After two separate seven game winning streaks, the Detroit Red Wings’ honeymoon phase with new head coach Todd McLellan is officially over. Detroit has a dismal 2-8-0 record in their past 10 games, dropping out of the top wildcard spot and finding themselves in the crowd of teams fighting for the second wild card spot.
As of Friday morning, the Red Wings are sitting with a 0.515 points percentage, the 22nd spot in the league. In the past three weeks Detroit has dropped significantly from a .569 points percentage that saw them holding the first wild card spot with a four point cushion over the playoff bar.
With 14 games remaining in their 2024-25 season, and the league’s hardest remaining schedule, just how far in the standings can the Red Wings realistically fall, and what does that mean for them in the 2025 NHL Draft?
The Drop So Far
In their past 10 games, Detroit has dropped their season long points percentage by .054, from .569 to .515. Another drop like that would put them at 0.461, putting them in a similar range in the standings to teams like the Buffalo Sabres, Philadelphia Flyers, and Seattle Kraken. That means another difficult stretch from here to the end of the season could realistically put Detroit within “striking” range of a top-5 pick in the 2025 Draft.
Related: NHL’s Top 100 Prospects – Midseason Update
Detroit’s offense has been especially reliant on their power play success lately, with Patrick Kane being the only player on the team to score more than five points at 5v5 over the past 10 games. However, one sign that this level of a slump isn’t sustainable is that Lucas Raymond has scored just one goal on 26 shots over that same period. I don’t know exactly when the puck will start going in again for him, but I do know that Raymond is not a sub-4% shooter in a larger sample size.
Detroit’s PDO (the sum of team shooting percentage and save percentage with 1.000 being perfectly fair luck) over this stretch ranks 30th in the league at .942. They rank 30th in save percentage (0.866 sv%) and 31st in shooting percentage (7.6%) over these recent weeks, and while those numbers aren’t sustainable for a long period of time, likely regressing in a positive direction, they aren’t particularly likely to shoot back up considering Detroit’s difficult schedule for the last month of the season (stats via. Natural Stat Trick).
How Far Could They Go?
None of the 10 teams below the Red Wings by points percentage are exactly surging right now, so Detroit would need to hold onto their current downward trajectory in order to land a higher draft pick. They are currently sitting with the 11th best draft lottery odds, but could easily get into the 8th spot given their challenging schedule.
Detroit’s remaining strength of schedule (the average points percentage of all remaining opponents, via. Tankathon) is .594, a points percentage that would land 13th in the NHL right now, just above teams like the Ottawa Senators and the New Jersey Devils. That means that the Red Wings’ final month is essentially a gauntlet of playoff level competition leading all the way up to the end of the season. If Detroit can somehow come out of this as a playoff team, they will have earned a ton of respect and proven themselves capable of being a disruptor as a wildcard team.
Where Could They Land in the 2025 Draft?
Currently holding the 11th best lottery odds, let’s assume Detroit ends up with the 11th overall pick, which is seriously likely at a roughly 80% chance. Are there any prospects in this class who fit Detroit’s drafting style as a strong skater with a high compete level? Absolutely.
Victor Eklund, brother of San Jose Sharks winger William Eklund, would be an incredible fit for the Red Wings, with a ton of skill and elusive edgework that has allowed him to be incredibly successful against grown men in Sweden this year. However, Red Wings fans would need to hope that his 5-foot-11 frame is enough for some teams to pass on him because he could be in play as early as the sixth or seventh picks.
Kashawn Aitcheson is an ultra-competitive and physical defenseman who has drawn some comparisons to Jacob Trouba already. He loves to agitate and outmuscle opponents, and should provide some moderate offense in the NHL given his strong shot from the point and good hands. Jake O’Brien is another typical Red Wings-style player, though his skill set as a competitive center with good skill might make him a bit redundant to an organization with Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson already in the fold.
Carter Bear produced points at a remarkable rate in the WHL this season, but will miss the rest of the year after tearing his achilles. Bear provides a physical game on the wing, and creates chances well around the net. I think his nose for the crease and quick hands would complement Detroit’s future centers who project more as playmakers. Milton Gastrin is another name Detroit would consider, as he profiles quite similarly to Kasper in his draft year as a hard-working center who doesn’t project as a massive point producer.
The way I see this draft class, there’s a bit of a gap between the 5th and 6th best players, and a bigger gap between 10th and 11th so getting a pick in the top-10 would be huge so Detroit isn’t left with the top player in the next tier below. Obviously the odds are super long, but Detroit currently holds a roughly 6% chance of winning a draft lottery spot, and could conceivably double their odds with another poor month of play.
Another Disappointing March for the Red Wings
For the third consecutive season, it seems like the Red Wings are going to officially fall out of the playoff race late. Two years ago they ran out of steam, last year they went without captain Dylan Larkin for a number of important games, and this time they have simply been passed over by competitors like the Senators and Montreal Canadiens.
Obviously, this isn’t the best version of this team, with prospects like Axel Sandin Pellikka, Nate Danielson and Sebastian Cossa still waiting in the wings and players like Marco Kasper and Simon Edvinsson only just establishing themselves as NHLers. However, the Red Wings will need to piece together a strong enough roster around their young stars sooner than later if they don’t want to waste the prime years of players like Larkin and Alex DeBrincat.
It’s been a goal for this team to play important games in March over the past few seasons, but maybe it’s time to raise those expectations and play some important games in April sometime soon.