Dallas Stars Round 1 Preview: Series vs. Wild Is as Even as It Gets

The Dallas Stars take on the Minnesota Wild on Saturday afternoon to kick off their quest for their fourth straight Western Conference Final with hopes to finally get over the hump and get to that elusive Stanley Cup Final in June. It’s been a long road since their playoff departure last season, and the road to redemption starts with a bang.

The vibes are high in Dallas, so I don’t want to dwell on this long, but let’s quickly take a look back before we dive into Round 1. Last season, the Stars ended the regular season on a concerning seven-game losing streak and never really regained their form before losing to the Edmonton Oilers in the Conference Final. Game 5, among other things, cost former head coach Pete DeBoer his job, and the long summer began earlier than they wanted it to.

Well, fast forward to now, and the feeling around this team could not be more opposite. The Stars finished off the regular season with a five-game winning streak, and head coach Glen Gulutzan has done more than enough to prove that he was, and is, the right man for the job.

Yet, their reward for the second-best record in the West and the third-best in the NHL is to take on a Wild team that has Cup aspirations and potential in its own right.

Let’s dive in.

It Doesn’t Get More Even Than This

On the surface, the Stars are the favorite in the series, and in many ways, they should be. They have home ice, for starters, and their playoff pedigree is much more established. In addition, the Stars have won six playoff rounds in the last three seasons, while the Wild have not made it out of the first round in their last seven attempts (eight if you include the qualifying round in the bubble year). However, after a deeper look, these teams are way more even than you might think.

In Dallas, the Stars were 26-11-4, and 24-9-8 away from American Airlines Center. The Wild were 23-10-8 in Minnesota and 23-14-4 on the road. The Stars’ records are better both home and away, but not by much.

The Stars finished ninth in the NHL in goals per game with 3.33, and the Wild finished in 12th with just 0.05 fewer goals at 3.27. For goals against per game, the Stars were second in the league with 2.43, and the Wild allowed 2.87, which was fourth.

When it comes to the special teams, it wasn’t much different. The Stars were second on the power play (PP) at 28.6% and 12th on the penalty kill (PK) at 80.3%. The Wild were third on the PP at 25.2% and 16th on the PK at 79.8%.

Goal Scorers Aplenty

The offensive output in the series is going to be really interesting to watch. We went over how efficient both of these teams are with the man advantage and how mediocre they both have been when down a man. Five-on-five production is going to be incredibly important, and both of these teams have the firepower to get it.

There were 10 players in the NHL this season who scored between 41 and 53 goals. This series has four of them.

For Dallas, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston both finished the season with 45 goals, which tied them for third in the league with Wild superstar Kirill Kaprizov. The fourth player on this list is Matt Boldy, who had a career-high 42 goals.

Out of Johnston and Robertson’s 90 goals combined, 42 of them were on the PP. Almost half. Compared to the 30 out of Kaprizov’s and Boldy’s 87, that’s pretty insane. That stat can go both ways, too. On the one hand, power plays are going to be hard to come by on most nights, and Dallas has the sharpshooters to take advantage. On the other hand, for that same reason, 5-on-5 production is going to be essential, which the Stars have a hard time getting from time to time.

Goaltending Battle Closer Than You Think

If someone asked you who you would take in a seven-game series between Jake Oettinger and Filip Gustavsson, I feel fairly confident that the majority of you would choose Oettinger. Me too. Without looking at the numbers, he’s played in more big games throughout his career and has looked really good doing it. Although if we do look at the numbers, they tell a slightly different story.

In 54 games, Oettinger was 35-12-6, with a .899 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.59 goals-against average (GAA). In 50 games, Gustavsson had a .904 SV% and a 2.69 GAA. Maybe if Gustavsson played four more games, those numbers would have balanced out a bit more, but those are pretty dang even.

We’ve been talking at length about how similar the numbers between these two teams are, no matter the category. What’s hilarious to me is that it even applies to the number of shots these goalies faced. Oettinger made 1,234 saves on 1,372 shots. Gustavsson stopped 1,245 out of 1,377. Again, pretty dang even.

As brilliant as Oettinger has been in the playoffs throughout the years, Gustavsson has played pretty well himself, only in a significantly smaller sample size. In 11 career playoff games, he has a .917 SV% and a 2.53 GAA.

Oettinger is and will be the starting goaltender for the Stars throughout the postseason, unless something catastrophic happens. But as highly as I’ve been speaking of Gustavsson, the same cannot be said of the Wild goalkeeper. Backup netminder Jesper Wallstedt has had a terrific season, posting an 18-9-3 record, to go along with a .916 SV% and a 2.61 GAA, and has been rewarded with the start in Game 1. Considering Gustavsson has allowed 25 goals in his last six starts, the decision can’t be argued too heavily. That being said, if the Wild make a run, I would expect both goalies to have a say in that.

Who Has the Physical Edge?

The Stars are a much more physical team than they were last season. Not necessarily in the way of hits alone, but in their engagement in the emotion of the game. That being said, the Stars are still a ways off from where the Wild are physically, and they’re not bruisers themselves. This is a skill vs. skill series, but if last week’s matchup was an indication, this has the potential to be a blood bath.

The Wild were 11th in the NHL in hits with 1,742, while the Stars were 25th with 1,553. Now, that might look like a big difference, and it is decent, but it’s not really what you think. Yakov Trenin led the Wild and the rest of the league with 413 hits. The next highest total on the Wild was 180 from Marcus Foligno. After that was Joel Eriksson Ek with 106. Quite the drop-off.

For the Stars, Adam Erne led the way with 142 hits in 45 games, and Lian Bichsel was next with 139 in 50 games. If they played a full season, they still wouldn’t have caught up with Trenin, but the number would have been much closer.

The point is, neither of these teams resembles the “Broad Street Bullies”; however, there is no love lost, and they will definitely be throwing the body around. Which team can outlast the other is the real question.

How Much Will Injuries Play Into the Series?

In Texas, there has been as much talk about the injuries that Dallas is facing as there has been about the series itself.

The big news is that Roope Hintz will be out of the lineup for Games 1 and 2, at least, and has been out since March 6. A massive strength of the Stars is their depth down the middle of the ice. Miro Heiskanen has been out with a lower-body injury he sustained against the Wild in their last matchup and is tracking to start Game 1 on Saturday.

Those two guys are two of the Stars’ best players, so clearly their absence would hinder them. However, if you had to pick one, Heiskanen would be the guy you would want in the lineup. The Stars have the depth to grind through without Hintz. As good as the Stars’ defense is, without Heiskanen, it is a completely different story.

In Minnesota, Quinn Hughes did not travel with the team due to an illness but is still expected to play on Saturday.

Final Prediction

Stars in 6

This is going to be a very good series, and I could absolutely see it going seven games. To me, it comes down to two specific things.

As I’ve noted over the last few minutes, these teams are very evenly matched, to the point that this series could go either way. In a situation like this, I look at two things: experience and goaltending.

If it’s a coin flip, I want the best goaltender in the series, and that is Oettinger. I also want the team that has been there before, and that is the Stars. That might sound simplistic, but to me, it doesn’t get more complicated than that.