Maple Leafs’ Chances of Keeping the 5th Overall Pick in the 2026 Draft

It was a difficult season for the Toronto Maple Leafs as there were hardly any positives to take from a disastrous 2025-26. As fans in Leafs Nation try to find any hope, the only thing they have is the team’s first-round pick in this year’s draft. While they currently hold onto it as they managed to retain it at seasons end, they still have to worry about the draft lottery that’ll take place on May 5^th.

Despite having the pick, there’s still a chance that they can lose it to the Boston Bruins if a team below them wins one of the two lotteries. While that’ll make matters worse given what transpired this season, there’s still some hope heading into the lottery.

Breaking Down the Maple Leafs’ Odds

To summarize, for those that miss the playoffs, teams are entered into a lottery at a chance to win the first overall selection. The team that finished last ends up with the best odds at selecting Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg, in this case the Vancouver Canucks, with 18.5%. The lottery began in 1995 while undergoing changes throughout the years.  

From 1995 to 2015, there was only one lottery held to determine the winner of the first overall selection. In 2016, they had a three-draw system for the top three selections. In 2021, the current system, adapted a two-lottery format for the first two picks with the winner moving up a maximum of 10 spots. 

Since 2006, nine teams that had the best odds retained the first overall pick, three of those times happening the last five years. In those five years, four of the five drafts saw more movement within the top five than outside compared to the previous years. The 2025 draft being the only anomaly where team’s 10^th and lower won the lottery; the New York Islanders moving from 10^th to first to draft Matthew Schaefer and the Utah Mammoth moving up from 14^th to fourth to draft Caleb Desnoyers. 

What does this mean for the Maple Leafs with the current system?

The Islanders and Mammoth had extremely low odds and won. Given the movement over the last five years and seeing as how they own the fifth overall pick for now, there’s still a possibility and hope that the Maple Leafs can retain their own pick or even move up within the draft lottery. Per Tankathon, the Maple Leafs have a combined roughly 42% chance to either keep their pick or move up in the lottery based on the odds. While they also have a 44% chance of falling out and losing the pick, the odds are now a coin flip but there’s still a chance to keep it.

Since 2006, a team that was fifth overall moved up three times to win a draft lottery. Those teams were; the Chicago Blackhawks in 2007, selecting Patrick Kane, the New Jersey Devils in 2017 selecting Nico Hischier first overall and the Devils again in 2022 moving up to select Simon Nemec second overall. Those odds are still low to attain, but if you still want to be optimistic; it has worked out for teams to get a bump in draft positioning.

It would’ve been better if the Maple Leafs wouldn’t have gotten two points from overtime loses or earn a loss in general to increase their odds and move to third overall. Given how most of the movement within this new draft lottery system has been mostly at the top of the board, there’s still a chance for some hope for the Maple Leafs to stay where they are. 

Running the Tankathon Simulator

Every Maple Leafs fan out there are probably a nervous wreck of what could happen if the Maple Leafs lose the pick. Losing it to a rival that has had your number over the years isn’t ideal and the fact that there are other conditions on the pick alone, the best thing now is to try and keep it rather than worrying about confusing scenarios.

If you’re focussing on the now and wanting to know if the Maple Leafs will keep the pick, the Tankathon Draft Simulator is a great way to pass the time until the draft lottery. For myself, I did a little experiment on the Maple Leafs fifth overall pick with the tool. I ran the simulator 40 times- four sets of 10 scenarios at different times just to have a decent sample size- and recorded the results. I was genuinely surprised with them.

Out of the 40 hits, the Maple Leafs managed to retain the fifth overall pick 15 times, 37.5% of the hits. Which is higher than their original 24.5% of retaining the fifth overall selection. They moved up to second or first overall nine times which came out to 22.5%. While I know that these results mean nothing and that the chances of losing the pick still remain, there’s that chance where things could still work out for the Maple Leafs if everything falls into place.

Final Thoughts

It’s not ideal that former general manager Brad Treliving is leaving a valuable pick to chance. No one really thought the Maple Leaf would regress this bad, but here we are as history has repeated much like it did in the past. It’s definitely a risk that shouldn’t have been made, especially not making it a top-10 protected pick instead of top-five as it really limits the odds even further.  

However, if the Maple Leafs keep the pick, they have a chance to draft a blue-chip prosect as the projected top-five are potential game changing prospects. While McKenna or Stenberg would be great, getting potential defenders in Chase Reid, Keaton Verhoeff or Carson Carels is still something to look forward to.