As far as last days of school go, the Colorado Avalanche had a great one. An unexpected Joel Kiviranta hat trick punctuated an emphatic 5-2 win against the slumping Seattle Kraken and sent the Avalanche into the holidays in a jolly mood. The team does not play again until Dec. 27 against the Utah Hockey Club and enter the Christmas break with a record of 21-15-0 through 36 games. After how the 2024-25 season started, occupying one of the Central Division’s three automatic playoff berths is a wonderful present to receive.
With another year almost in the rearview, let’s take a look at how the first half of the campaign has unfolded, and why the Avalanche should feel good about the state of things heading into 2025.
Avalanche Survive Injury Crisis
Over the first third of the season, only the San Jose Sharks and the St. Louis Blues have accrued a greater cumulative Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP). Seven Avalanche skaters have missed at least 10 of the first 36 games of the campaign. Some have returned to the lineup, but the list of names is filled with several key players.
| Player | Games Missed |
|---|---|
| Gabriel Landeskog | 36 |
| Jonathan Drouin | 31 |
| Miles Wood | 20 |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 17 |
| Ross Colton | 17 |
| Josh Manson | 12 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 12 |
It might be a cop-out to include Landeskog, but his continued absence and $7 million cap hit are still affecting the Avalanche. The captain has been placed on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) but his presence there prevents them from accruing cap space ahead of the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline.
Despite the lengthy injury list, the Avalanche rank eighth in the Western Conference with a .583 points percentage (PTS%). What were once massive gaps atop both the division and the conference have dwindled to fewer than 10 points, though most teams ahead of the Avalanche have at least one game in hand.
Related: Dear Santa: Colorado Avalanche’s 2024-25 Wish List
Since the Avalanche lost their fourth consecutive game to start the season on Oct. 16, they have flipped a switch and gone 21-11-0, ranking sixth in the NHL by PTS% over that time. They have also won 16 games over their last 25, nine of their last 15, and eight of their last 11. The rest of the league had their chance to put the Avalanche away for good, and now they face a monster waking from hibernation.
Avalanche Superstars Firing on All Cylinders
If the Avalanche are going to win the 2025 Stanley Cup, they will do so on the backs of their resident superstars in Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen.
MacKinnon appears energized by his Hart Trophy win last season and has responded with a league-leading 57 points (14 goals and 43 assists) in 36 games. That scoring pace puts him on track to hit 130 points for the campaign, and likely earns him a fifth Hart Trophy nomination at season’s end.
With Quinn Hughes (2024) and Erik Karlsson (2023) winning the Norris Trophy over the past two seasons, Makar is itching to get his hands back on the award he won in 2022. As of this writing, the 26-year-old rearguard either leads or is tied for the lead among all defensemen in goals (11), assists (34), points (45), and points-per-game (1.25). The race looks like it will be between Makar and Hughes once again this season, and will likely go down to the wire.
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Rantanen is the ideal wingman, both literally and figuratively. He feasts off of the passes fed to him by MacKinnon and Makar but possesses an all-world shot capable of beating any goaltender inside the blue line. The Finnish forward is making the most of his contract year with 19 goals (tied-fifth among all skaters), 33 assists (tied-fifth), and 52 points (tied-second). Whether his next deal keeps him in Colorado or takes him elsewhere is an underlying storyline this season, but he’s shown why he’s worthy of a massive contract extension.
The Avalanche are the only NHL team with at least three skaters who have scored 40 points or more this season, demonstrating how valuable their stars are to their on-ice success. Where they go, so do the Avalanche.
Avalanche Successfully Revamped Goaltending Tandem
Other than the injuries, the biggest storyline impacting the Avalanche’s season has been the situation in the crease. All six of Alexandar Georgiev (18 games played), Justus Annunen (11), Scott Wedgewood (six), Mackenzie Blackwood (four), Trent Miner (one), and Kaapo Kahkonen (one) have all made at least one appearance this season.
Georgiev and Annunen were part of two separate trades which saw Wedgewood and Blackwood assume the reins in the net, while Miner (American Hockey League) and Kahkonen (claimed on waivers) are no longer factors.
The Avalanche own the third-worst save percentage (SV%) in the league this season (.876), but have observed marked improvement in that department since their two new charges came to town. Since the first trade involving Wedgewood was made (Nov. 30), the Avalanche rank eighth in SV% (.912) and have won eight of the 12 games in that span.
What is more impressive is that Georgiev also played two more games before being traded to the Sharks, and the team still sits top 10 by SV% in December. Blackwood (.934) and Wedgewood (.932) have collectively been impenetrable, ranking ninth and 11th respectively in goals saved above expected (GSAx) for the month.
Given that the team looked visibly deflated after Georgiev or Annunen would allow a soft goal, the confidence and change in mentality offered by a new tandem provides benefits beyond the boxscore. If the Avalanche are going to go deep into the postseason, their goaltenders will have to stand tall under pressure.
Avalanche Playing Winning Hockey at Five-on-Five
The Avalanche’s overall plus-one goal differential looks like it would belong to a team on the playoff bubble, not one with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations. Colorado’s injury troubles and instability in the crease should take most of the blame for that unimpressive mark, but the numbers under the hood at five-on-five tell a different story.
| Statistic (%) | Avalanche | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 47.3 | 22nd |
| Shots | 52.4 | 7th |
| Scoring Chances | 54.5 | 2nd |
| High-Danger Chances | 50.6 | 14th |
| Expected Goals | 51 | 13th |
The Avalanche unsurprisingly rank in the bottom half/third of the league by their share of five-on-five goals, but keep the state of their goaltending in mind. Otherwise, they are a top 10 team in terms of the rate of shots and scoring chances allowed, but also top 12 in shots, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities generated per 60 minutes. With a fully healthy forward group, those numbers should all see an uptick over the rest of the season.
Avalanche Should Be Considered Stanley Cup Contenders
Of the major outlets to publish Stanley Cup projections, MoneyPuck (4% to win the Cup), Hockey Reference (3%), and The Athletic (3%) (from ‘NHL 2024-25 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings’ – Dom Luszczyszyn – The Athletic – 04/12/24) don’t give the Avalanche much of a chance to raise the chalice in June.
Unless they secure home-ice advantage in at least the first round of the playoffs, they will be underrated by the oddsmakers. Finishing ahead of two or more of the Winnipeg Jets, Minnesota Wild, and the Dallas Stars will go a long way in making their path to the Stanley Cup a little clearer but for now, they’ll have to settle for being the underdogs.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
