The Philadelphia Flyers clutched out a 1-0 win over the New Jersey Devils during Wayne Simmonds’ retirement ceremony to keep their playoff hopes alive. What were some takeaways?
Ersson Finding His Game Again
After a disastrous stretch of six games from March 26 to April 9, during which his best save percentage (SV%) in an individual contest was .867, goaltender Sam Ersson has now had two quality efforts in a row. With 44 saves on his last 45 shots and a shutout in this one, he has seen a return to form. For a while, that seemed very unlikely.
Ersson has had almost no days off since around the middle of January, and that has seemingly taken a toll on his body. He just wasn’t making the big — or even routine — stops he was used to. Going from a complete liability to arguably the biggest reason why the Flyers won, this was definitely a change of fortune for him. Winning in regulation was a must because it would have complicated some already unlikely playoff scenarios for the Orange and Black.
If Ersson can be more consistent in the future, he could be a 40-game starter in Philadelphia for a long time. He has had 29 starts in the team’s last 35 games, which has proven to be too high of a pace for him. There could be a sweet spot for him, and said sweet spot could return results like his last two contests more often than what proceeded them.
Konecny Finally Coming to Play
When the Flyers went on an eight-game losing streak, Travis Konecny had some pretty serious struggles for Philadelphia. His point totals weren’t too bad, with four over that stretch, but it was clear that he was not making too much of a difference. Their failures were magnified without one of the Flyers’ top energy players who can create a spark in the team when producing.
Over his last two games, though, Konecny has seen a return to form just like Ersson. He has two goals and an assist in that time, scoring the game-winner in this one. It might have taken a while, but he is finally back and showing up when the team needs him the most.
Related: Flyers’ Playoff Hopes Hinge on Travis Konecny
Konecny, who recorded his 400th NHL point in this game, needs to prove that he is worth keeping in Philadelphia. The last season of his contract begins in 2024-25, which means that he will soon be eligible for an extension. It doesn’t exactly scream “rebuilder” when a team gives a 27-year-old winger big money, but that is what he will be eyeing from Philadelphia. This is the stretch where he has to prove that he is a part of the solution.
If the Flyers miraculously clinch the postseason after being dead in the water following their 9-3 loss to the Montreal Canadiens, Konecny will have to show up big in Game 82, as well. The way he played against the Devils suggests he is capable of doing that.
Flyers’ Playoff Clinching Scenarios
With the Flyers’ 87 points in 81 games, they are still very much alive in the playoff race. They got just a little bit of help on April 13 after their game on the out-of-town scoreboard, but they will still need a little bit more to make the postseason. What has to go down?
To make things simple, the Flyers would be best off beating the Washington Capitals in regulation for their final game. If that were to happen, the Capitals, even with 87 points in 80 games, would be behind the Orange and Black no matter what due to tiebreaking scenarios. Even if they beat the Boston Bruins in regulation for their second-last game, the ultimate decider would be the Flyers’ record against the Capitals this season. At 2-1-0, if they were to win in regulation, Washington would lose that battle.
While Washington would be out of the way with a regulation win, the Flyers need some pretty big help from other teams. First, the Detroit Red Wings have 87 points in 80 contests, just like the Capitals, but have a back-to-back against the Montreal Canadiens for their final showdown. If the Canadiens can win just one of those two games in regulation, the best the Red Wings could be at would be 89 points in 82 games. The first tiebreaker in the NHL is regulation wins, and they currently sit at 27 versus Philadelphia’s 30. If the two clubs tie in points, the Flyers will be ahead. The Red Wings play on April 15 and 16.
Finally, the Pittsburgh Penguins still pose a threat even after losing 5-3 to the Bruins on April 13. Just like with the Red Wings, the Flyers need them to lose in regulation to secure a playoff spot. They have the Nashville Predators at home and the New York Islanders on the road, which could theoretically be two challenging contests.
MoneyPuck’s playoff model has the Flyers at a 22.7 percent chance of making the postseason, with the Capitals and Red Wings ahead of them at 34.3 percent and 26.1 percent, respectively. The Penguins trail at 21.1 percent. The battle in the Eastern Conference has hit its peak, and the Flyers are still somehow in the mix for it.
The Flyers are faced with a must-win contest against the Capitals on April 16 at Wells Fargo Center. Win, and they could make the playoffs right then and there if the Red Wings and Penguins lose their games in regulation a day prior. It might set up to be a 2009-10 flashback when Philadelphia, with 86 points, clinched a playoff spot on the final day of the season at home against the New York Rangers, who also had 86 points.