Edmonton Oilers 5 Best-Case Scenarios for 2025–26

The Edmonton Oilers enter the regular season with a different kind of team. The roster isn’t as loaded, the depth looks thinner, and Connor McDavid’s contract situation hangs over everything. But if things break right, the Oilers still have a path to finally finishing the job. Here are five best-case scenarios for Edmonton in 2025-26.

The Oilers head into the new season with two clear hopes: a stronger start and a different ending. For the past two years, they’ve stumbled out of the gate before finding their stride, only to push all the way to the Stanley Cup Final—where both runs ended the same way, in defeat to the Florida Panthers. This time, the Oilers want to come out fast and, more importantly, finish the job. That’s the goal for the season. The big question is: can they do it?

Best-Case Scenario 1. Connor McDavid Signs and Stays Locked In

The biggest question around the Oilers isn’t whether they can score goals—it’s whether their captain is sticking around. McDavid is in the final year of his deal, and so far, there’s no extension. The dream scenario is simple: McDavid signs, the distraction goes away, and the team rallies around the commitment.

Logic suggests he will stay. But, then, how long? A shorter-term contract might be in the cards for him and the Oilers.

On the ice, even a “down year” for McDavid looks like 100 points. If he’s healthy and driven—especially knowing this could be the year—he can tilt every series Edmonton plays. A fully engaged McDavid is still the most dangerous player in hockey.

Best-Case Scenario 2. Leon Draisaitl Takes Another Step

Leon Draisaitl is often called the best second-best player in the league. Last season, once again, he showed why. Fifty-two goals, over 100 points, and a playoff run where he matched McDavid’s production point for point. Best-case scenario? He takes the baton when McDavid draws the most challenging matchups and dominates like the true star he is.

If Draisaitl keeps leading the league in goals, runs the power play, and keeps rounding out his defensive game, Edmonton suddenly looks a lot less like a one-person show. He might even sneak into the Hart Trophy conversation again. Expect him to do so.

Best-Case Scenario 3. The Supporting Cast Bounces Back

Last season, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Evan Bouchard all saw a dip in their production compared to their career years. Hyman’s goal total dropped by 10. Nugent-Hopkins went from 104 points to under 50. Bouchard cooled off from a point-per-game pace.

If even just two of those three rebounded, the Oilers’ top six looks scary again. Add in Andrew Mangiapane, who could thrive next to McDavid or Draisaitl if he clicks, and suddenly the forward group doesn’t look so thin. Toss in young guys like Ike Howard and Matt Savoie, and Edmonton could find that depth scoring it’s missed.

Best-Case Scenario 4. The Defence Holds Together

On paper, the Oilers’ defence isn’t bad. Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are a strong top pair. Darnell Nurse, Jake Walman, and Brett Kulak can all handle second-pair minutes. If Ekholm stays healthy and Walman’s addition works out, this group is good enough to support their stars.

Best case? Ekholm isn’t slowing down. He regains his old self after battling injury. Nurse avoids the big mistakes that draw criticism. Bouchard keeps driving the offence without being a defensive liability. If those things line up, the Oilers won’t just trade chances—they’ll actually protect leads.

Best-Case Scenario 5. Stuart Skinner Finally Settles In

Goaltending is always the conversation in Edmonton, and last season was no different. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard were fine, but many people – even Oilers fans – don’t believe they are Cup-caliber. For the Oilers to win it all, they need at least average goaltending when it matters most.

The dream scenario is Skinner finding consistency. He doesn’t need to turn into Sergei Bobrovsky; he needs to give Edmonton steady saves, maintain a .900+ save percentage through the postseason, and avoid the playoff collapse. Pickard seems able to chip in as a reliable backup, which makes the tandem work.

The Bottom Line: The Oilers Still Have a Window

This isn’t the deepest Oilers team we’ve seen, and losing veterans like Evander Kane, Viktor Arvidsson, and Corey Perry leaves questions. But with McDavid and Draisaitl in their prime, Edmonton still has a window.

Best-case scenario? McDavid commits, Draisaitl dominates, the supporting cast rebounds, the defence stays steady, and Skinner locks in. Do all that, and the Oilers aren’t just making another run—they’re winning the whole thing.