What is the definition of the slang term “mid”? It means something is of average, mediocre or poor quality, often used to express disappointment or disapproval. I don’t know about you, but that seems like the perfect way to describe what’s unfolding in the Eastern Conference playoff race for the final wild-card spot.
Related: Maple Leafs Want to Avoid the Senators in Round 1
There are probably three realistic teams vying for that spot, with another two having slim chances, but nobody seems to want to take that spot. It remains up for grabs, but who will come away with it?
New York Rangers
Talent-wise, the New York Rangers are probably the “best” team vying for the second wild-card spot, though they certainly haven’t played like it. Sure, they sold at the trade deadline, but they still have Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox and Igor Shesterkin. I don’t think any teams competing for this playoff spot boast that kind of high-end talent.
But for whatever reason, it hasn’t clicked for the Rangers this season. Regression from players like Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad hasn’t helped, and their power play hasn’t been as lethal, but they should be better than their record indicates.
However, the Rangers have not played particularly great hockey lately. They have a 44.69 expected goals percentage (xG%) over their last ten games, a bottom-10 rate in the NHL. Making matters worse, they have a brutal schedule to close out the regular season.
It starts tonight with a tilt against the Minnesota Wild, who are battling to secure their playoff position in the West. They also play the Tampa Bay Lightning twice, the Carolina Hurricanes and the Florida Panthers. That’s about as difficult as it gets. Shesterkin will likely have to steal a couple of wins for them, but that might be too tall a task. Ultimately, I think the difficulty of their schedule keeps them out.
Columbus Blue Jackets
If you aren’t rooting for the Columbus Blue Jackets to make the playoffs after what they’ve been through in the last year, what the heck? It looked like the Blue Jackets were in a prime position for WC2 a month ago. They were just four points back of the New Jersey Devils for third in the Metro, but they’ve slipped quite a bit over the last month.
The Blue Jackets are 4-8-1 across their last 13 games, including the two losses to the Devils. They’ve played well in some of those games and have had some outrageously bad shooting luck, but it came at the worst possible time. They’re now 10 points back of the Devils, but WC2 is still in their grasp.
They’re just two points back of the Montreal Canadiens, who occupy WC2 as of this writing, and their underlying numbers suggest they might have the juice to make a run. The Blue Jackets have a 55.69 xG% across their last ten games; only three teams have a better xG% across their previous ten games. They’re shooting just 8.46 percent at five-on-five across those ten games, but their process suggests they should be converting more often.
However, like the Rangers, the Blue Jackets’ schedule isn’t doing them any favors. They have a home-and-home with the Ottawa Senators and another with the Washington Capitals. They also have to play the Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche. The Capitals may have nothing to play for by the time that home-and-home takes place on April 12 and 13, but that’s still a tall task for the Blue Jackets, even if their process suggests they should be getting better results.
Montreal Canadiens
The current WC2 holder may have the best odds of getting the job done. The Canadiens aren’t playing the best hockey out there, but they continue to find ways to win and stay in the race. They have the best record over their last ten games (4-3-3) of the teams chasing WC2 and just swept a home-and-home with the Florida Panthers.
For context’s sake, the Rangers are 4-5-1 over their last ten, the Blue Jackets are 3-6-1, the New York Islanders have lost six in a row and are 3-4-3, and the Detroit Red Wings are 4-5-1. The Canadiens’ schedule also looks much more favorable than the Rangers and the Blue Jackets to close the regular season.
The Canadiens have tilts left against the Maple Leafs, Senators and Hurricanes, but they also play the Philadelphia Flyers, Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, Chicago Blackhawks and Red Wings. That’s pretty favorable for the most part and may ultimately put them over the edge, even though I’d argue that the Blue Jackets and Rangers are better than the Canadiens.
What About the Islanders and Red Wings?
The Islanders were in the thick of the playoff just two weeks ago. But the math is starting to stack up against them since they’ve lost six in a row, and their goal differential of -26 suggests it’s a long shot they get back in it.
They also don’t have the easiest schedule. The Islanders play the Wild, the Capitals twice, the Devils, the Rangers and the Blue Jackets. Even though games against the Rangers and Blue Jackets might have some meaning, the Islanders appear out of it.
MoneyPuck has the Islanders’ playoff odds at just under four percent after losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning last night. They did go on an incredible heater at the end of last season to sneak into the playoffs. But that may prove difficult without Mathew Barzal (injured) and Brock Nelson, the latter whom they traded to the Colorado Avalanche.
As for the Red Wings, I was never a believer, even after the coaching change to Todd McLellan. He did right the ship and get them back in the conversation, but that roster just isn’t good enough to make a run. Per MoneyPuck, their playoff odds are down to just 2.9 percent. It’s probably over for them, too.
Are the Canadiens the Favorite?
So, who makes it? The Rangers and Blue Jackets have the best goal differentials at +2 and -8, but they have incredibly difficult schedules to close the season. The schedule isn’t the sole determiner, but it does give the Canadiens the easiest path. Do I think they’re a good team? Not really, but that goes for everyone chasing WC2. Someone will fail upward into that position, just as the Capitals did a season ago, and the Canadiens seem like the best bet.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
