Canucks Learn Lessons About Margins for Error vs. Predators in Game 5

With five contests in the books of the first-round series between the Nashville Predators and Vancouver Canucks, a few trends have stood out. Number one, even though the goalies aren’t being peppered as much as they could be, they’re all coming up huge – and we mean all of them given Vancouver’s wild predicament. Two, it is virtually impossible to guess what will happen next. Just when one thinks a game will finish one way, an event erupts out of the blue that sends the match into a tizzy. That happened many times in Game 5 on Tuesday, won by the Predators 2-1 to close the series gap to 3-2. Here are the takeaways.

The Non-Challenge by Tocchet

There is little sense in burying the lede. It’s what everyone was talking about after the contest and the Canucks faced the fact that they had blown a chance to put away a dastardly, perseverant Predators side on home ice. The hot topics are Roman Josi’s power-play goal at 7:15 of the third period to level the terms 1-1 and, more critically, Canucks’ head coach Rick Tocchet‘s decision to not challenge its legality.

In his press conference afterwards, Tocchet admitted that a challenge was considered, but that he and his staff deemed their odds 50/50. As such, knowing that failure would have awarded the Predators with yet another power play, they opted out. The game hung in the balance, it appeared Nashville had scored when up a man, so not wanting to do anything to give them more momentum was fair enough.

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Of course, that’s not what a lot of other people were saying online, but then again, those other people aren’t the head coach of the Canucks in a playoff game with the pressure of closing out a series in the third period of the fifth bout. 

The moment in question is very dicey. Is the play in the crease neat and clean? Not by a long shot. Josi is served a slick pass for a partial breakaway, which Arturs Silovs saves, albeit with some contact on his body. The biscuit just hangs around, not fully shielded by Silovs so the play is still alive while the goalie is lying sprawled. Gustav Nyquist smells blood and goes in to pounce on the loose puck, only to be drilled by Nikita Zadorov at the last second. As that’s happening Teddy Blueger also comes in to help. The action between Zadorov and Nyquist shoves Blueger forward and into Silovs, pushing the goalie and the puck backward, with the latter slowly sliding behind the goal line. 

Is there some interference? Probably. Is Vancouver’s attempts at defending the play producing some of the interference? Probably. If Tocchet challenges it could he be rewarded? Yes. Could it backfire? Possibly. 

From a Nashville perspective, you take the money and run. The referees didn’t deem anything wrong on the play. From a Vancouver perspective, it’s incredibly frustrating. There might be enough on the play to refuse the goal, but maybe not conclusively. As Tocchet said, it’s 50/50. On Monday night, Tampa Bay Lightning coach John Cooper challenged a goaltender interference call and got burned. Who knows if Tocchet was thinking about that. There is a case to be made that this moment in Vancouver was equally as touch-and-go as the one in Sunrise the night before.

It’s easy to play armchair quarterback (armchair NHL coach?). One thing is for sure, now is not the time to live with regrets. There is another game to be played.

Low Scoring but High-Flying Affair

As disappointing as the result was for Canucks fans, another way to look at it is that Game 5, despite only featuring three goals, was the most entertaining. Granted, the other four matches had their moments, but it feels safe to say that they also had sequences that felt slow and sluggish. In contrast, Game 5 was like a breath of fresh air.

Nashville Predators Celebrate
Filip Forsberg of the Nashville Predators is congratulated by teammates after scoring against the Vancouver Canucks during the 3rd period of Game Five of the First Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs (Photo by Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images)

It’s important to take away positive in defeat. The only reason why the match was scoreless at the end of the first period was Juuse Saros. Vancouver did just about everything right except score a goal. Blueger and Carson Soucy both played a hand in keeping pucks in Nashville’s zone, the Canucks looked hungry to get the jump on their opponents, swirling all over the place. The Connor Garland/Elias Lindholm combination played well yet again and almost pulled off the same trick as the overtime winner in Game 4, only for Saros to shut the door this time. 

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People tend to remember the back-and-forth affairs that finish with plenty of goals, but a 2-1 contest can be just as thrilling. Saros and Silovs were truly excellent despite only facing 20 and 22 shot attempts, respectively. 

It was nice to see the rivals play a more free-flowing brand of hockey. Even watching the telecast from home, one could tell that the Rogers Arena crowd was bouncing. The Canucks faced a great goalie who caught on fire. That’s not a reason to revert to the Game 3 and 4 performances. Yes, they lost Game 5, but Vancouver often looked amazing. One has to think that will pay dividends eventually.

Opportunity Beckons for Canucks

Much like the Eastern Conference series pitting the Toronto Maple Leafs versus the Boston Bruins, the home side has claimed victory only once in five matches. What’s more, in both cases, that happened in Game 1. From that point onward Nashville took Game 2 as the road team, Vancouver took Games 3 and 4 in Nashville, and the Predators responded last night as the visitors. 

There is a case to be made that this bodes well for the Canucks, as Game 6 sees the clubs head back to Tennessee. But the Canucks should be wary. There is more than enough evidence to suggest that the Predators will not go down quietly. In fact, there is more than enough evidence to suggest that in a parallel universe, the series is already over and the Predators have won. How did Vancouver win Game 1? With two brilliant goals in rapid succession in the third period when trailing 2-1. How did they win Game 4? An unbelievable comeback incredibly late in the third period that only a Hollywood screenwriter would come up with. Even then, that script might be rejected for being laughably unconvincing.

The point being made isn’t that Vancouver doesn’t merit its 3-2 series lead. The results are what they are. But the margins in this series have been fine. Just look at Nikita Zadorov’s goal in Game 5: out of the blue from a tight angle when the score was 0-0 in the third period. And it could have been the series clincher! Saros would have given up a bad goal that decided the entire series. At every moment through 60 minutes of regulation the outcome has hung in the balance. No team has blown out the other and nobody has operated on cruise control. 

Now is when coaching becomes critical for the Canucks. It’s Tocchet’s job to tell his players that Game 5’s final score is water under the bridge and if they play as they did again for Game 6, then they can close out the series. There is no reason why they can’t if they perform with similar intensity. 

Everyone gets to hold their breath again on Friday night.