed as a bad player, but it would be disappointing to see his production fall off that much.”
Barbashev’s production did go down and that was predictable. Before being traded to the Vegas Golden Knights, he had 29 points in 59 games. His points per game went from 0.74 last season to 0.59 this season. He didn’t play as well as 2021-22, but he wasn’t worthy of being the most disappointing player.
Stephen’s pick of Colton Parayko was good. The expectations for him continue to slide every season. He had another rough season in 2022-23. He struggled defensively and played far too many minutes. The Blues’ defensive unit as a whole struggled and that ties into Marcus’ pick of Nick Leddy as well. Both Leddy and Parayko had disappointing seasons. In fact, every Blues’ defenseman outside of Rosen and Tyler Tucker was a disappointment.
Mike’s pick of Klim Kostin never really played out as he was traded to the Edmonton Oilers in early October before the season began. Others candidates would be Ryan O’Reilly before he was traded and the two goaltenders.
Blues’ Final Points Tally
Preseason Predictions – Ethan (104), Stephen (99), Mike (101), Marcus (103)
Actual Points Tally – 81
Our predictions here weren’t remotely close to the actual result. The Blues went into the 2022-23 season after tallying 109 points and pushing the eventual Cup champion Colorado Avalanche to a Game 6 in the second round. Stephen was the closest, but he didn’t expect the Blues to be this bad, “The Blues are going to take a big step back overall and be on the playoff bubble this year. Losing [David] Perron really hurts. Losing [Ville] Husso really hurts. They haven’t added anything of any significance. On top of that, they had absurdly high shooting percentages across the board last season.” This season was more than disappointing.
Blues’ Playoff Prediction
Preseason Predictions – Ethan (Second Round Loss), Stephen (Wild Card Bubble/First Round Exit), Mike (Loss in First Two Rounds), Marcus (Second Round Loss)
None of us expected the Blues to go deep into the playoffs, but to miss them entirely by 14 points is severely disappointing. Stephen ended up being the best predictor of us all when it came to the Blues’ 2022-23 season result. He wasn’t all that high on them, and rightfully so, looking back on it. It’ll be interesting to see if we can do better with our 2023-24 season predictions, but I get the sense that it’ll be even tougher to predict.
A Huge Offseason is Ahead for the Blues
It’s not like the Blues are going to turn back into a Cup contender overnight, but there’s a lot to get done this summer. They currently have three first-round picks and five picks overall in the first three rounds. They’ll also look to add a third-line center to bolster their depth and rid themselves of a contract from the blue line. Be on the lookout for our Blues’ report cards, draft coverage, free agency predictions, and more all summer at The Hockey Writers.