Morgan Rielly has been a fixture on the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ blue line since he was drafted fifth overall in 2012. Over the years, he has become a mainstay on the team and is one of the most reliable defensemen in the league. However, with the Maple Leafs heading into the final stretch of the regular season, Rielly’s role has changed under new head coach Craig Berube.
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As the team continues to fight for the top spot in the Atlantic Division, two questions arise: First, can Morgan Rielly bounce back from his struggles? Second, what’s next for Rielly heading into the postseason?
Rielly’s Ice Time: A Shift in Usage
Rielly’s ice time has always been a significant part of his game. Throughout his 12-year career, he has rarely seen a season with less than 20 minutes of ice time per game. In six of his last 10 seasons, Rielly has averaged over 23 minutes per game. But this season, things have changed. Under Berube, Rielly’s ice time has dropped to 21:28, his lowest average since 2014-15. This minute dip is particularly noticeable during the Maple Leafs’ recent three-game win streak.
First, we’ll look at the ice time for the previous 10 games.
| Player | Games Played | Average Ice Time |
| Morgan Rielly | 10 | 22:11 |
| Jake McCabe | 10 | 21:51 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 10 | 21:14 |
| Brandon Carlo | 7 | 19:23 |
| Chris Tanev | 3 | 18:22 |
| Simon Benoit | 10 | 15:51 |
Rielly led the team in ice time for defensemen during that 10-game stretch. Tanev, on the other hand, only averaged 18:22 due to his three games being split by an injury. Before Tanev got hurt, he played 20:33. After his return, he logged 18:15 and 16:21 in his two games back. His ice time would likely have been higher had he been fully healthy. In fact, in the game just before his injury, Rielly played nearly a full minute more than Tanev, recording 21:28.
Brandon Carlo, acquired at the trade deadline, had his ice time affected by the adjustment period required to learn the system, and Berube was working to figure out how best to utilize him.
Let’s look at the ice time for the last three games.
| Player | Games Played | Average Ice Time |
| Jake McCabe | 3 | 23:13 |
| Chris Tanev | 3 | 20:47 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 3 | 20:25 |
| Morgan Rielly | 3 | 19:24 |
| Brandon Carlo | 3 | 18:09 |
| Simon Benoit | 3 | 15:17 |
As seen in the table above, Rielly’s average ice time has dropped by 2:47 per game during the win streak. Meanwhile, Jake McCabe, Tanev, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson have all seen increases in their ice time. This shift in ice time allocation highlights the coaching adjustments under Berube and could indicate Rielly’s reduced reliance on the stretch run.
Defensive Zone Usage & Struggles
Rielly’s role on the ice has also changed regarding his starting zone. Historically, Rielly has begun about 52% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Last season, this number rose slightly to 57.2% under Sheldon Keefe. Under Berube, however, Rielly has started 65.4% of his shifts in the offensive zone. This deployment indicates that Berube has been leveraging Rielly’s offensive strengths.
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However, we’ve seen a notable shift in the last three games. Rielly’s offensive zone starts have dropped to 58%, while his defensive zone starts have risen. This adjustment may be an attempt to shelter Rielly more due to his defensive struggles, as his defensive lapses have become more apparent this season.
One glaring statistic reflecting Rielly’s difficulties this season is his minus-19 rating. This is just one away from his worst plus/minus season, which came in 2016-17 when he finished at minus-20. Rielly’s defensive lapses have been a factor in the Maple Leafs’ defensive struggles. This negative rating must improve for the team to succeed in the playoffs.
The Bottom Line: What Does the Future Hold for Rielly?
As the Maple Leafs near the playoffs, Rielly’s performance is a significant talking point. He has been one of the Maple Leafs’ best performers in the postseason, with 40 points in 57 playoff games and a plus-14 rating. His past playoff success offers hope that he can return to form when the postseason arrives.
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However, Berube’s reduced usage of Rielly could signal a shift in how the team handles him down the stretch. The Maple Leafs must balance Rielly’s offensive contributions and his defensive shortcomings. It will be intriguing to see how Berube adjusts his usage of Rielly as the postseason approaches.
For now, Berube won’t rely on Rielly as heavily in the regular season’s final stretch as the Maple Leafs have in the past. Every game is critical, with the team in a heated battle for first place in the Atlantic Division. Rielly’s performance in the coming weeks will be key to determining how the Maple Leafs fare in the postseason. If he can find his rhythm again and eliminate his defensive mistakes, the Maple Leafs could have a dynamic Rielly in the postseason. Only time will tell if this reduced role is a temporary adjustment or a permanent shift moving forward.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
