The Edmonton Oilers added a sniper who is a proven scorer and an extremely effective 5-v-5 player this offseason in Jeff Skinner. Signing him as a UFA on a team-friendly deal after the Buffalo Sabres bought out his $9 million contract, Skinner doesn’t bring a lot of speed or physicality to the team, but he does know how to put the puck in the net. On a club as deep as the Oilers, he should have no trouble putting up another 20-plus goal season, maybe more.
But, on a roster this deep, opportunities may not come like they did in Buffalo.
So, what is a realistic expectation for the number of goals Skinner can score next season?
Skinner’s Resume is Impressive
Last season, Skinner posted 24 goals for the Sabres in 74 games. That’s about 27 goals in 82 games. The two seasons prior, he had 30-plus goal campaigns, scoring 35 in 2022-23 and 33 in 2021-22. He’s got a 40-goal season on his resume and three more 30-plus goal seasons. One could argue, in all of those years, he’s never been on a team as loaded up front as this Oilers team is.
Unless something drastic happens, Skinner will play with one of Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl; at times, maybe both. Skinner will get opportunities to score and he’s good at finishing.
The Power Play Will Be a Factor
It’s important to note that Skinner has been an important part of the power plays on the teams he’s been a part of. He scored eight goals each of the last two seasons. He’s not going to see nearly that much time on the power play in Edmonton. Skinner averaged 2:42 seconds per game on the man-advantage last season. He’ll be lucky to get anything close to that as a second-unit guy in Edmonton.
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The Oilers’ top unit power play won’t be changing. As one of the best in the NHL, they play the lion’s share of the time on ice for the team, often eating up 90 percent of any opportunity. Skinner will join names like Evander Kane, Darnell Nurse, Ryan McLeod, Corey Perry, Viktor Arvidsson, and Mattias Ekholm on the second unit. It’s still going to be one of the stronger second units in the NHL, but it won’t see a lot of ice time.
Realistic Guesses for Goals
Putting the over-under at 24 goals seems fair. It’s what he scored last season and on this roster, he should do that without much issue, even if the power play time isn’t available to him. Skinner said when talking to Edmonton media, “My goal is to fit in and be a piece of the puzzle & bring the things that I do well to the team.” It’s key to remember though, his job is to score. That’s why the Oilers signed him. He’s that piece of the puzzle.
Considering Warren Foegele was able to get 20 goals with this team last season and Skinner is a much better scorer than Foegele (their games are different), my prediction is 28 goals, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post 30.
This was an extremely solid signing by the Oilers. Skinner is the type of player Edmonton has needed on that second line for some time and while he’s one year older, he’s going to be playing with elite talent that will understand how to get him the puck in scoring positions. Skinner is savvy enough to figure out where to go and how to play with elite-level players. He shouldn’t need a lot of time to get up and running.